Warren Sharp's Sharp Football Analysis

Sharpfootballanalysis.com by Warren Sharp

2011-11-22T19:07:00.002-05:00

For all future posts and updates from Warren Sharp, please view www.sharpfootballanalysis.com.

Warren Sharp proudly presents the new Sharp Football Analysis

2010-06-24T12:23:00.004-05:00

Warren Sharp here, to share my new website: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

It is completely redesigned for the 2010 NFL season. I encourage you to check it out, review the play records that are 100% documented and posted after each and every play kicks off.

Best,
Warren Sharp

New Rates Announced!

2009-07-07T13:28:00.005-05:00

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Sharp Football Analysis has announced new rates for the 2009-2010 NFL season, as well as an unbelievable offer for subscribers.

Proceed directly to www.sharpfootballanalysis.com for all details!

Super Bowl Results and 2009-2010 Updates!

2009-04-16T09:31:00.004-05:00

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My Computer System predicted a 4 point Steelers SB Win, and they won by 4 points exactly!! 7-3 (70%) in all Super Bowl plays:

Pit ML, Ari+14/Under 53.5 Teaser, and 5-2 (71%) in Prop Bets:
+285 Russell to score a TD, +100 H. Miller Over 3.5 Catches and 3 other winners!

In the playoffs, I had a solid performance. I had winning weekends on three of the four weeks: Wild Card, Conference Championship, and the Super Bowl. The only weekend I finished at .500 or below was in the Divisional Round. A spectacular run to end a tremendous season!

My computer system has been "money" all season, which is now the third season since I created it that I can say the same exact thing: this system is brilliant and has never disappointed. Predicting the exact margin of victory for the Super Bowl game and hitting 67% on its totals plays this season (41-20 combined) was tremendous. I could have not asked for a better performance from it.

And adding my personal plays into the mix, I released a total of 120 plays during the regular season (an avg of 7 per week) and won 80 of them, losing only 40. That is 67% with 7 plays per week. There is NO OTHER SERVICE in the NFL who had anywhere near that type of success in 2008. Not one.

And I only charged between $12 to $15 per week last year. Looking at my "price per play" on average in 2008, I released 120 plays and charged between $12 (for season subscribers) and $15 (for weekly subscribers) per week. That equates to between $1.70 and $2.13 per play! And I hit 67%! While my competition charges between $20 and $100 per play and is lucky to hit 58%. Compare that to other services who:

- "charge per play" of $20 to $25, so you would have to spend $75+ to receive all my weekly plays.
- $89 or $99 prices for one single play.
- $179 for one week of plays.

I charged one extremely low fee for every single play I put out that week. I keep my prices reasonable, I keep my win percentages unbeatable, and that puts money in your pockets and makes us both happy.

I hope all of you have a safe and enjoyable offseason and are profitable in your other ventures. I am looking forward to the time off to "recharge" and will be ready to go in August with all of my plays and detailed analysis for yet another NFL season! I hope you decide to come along for another successful and profitable campaign in the 2009-2010 NFL season!

Updates for 2009-2010:

1. I now have a feed for this website. It is easy to sign-up your email address and you will get daily updates in your inbox to inform you of my posts here. I will use this feed throughout the season in order to let my subscribers know when new plays are posted during the week.

2. I have a sign-up notification for the Summer Sale which will occur this summer for packages for 2009 and 2010. In order to first know about the updates, send an email to: sharpfootballSummerSale@gmail.com with the subject of "Summer Sale Sign-up" and you will receive all information on packages and sales when announced!

3. I will still post updates on this blog site to notify when sales occur, when plays are posted, and other general information. But the main site: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com is where you will find all other updates in terms of information about the site, purchasing plays, and accessing plays. This blog will be a tracking and announcement site to use in combination w/ the main site. The main .com site will always be the main site.

4. I plan to be pretty aggressive with my packages this season. Aggressive in terms of keeping the prices below any competition and quite reasonable, even though I outpreformed any and all competition in any price bracket, for the goal of spreading the availability to numerous people. I would make the same if I charged $180/week (Like another more famous and way poorer performing handicapper does) to 10 people as I could if I charged $15/week to 120 people. One scenario I help 10 wealthy people. The other scenario I help 120 "average joes". Count me as a person who would rather help hundreds of "average joes" who can't afford the prices and the losing plays from the more famous touts, than join their ranks and overcharge for plays that don't live up to expectations!

So sign up for the Summer Sale announcements via email, sign up for the blog feed via email so you never have to wonder when the updates to this blog are made, and remember: I never share your email with anyone. I would not want that to happen to me, so I don't do it to you. Ever, period.

Wildcard Round Update!

2009-01-05T10:07:00.003-05:00

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2-0 (100%) Personal Plays Wild Card Round and
3-1 (75%) All Recommended Plays Wild Card Round
3 Wins covered by an avg of 11 pts each and 1 Loss by just 1 point (missed extra point)

Ari+1 (Pers Play, W 30-24) ... Bal-3 (Pers Play, W 27-9) ... SD/Ind Under 51 (W Tot 40) ... Bal/Mia Over 37 (L Tot 36)

Click to Purchase Plays for Divisional Round Now!

2008 Playoff Packages

2008-12-30T10:23:00.004-05:00

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The 2008 NFL Postseason is almost upon us. My record the past several years has been tremendous:

Playoff Results, Last 3 Years
Fully Documented!!

07-08: 10-4 (71%)
06-07: 6-2 (75%)
05-06: 16-2 (89%)

Last 3 Years Combined: 32-8 (80%)

Purchase Plays HERE!

For Detailed Results, Write-ups and the Link to the 16-2 Documented Record from 2005-06, Click HERE.

Playoff Detail

By Round (All Years Combined):

Wild Card round 12-2 (86%)
Divisional round 10-4 (71%)
Conference Championship round 6-0 (100%)
Super Bowl 3-1 (75%)

By Year:

07-08:

Wild Card round I went 5-1
Divisional round I went 4-2
Conference Championship round I went 1-0
Superbowl I went 0-1

Therefore in 07-08, I went 10-4 overall (71%), and my system did pretty well also, going 3-0 in system overs. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, but did not do any detailed writeups for them.

06-07:

Wild Card round I went 4-0 (Link to one of my writeups)
Divisional round I went 0-2
Conference Championship round I went 1-0 and in addition, issued a very large play prior to the game on Ind to win the SB at +150 odds (Link to writeup)
Superbowl, therefore, I had Ind+150 ML very large, 1-0

Therefore in 06-07, I went 6-2 overall (75%). Note that I did advise putting a very small amount on Chi+ points as a slight middle opportunity for the SB, but a much smaller amount than was on Ind+150 ML. I posted all of these plays on message boards for verification, and made two writeups, which are linked to above.

05-06:

The other verifiable postseason results were in 05-06. In the 2006 postseason, I participated in the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. (Link to Verify)

I was 15-1 on sides and totals up until the Superbowl, where I liked the Steelers and the Under. I played the Steelers but waited to play the total until I saw that I could guarantee the #1 position before the game even started if I made the same totals play as the #2 participant, which was the Over. Therefore, I took the Over. The Steelers won SU and ATS, and the game went Under. As a result, instead of finishing 17-1 (94%) I went 16-2 (89%), but enjoyed the game much more knowing I was already crowned the Champion. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of the Wagerline contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Week 16 Plays are NOW AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE

2008-12-17T12:55:00.009-05:00

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Week 16 Plays which are Now Available for purchase:

3 ATS Computer System Plays
2 Unders Computer System Plays
3 Weather Alert Plays

The Weather Plays (1-0 thus far in 08) are vital to get immediately, as these lines likely will continue to shift.
Personal Plays will be available on Friday night or Saturday morning!

Proceed to www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/purchase.html to purchase

Week 15 Results and Playoff Results

2008-12-15T13:33:00.000-05:00

Very subpar Week 15 based on my high standards:

All Week 15 Plays Combined went 5-5-1 (50%), and drops me now to 23-10-1 (70%) on all plays released the last 3 weeks.

2-3-1 Personal/Weather Plays brings the YTD mark to 36-18-2 (67%) YTD
1-1 Overs Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 10-4 (71%) YTD and 31-5 (86%) the L2 Years
2-1 Unders Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 29-13-2 (69%) YTD
1-2 ATS Computer System Plays brings the YTD mark to 42-22-1 (66%) YTD

(There was overlap in the plays which accounts for the individual plays not totaling to 5-5-1. For instance, my 2 ATS Computer System Losses (Bal and NYG) both became personal plays, so those losses were counted twice, once in my ATS Computer System and once on my Personal/Weather plays.)

This was the first sub-.500 week in personal plays since Week 7, when I went 1-2 in personal plays. I rebounded in the next two weeks, Weeks 8 and 9, going 4-1-2 (80%) in personal plays, and will be working as hard as always to have the same rebound results to close out the regular season in Weeks 16 and 17.

I was asked how I have performed in the POSTSEASON, and since it is getting close, I thought I would share my results.

Playoff Summary, Last 3 Years

07-08: 10-4 (71%)
06-07: 6-2 (75%)
05-06: 16-2 (89%) - note, I played most every side/total for every game as it was for a Contest, see below.

Last 3 Years Combined: 32-8 (80%)

Playoff Detail

07-08:

Wild Card round I went 5-1
Divisional round I went 4-2
Conference Championship round I went 1-0
Superbowl I went 0-1

Wild Card round I went 4-0 (Link to one of my writeups)
Divisional round I went 0-2
Conference Championship round I went 1-0 and in addition, issued a very large play prior to the game on Ind to win the SB at +150 odds (Link to writeup)
Superbowl, therefore, I had Ind+150 ML very large, 1-0

Week 15 Plays are Now Available for Purchase

2008-12-10T08:48:00.002-05:00

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So far I have posted on my website:

3 ATS Computer System Plays 41-20-1 (68%) YTD
2 Overs Computer System Plays 9-3 (75%) YTD and 30-4 (88%) the L2 Years!
3 Unders Computer System Plays 27-12-2 (69%) YTD

Along with a large amount of analysis and weather related information. This is the first time in 3 weeks that the Overs system has produced a play and it gave us two this week.

My Personal Plays which are 34-15-2 (69%) YTD will be Updated on Friday Night.

Only 3 weeks left in the regular season, and my plays have been very solid all year, but especially impressive the last several weeks:

For the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

I went 3-1 (75%) in Personal Plays last week and was 8-3 (73%) overall and was 10-2 (83%) in Week 13.

Please visit: www.sharpfootballanalysis/purchase.html to purchase all my Week 15 plays for only $15!

Remarkable 8-3 (73%) Week 14!!

2008-12-05T21:58:00.007-05:00

After hitting on MNF, I improved to 3-1 for Personal Plays! Week 14 Results:

3-1 (75%) Personal Plays brings the mark to 34-15-2 (69%) YTD
4-1 (80%) Unders Computer System Plays brings the mark to 27-12-2 (69%) YTD
1-1 (50%) ATS Computer System Plays brings the mark to 41-20-1 (67%) YTD

Overall Week 14 Results: 8-3 (73%)

Plays generated from my computer system: 5-2 (71%)

All three losses were by fewer than 3 points ATS! One game was lost by 2.5 points ATS, the other was lost by 2 points ATS, and the third was lost by 1 points ATS. I have heard from a couple clients who "tease" my plays, and therefore went undefeated!

In total, 11 plays were released, weekly subscription is only $15, therefore each play was just $1.36 and they hit 73%!!!

This on the back of a 10-2 (83%) Week 13 and a 9-5 (64%) Week 12.

Therefore for the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

I have posted 2 writeups from the plays I shared w/ my clients on the main page of my website. This is the first time since Week 9 that I am letting you take a peak at what I offer in terms of methodical, detailed and thorough analysis and write-ups. To view these, simply click: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Incredible "Computer System Sweep" Week 13 for Sharp Football Analysis!!

2008-12-01T08:14:00.001-05:00

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My computer system plays were dialed in this week. System Unders went 4-0 (100%), System ATS went 2-0 (100%) w/ two underdogs, 1 of which won SU, and since there were no computer generated Overs (not enough value) I posted the two largest leans, and both hit for 2-0 (100%)!

That totals to 6-0 for official systems plays, and 2-0 for overs leans, for an
8-0 (100%) Major Computer System Sweep!

Personal plays went 3-2 (60%) with 1 of the losses by 1 point ATS (TB-4).

Week 13 Results:
3-2 (60%) Personal Play brings the mark to 31-14-2 (69%) YTD
2-0 (100%) Overs System "leans" do not add to the mark of 9-3 (75%) YTD and still 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!
4-0 (100%) Unders System plays brings the mark to 23-11-2 (68%) YTD
2-0 (100%) ATS system plays brings the mark to 40-19-1 (68%) YTD

Overall Week 13 posted plays: 10-2 (83%)

The Overs system (my strongest and most accurate computer system) is still an incredible 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!

Tremendous Week 12 Results

2008-11-23T20:17:00.002-05:00

Tremendous Week 12 for Sharp Football Analysis:

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) and totals went 5-1 (83%) including the two Overs plays that went 2-0 (100%).

This brings the Overs system (my strongest and most accurate computer system) to a record of 30-4 (88%) the past two seasons!!

Week 12 Results:
2-1 (67%) Personal Play brings the mark to 28-12-2 (70%) YTD
2-0 (100%) Overs System plays Sweep brings the mark to 9-3 (75%) YTD
3-1 (75%) Unders System plays brings the mark to 19-11-2 (63%) YTD
2-3 (40%) ATS system plays brings the mark to 38-19-1 (67%) YTD

The recommendation to take Houston +3 also hit on the ML, which is not part of the tally above.

Week 12 Plays

2008-11-19T11:18:00.002-05:00

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On my website, I currently have:

4 ATS Computer System Plays which are 36-16-2 ATS (69%) so far this season
2 Overs System Plays which are 7-3 (70%) so far this season
4 Unders System Plays which are 16-10-2 (62%) so far this season

I will post my personal plays, which are 26-11-2 ATS (70%), on Friday evening.

To view the plays, visit the website.

Week 11 Summary

2008-11-18T10:26:00.003-05:00

Week 11 involved two losses which we'll bounce back from but were very difficult to swallow at the time. The first was the Over in the TB/Min game. The second was the Steelers game, stolen by the referees.

The only 4pm game we had was completely robbed from us. The Steelers game ended in what should have been a cover, and the ref admitted his mistake in taking the TD off the board (Click for Link) Not to mention the 13-1 penalty advantage for SD, or the fact that the only SD TD was due to a phantom pass interference call on the Steelers. The Steelers had double the yards on the game (410 to 213) and had 13 more minutes in time of possession. But it wasn't just a bad beat, it was a stolen game by the official, which makes it so tough.

What makes it even more difficult to take is the fact the ref's decision came:

A. 10 minutes after the game was over
B. After the points were on the board
C. After an official review so they had a chance to make sure they were right
D. After decision from the booth which would allow the play to stand
E. After a 2nd officials huddle that then ignored booth review and provided a wrong ruling

Also factor the fact that they removed the points from the board 10 minutes after the game was over, and then seconds later, the official openly admitted that what he did was wrong and the TD should have stood.

But even before that game, the TB/Min Over play was the definition of a bad beat. The two teams needed to put up over 38.5 points to win the play. They put up 32, so all we needed was 1 more TD to cover. Anyone who didn't watch the game probably thought it was a defensive struggle. But the reality was TB marched the ball up the field with ease time and time again, getting inside the Minnesota 20 on five occasions, but walked away with only 1 TD to show for it. Want more? How about the fact that the teams COMBINED for THREE PUNTS!!! TB only punted once! Min only punted twice!

More to make you sick: Here are drives where TB advanced the ball into Min territory only to kick FGs or fumble:

TB reached the -
Min 37 - TB turnover on downs
Min 17 - TB FG
Min 3 - TB FG
Min 30 - TB fumble
Min 10 - TB FG
Min 8 - TB FG
Min 23 - TB missed FG
Min 28 - TB kneel down - end of game

I was sick to my stomach after that terrible performance. We got the TB cover, but it was closer than it ever should have been. TB dominated that game in every respect, but was totally worthless once in scoring range. Which was quite surprising, considering prior to this game, Minnesota's defense was in the bottom half of red zone efficiency, allowing a TD on 56% of trips inside the red zone. TB was inside 5 times and came away with only 1 TD, and was inside the 30 (for a 47 yd FG or closer) on two other occasions and walked away with zero points.

Normally I don't dwell on the bad beats, but to have two in one day, one of which was a pure robbery and the other would be impossible to believe if you read the stats I just listed above and then looked at the final score of the game. It took these outcomes to provide the first ATS computer system losing weekend of the season, finishing 2-3 ATS instead of 3-2, due to the Steelers game. Rest assured, I am not forgetting that fact and will be working harder than ever this week to ensure we get back on track and reestablish the record I earned up to this point.

Week 10 Summary

2008-11-10T08:18:00.007-05:00

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What a terrific way to start out my new website: www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Week 10 was one of many great weeks here at Sharp Football Analysis, but was especially rewarding given the customers who joined and participated in my first weekend of plays, and I was pleased to reward them.

Personal plays went 2-1 (67%) on the day, with solid winners on NYJ and NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my Personal Plays to 25-10-2 (71%). And I am now 6-2-2 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

ATS System Plays VERY strong, going 3-1 ATS with winners on KC, Atl, NE.

That brings the YTD mark for my ATS Computer System Plays to 34-13-1 (72%). And I am now 10-5-1 (67%) the last 3 weeks.

Overs System also did well. One play was moved off the board on Saturday due to potential inclement weather in Chicago (but nearly went over the total even with poor conditions). The only remaining Overs System play, NYG/Phi Over 43, went over with ease, hitting 44 with 11:24 left to go in the 3rd quarter, an easy over. Last season, many of these top plays went over soon after halftime.

That brings the YTD mark for the Overs System to 7-2 (78%), and is now 3-0 (100%) the last 4 weeks.

Unders System underperformed, going 2-3 in Week 10 (40%), though I did warn on Wednesday about the NO/Atl total being the highest on the board (those games seem to go over more than under).

That brings the YTD mark for the Unders System to 14-8-1 (64%) and is now 9-3-1 (75%) the last 3 weeks.

You can sign up NOW for the season long pass for a 20% discount or you can wait until Wednesday to sign up for just Week 11!!

Important Announcement from Sharp Football Analysis

2008-11-04T15:05:00.003-05:00

Thank you for your interest in my website and newsletter for the first 9 weeks of the 2008 NFL season. For over half the season, I provided completely free plays and analysis which, of course, took up a lot of my personal time. Much more than you perhaps can imagine. My write-ups are detailed and come from hours of research, and my computer system is going strong as it has for the past several years. And for over half the season, if you followed my plays, you would be doing very well. 23-9-2 (72%) in all plays I e-mailed out. If you decided to use my plays to legally bet on the games:

A $25/game bettor should be up $328 so far this year.
A $50/game bettor should be up $655 so far this year.
A $100/game bettor should be up $1,310 so far this year.
A $250/game bettor should be up $3,275 so far this year.

I know I have mentioned this before, but of all the tout services who are monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, there is NOT A SINGLE ONE (thru Week 8 Results as Week 9 Results are not posted yet) who has released 30+ plays and is hitting 72% for the season. Yet that is what I have been able to accomplish, with assistance from my system, my research databases, and my hard work each and every week so far this season.

Other touts charge a fair price for their plays. If you found my site through Fox Sports Radio, you know they have a famous handicapper on their show. What you may not know is that he charges $119 for just one week of his plays.

Other touts charge $65+ for one single game. It would be one thing if they won at a very high rate. Unfortunately, the vast majority of professionals are much better marketers and professional harassers than they are quality handicappers.

I have read the e-mails sent by people offering to donate money and I have never replied to them. I was doing this for free and enjoyed helping people out. But what I found was: people always want more. They were not satisfied with just getting my personal plays, which did go 4-1-2 the past 2 weeks (80%) and 72% for the season. I suppose I don't blame them for wanting my system plays and analysis of those plays because my system's record has been very solid thus far. ATS my system has produced 44 plays since week 4, just over 7 per week, and has hit 72%. My totals systems have again been producing superb results (see records below). However, when trying to figure out the logistics of such an operation, it was a difficult challenge: I currently send out about 3 e-mails a week. If I added system plays to my mailings, we would have 4 and at times 5, depending on weather related plays. It is a fair amount of work to type up these and send them to the many people from the several e-mail addresses I have. I also posted my plays on my website and then on message boards, all of which took up a lot of my time. So writing up my system plays and sending those out would certainly add more time to my already busy schedule. And would be in addition to the most important things: running my system, performing research, selecting my top plays and providing write-ups.

After much thought and consideration, I decided to do the following:

I started a website, and paid for hosting and support. It is:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

I now have a new e-mail address: sharp@sharpfootballanalysis.com (but you can always contact me as a backup at my old sharpfootballanalysis@gmail.com )

The plan going forward is as follows:

You can essentially purchase "access" to a single page within my website which I will update throughout the week. You can being viewing this page on Wednesdays of each week, when I will have my system plays posted. I will then add a brief comment on the plays and any information I think you should know at the time, including which plays I would be leery of playing yet due to injuries. I will still be providing my "personal plays" either on Friday evening or Saturday morning, as well as Sunday and Monday updates. This week Thursday games start in the NFL, so any insights or plays for Thursday night will be posted on Thursdays. After Monday, you will need to purchase "access" for another week. I also post weather plays and will post those at any point in time starting on Wednesday.

So, what kinds of plays will you get over the course of one week?

Personal Plays - 23-9-2 (72%) YTD - Typically the top 3 or 4 ATS Plays per week and strong totals selections. The number of selections may vary week to week but on average it has been 3. All personal plays will include write-ups of varying length and are supported by hours of research. For Sunday games, these will be issued on Friday evening or Saturday morning, with an update on Sunday morning. For Thursday and Monday games, any plays will be issued on game day.

ATS Computer System Plays - 31-12-1 (72%) YTD - Usually approximately 5 to 7 plays per week, these are released on Wednesday and are generated by my computer system. The goal for you, the user, is to find the best line possible between Wednesday and kickoff. Usually, unpopular underdogs are best played closer to kickoff and popular favorites are be best played earlier in the week.

Totals Computer System Plays - my computer system usually generates a number of rated totals plays on a weekly basis. The strongest of these plays have come from the "Top Totals System" which may release only one play a week or less and is typically a targeted Overs play. That system went 21-1 last season and is 6-2 (75%) this season. Other totals systems generate additional plays, Overs and Unders. All totals plays will be released on Wednesday.

Weather Alert Plays - these plays generally occur in the colder months in more Northern states, though there could be a weather play in any location predicted to experience inclement weather. Plays last year included games in Pittsburgh, New England, Seattle and Chicago to name a few cities. I study weather from a variety of lesser-known specialty sources and typically issue these plays mid-late week, as the weather systems become more defined. Getting on these totals early, before the general public is aware of the weather situation, is the most important goal. Not all plays with inclement weather will be played. The goal, as always, is to find those that have the most value. These plays will be issued whenever they arise, anytime after Wednesday.

Of course, all personal plays will come with my in depth research, trends and analysis, each and every week. While perhaps not as convenient as checking your e-mail to find my plays, I think it will be quite easy to check one single page each and every week that gets updated to add my plays, insight, and analysis I have to share with you. You won't have to wonder what my system plays are, you won't have to wonder exactly when the e-mail will go out, and you will have the easy ability to contact me should any problems arise.

I have decided to do all of this for only $15 per week. A $25 bettor should have already made $328 so far this year on my plays, and $15 is only 4.5% of that. $15 is only 2% of what a $50 has made on my plays, and is only 1% of what a $100 bettor has made on my plays.

Again, you are not paying $15 for 3 "personal plays" per week. You will be getting all my system plays, which include totals and ATS, as well as my write-ups, trends and information. The goal is not just to provide winning plays. If that was the case, I could just tell you 3 teams to take a week. The goal is to also teach you about my handicapping methods and help you learn how to spot good situations, and equally as important, when to back down from forcing a play.

My system records from this season and prior seasons are posted below. As you know, past results do not guarantee future success, and I have indicated several times on the website that I in no way guarantee any plays or outcome, nor do I guarantee a certain level of success the rest of the season. The only thing I can tell you is that my system is what it is, it has done very well, I have not changed anything and I will continue to work as hard as I can towards achieving results which meet and exceed my own high standards.

Therefore, this is the last official newsletter from my gmail address and I hope you enjoyed the plays and information I provided free of charge for the first 9 weeks of the season. I hope I can continue to provide high quality service and winning plays to you at http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com and have enjoyed helping you learn and benefit from my plays for over half the season.

Thank you,
Sharp

2008 - 2009 Results thru Week 9:

Personal Plays: 23-9-2 (72%)

System Plays:

ATS System Plays: 31-12-1 (72%)
Top Overs Plays: 6-2 (75%)
Overs #2 Plays: 12-9 (59%)
Unders Plays: 12-5 (71%)

2008 Note: ATS System Plays were simplified and combined to provide for easier following since 2007.

2007-2008 Results:

Personal Plays: 58-36-3 (62%)

System Plays:

Top Overs Plays: 21-1 (95%)
Overs #2 Plays: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)

2007 Note: System was further developed and additional types of plays were generated since 2006.

2006-2007 Results:

System Plays:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006 Results:

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%.

Note on Records:

System records from 2007-2008 were and posted on message boards online on a weekly basis for verification, as were all personal plays. Personal plays from 2008-2009 were posted on message boards and e-mailed to subscribers on a weekly basis. System plays from weeks 7-9 were sent to Fox Sports Network's "First Team on Fox" for validation, during which they went 11-6-1 ATS (65%).

Past results will not guarantee future perfomance.

MNF

2008-11-03T13:57:00.006-05:00

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First a side note: Please check your e-mail tomorrow (Tuesday) as I will be sending out important information regarding my system plays and personal plays for Week 10.

As for MNF:

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you or persuade you.

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched.

System:

Side: Redskins, winning by 5
Total: I've got a predicted line in my top system of 41.5. It is very close to a play but is a fraction off being recognized as a top play, however, only if you get the Over 36.5. If you can only get 37 it would not be as close to a play on the over (obviously). Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5.

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith. For the Skins, will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hardhitting home loss to the defending superbowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, that remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

For the Redskins:

In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.
Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.
Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.
The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.
The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.

Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).
In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS
Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

For the Steelers:

Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog
The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.
Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.
The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.

Week 9 Review

2008-11-03T08:45:00.003-05:00

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A very solid 2-1 (67%) day. Both underdog plays won outright and the Ten play lost by 1 point ATS. Putting my mark to 23-9-2 (72%) ATS for the season. The 6 system plays I have released the last two weeks (3 last week and 3 this week) went 4-1-1 ATS (80%). Extremely strong results the last 2 weeks from the top plays (in my opinion) from my computer system.

The five computer system plays I sent to Czaban on Thursday went 3-2 (60%) for Week 9, putting my 3 week stretch of sending them my computer system plays to an impressive 11-5-1 (69%) mark.

The only good thing about the 1 point ATS loss by Ten was that those who teased my plays, which I have heard back from a couple of you, enabled you guys to go undefeated so congrats on your wins.

I do have a computer system play for the game tonight, and will complete my evaluation today to determine if I want to include it as a personal play, and send out what I've got later today.

Congrats to all who have followed my plays for the first 9 weeks of this season. Hitting 72% on 34 releases is as solid as can be, but I still think I can do even better. And my computer system certainly has been leading me in the right direction and has produced extremely impressive results itself, and those who have been asking for my computer system plays the last few weeks, your wish may be granted sooner than you think.

2008 Week 9 Plays

2008-10-30T13:15:00.019-05:00

2008 Week 9 Plays:

Mia +3.5
Ten -4
Bal +1.5

Writeups:

Mia+3.5

Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)
I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.
Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.
Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.
After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.
After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.
I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.
This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.

I also want to dispel the myth that teams who took a beating the week before the bye come back w/ a vengeance the following game.

Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.
Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.
Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.

If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that Denver of the past 3 seasons is not the Denver you knew from the 90s with Elway and Davis, or even the Denver from early 2000s w/ Plummer and Portis. In my research, the main stat that seems to support Denver is that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 SU off their bye week under Shanahan. Definitely impressive, and something to be strongly considered AND further investigated. One thing you should know is regular Sunday afternoon games are bet much differently than MNF games, so first we need to eliminate the two MNF games (1 ATS W, 1 ATS L). Second, you should realize that divisional games are different from non-divisional games. Different feel, different energy when playing a twice-a-year rival vs. a team from across the country that you haven't played in 3 years.

So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.

Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where game time temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.

Ten -4

First before trends, I want to get into a little lesson I will call: The "Myth of the Rested vs. Unrested team" a.k.a the "Myth of the Short Week vs. the Bye Week team"

We have one team who is off a MNF appearance and the other team was on a bye last week, resting and getting healthy. One team has 8 more days of rest, and if you consider that the players don't actually get home until Tuesday morning MNF games, you could argue 9 more days of rest and preparation. So how has it affected teams? Shouldn't the team w/ the rest and relaxation and preparation dominate?

All teams in this situation, off MNF, whose opponent had a bye, are 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS since 2003.
In non-divisional matchups, they are 10-3 SU and ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS since last season.
If they play at home, they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, convering an average 5 point line by 7 points and winning SU by 12.
If they are home favorites, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS covering an average 5.5 point line by 8 points.

So as you can see, anyone who wants to play Green Bay solely because they are rested off a bye and primed to upset a team on a short week, needs to consider other reasons why they think GB can win. On to the trends:

Undefeated teams after week 6 who just played on MNF and covered in the win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 the following week since 1990. The only non-cover was the Colts by 14 over the Texans, when the spread was -17.
Teams who won on MNF by 10+ points and are favored the next week by between 4 and 7 points are 9-3 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 6 points and winning SU by an average of 12 points since 2002.
The Titans are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after facing the Colts. They only beat the Colts once, and were 1-0 ATS in their next game.
If it is the first matchup w/ the Colts, the Titans come out even stronger the following week, going 3-0 ATS and SU, and covering the spread by an average of 18 points. However, all three games they were underdogs, something very important to consider.
Teams who won in upset fashion as a home underdog prior to the bye and now are road underdogs after the bye are 0-6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS since 2003, losing SU by an average of 14 points.
Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are facing a non-divisional opponent as a favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
Another trend I have favors Ten and is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS dating back to 1990 and is 5-0 since 2002, tallying up exactly 1 win per season with the exception of not applying for a game in 2004. While not blowouts, the teams did cover an average 4 point and won SU by an average of 9 points.

Tennessee has only played 1 game on a short week following MNF in the last 4 years, and they lost SU and ATS. But don't read into that. It was a game in Cincy last year, where Ten was without Albert Haynesworth for the third game in a row, they were a mere 5-5 SU and had lost their 2nd straight on Monday IN DENVER and then played IN CINCY on the short week, they only rushed the ball for A TOTAL OF 61 yards, Vince Young threw for 0 TDs and 1 Int, and Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson was what we remember them to be, w/ CJ catching 3 TDs and 100+ yds and Cincy even rushed for 148 yards! Nothing could be further removed from the 7-0 Titans this season and the situation they face this week: playing back to back home games (not road games).

The last three seasons, bye week teams have performed extraordinary across the board, covering in 62% of their games after a bye since 2005. However, road underdog bye week teams are not performing nearly as well, hitting only 46% since 2005, and are a poor 5-9 ATS since 2007 (including 2-3 ATS in 2008). If the road underdog off a bye has a line of more than +3 but not double digits, they are 2-7 ATS since 2007 and 1-8 SU, failing to cover an average +7 point line by 11 points and losing SU by 18.

This game is one that pits people fading the undefeated team off a short week (which, by the way, these undefeated teams off MNF are actually 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU as a favorite after week 6) and are riding with a team who defeated the same Colts by a larger margin the week before. I, however, will stack my chips with Ten and will pull for a 5 point win for the cover.

Bal+1.5

Following a season in which they finished at or below .500, the Ravens are 9-1-2 ATS as a divisional underdog the following season since 1999, covering ATS by 7 points on average.
Following a season in which they finished better than .500, the Browns are 1-6 ATS as a divisional favorite the following season since 1995.
Divisional home favorites of a FG or less who had a winning record last season and won last week against a divisional foe with a losing record last season are 1-7-1 ATS and 2-7 SU since 1999.
Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2003 after playing 3 straight non-divisional opponents and then facing a divisional opponent in a sandwich game (non-divisional opponent up next).
Under the same rules, Baltimore is 4-2 ATS.

This game will come down to turnover margin. So I'll do a quick turnover analysis:

In the Colts game, Flacco threw 3 Ints and Baltimore had 2 fumbles lost, and received zero turnovers from the Colts, for a -5 margin. Baltimore, as you know, lost badly. In the 6 games where Baltimore had 1 or 2 turnovers (they have always turned the ball over at least once), they are 4-2 SU. Ignoring the road game in Indy, in Baltimore's two other road games (@ Pit and @ Mia), Baltimore only committed 1 turnover in each game and went 2-0 ATS. Flacco has shown just enough for me to not be leery enough to shy away from this bet. He hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't been a consistent turnover machine, either.

Cleveland also lost when turning the ball over 3+ times (in Bal earlier this year) but has not shown consistency when not turning the ball over. In their two games w/ 2 turnovers, they are 1-1 SU, and in their 4 games with zero turnovers they are 2-2 SU. So the good news is they have committed zero turnovers in 4 games, but the bad news: preventing turnovers does not seem to be enough to get Cleveland consistent wins. Looking even more into it, Cleveland is 1-2 SU at home, and their only win was when they received 3 turnovers anc committed zero. When they received one or zero turnovers, they lost both home games. Looking at turnover margin: On the season, they are 2-0 SU with a turnover margin of +3. But they are 1-4 SU when their turnover margin is +1 to -2.

In comparison, the Ravens are 0-1 with a turnover margin of -5. But they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when the turnover margin is zero or -1 (in their favor by 1). Based on the turnover analysis, as well as my system stats and trend analysis, it seems Baltimore may have enough to get the win SU so long as they do not lose the turnover battle. In their first meeting, in Baltimore, despite two Flacco Ints, Anderson threw 3 for Cleveland and Baltimore won with ease. If you think Baltimore can say even w/ Cleveland and not force Flacco to win the game w/ his arm (and thus reduce his liklihood of throwing Ints), Baltimore is a solid bet this weekend. The Browns are 3-5 SU and ATS since 2006 when the line is within a FG (+/-) if their opponent has a winning record. And how is this for a concluding trend:

Since 1995 (13.5 full seasons), the Browns have played 28 home games against divisional teams aside from the Bengals. They were home favorites in these games only 6 times! And their record as a divisional home favorite: 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS, losing SU on average by 11 points. And Cleveland has never been the home favorite in a divisional game (Cincy included) since 2004. In addition, Baltimore has been a divisional road underdog just once in a non-primetime game the last 3 years, and they won SU 31-7. I'm not about to tell you to load up on Baltimore, this is a game that will come down to turnovers and you never know exactly how the ball will bounce, but all things considered I do like Baltimore to cover the short line.

MNF Update, System Results and Weekend Summary

2008-10-27T07:45:00.024-05:00

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MNF Update:

I did not release a play for MNF because I felt the game would be close. My system had a play, but I did not release it simply because, although there was value, I was seeing trends for Indy and envisioning scenarios where Ten would have a tougher time covering than my system thought. For 3 quarters, my hunch was right. But they broke the game open in the 4th.

My system had Ten winning by 9, therefore 5 points of value, and in my Thursday update to Steve Czaban, I included that game along w/ my other five system plays for the week (total of 6 ATS). The system win last night improved the system to 4-1-1 ATS for Week 8 (80%), and improved the mark for the system since it started in Week 4 to 28-9-1 ATS (76%). I will update the text below to include the up-to-date record.

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System Results

A solid winning week here. Before I share a comment on the two pushes, I want to share how things are going w/ my computer system.

As I posted before, my computer system has been a guide to use in selecting plays. This week it was solid and worked out well. The 3 plays I did release to you from my system went 2-0-1 (Bal, Mia, NE). So we are back on track w/ me using it to pick winning plays.

I know a lot of you want to see all of the system plays and I respect that. For the past two weeks I have shared all my system plays with Steve Czaban and the First Team on FOX (great show and great bunch of guys, as you know).

What I do each week is I run the computer system, which provides a varitey of plays using different categories (top Home, top Dog, System #1, System #1, etc...) and then capture all the recommended ATS plays for the week. I then remove any play w/ key injury concerns (starting QB or RB primarily).

I know I posted this before, but since it started up for the year in Week 4, thru Week 6 (the week prior to sharing w/ the First Team), it went 20-6-1 (77%).

Week 7, as I sent to Czabe, it went 4-2 ATS (67%)
Week 8, this week, it went 4-1-1 ATS (80%)

So season to date, it has gone 28-9-1 ATS (76%), and in the two weeks I have shared it with them it has gone 8-3-1 (73%).

Two of the system generated plays I removed from this past week were KC+ and NO+, both due to injuries (KC was down to their 3rd string QB and RB Bush was out for NO). Both still won ATS (and NO won SU), but again, those do not count towards the record.

I also have two Overs systems, and two Unders systems. Historically my Overs hit better.

So far this season, my top Overs system (21-1 last year) is at 5-2 (71%).
My Overs system #2 won it's only selection on the weekend (NO/SD Over) and is at 11-6 (65%).
Last season my top overs system finished 95% and the second overs system finished at 79%.
My Unders systems historically get better later in the season, and this year looks to hold true. They were hitting 50% prior to this weekend, but went 4-0 this weekend and are now 9-5 (64%). Last season the unders finished at 58% and the season before at 66%.

I realize you guys would like to see all my plays, and I have considered it and just realize "it is under consideration". I wanted Czabe to track them and he can verify them to you. Again, I know this system works, it's worked for several years, and has not had a losing week at all so far this season.

However, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: My record so far this season, on picking games w/ the help of the system and releasing just a few games a week, has gone 21-8-2 (72%).

I can count on ZERO fingers the number of touts who are being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor who have released 30+ plays and are hitting above 72%.

There are many touts who are monitored by them, and they only post those who are above 50%. So when you look at their site and see it cut off at 50%, realize that there are numerous others below 50%. Per their grading sheet, there are 125+ services that are being tracked this season.

I want to bring this to your attention for a couple of reasons.

#1 - You guys want my system plays also, but doing things the way I have done them this season has resulted in a record that is unmatched by anyone I have seen tracked. 30+ plays and over 72%.

#2 - The majority of the touts who are being monitored release their plays for hundreds of dollars. Some guys release one single game for $70+ dollars! How much have you paid for my plays, which are doing better then theirs?

So yes, would you be winning even more if you had my system plays? Of course, they have done very well again this season. But I find it funny that some people still want to complain despite the fact that I am hitting at the rate I've been w/ my releases so far this season. Now, I will mention that if you have only followed my plays for a couple of weeks, you joined in at the worst possible time. But that was then. Absorbing two poor weeks, I am still 72% on the season, had an undefeated weekend in Week 8, and will look for the momentum to continue.

I also want you to realize it would be MUCH easier share a play by itself (no write-up) or a play with a generic writeup like many guys do. But I show you some trends and formulas I have, in addition to some statistical information. And you know if the play is backed by my computer system or not. I think it is a presentation that should not only help you make that single play, but my hope is you can learn from it and apply some of the trends or "line of thinking" towards your own handicapping in the future.

Please realize that I am not claiming to be the "best in the business", nor can I claim that I will hit 75% for the season or even that my future results will be as good as those YTD. But please tell me where you can get high percentage winning plays and write-ups/knowledge that you can actually learn from for 8 weeks so far this season? I don't know what will happen for Week 9, I can't predict if I have a winning week. But what I can tell you is I work as hard as I can and will continue as long as I keep at it to provide insight, analysis, and most of all, the best plays I can deliver.

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Weekend Summary

Now, I want to comment on some guys who ended up actually losing money on a undefeated week for me and for many who follow this site. I know the majority won this week, but I still will comment to those who did not:

The lines I post are the lines that are available online at the time of my newsletter. I sent out the plays FRIDAY AFTERNOON! That is plenty of time for you to get a good line. Anyone who could not get NE-7 either only has one shop and refused to buy to -7, or did not try hard enough. You generally should have several options when making a play:

1. Find the best line from a variety of outlets that you have. Maybe you can get the same line I post, maybe better, maybe worse.
2. Buy to whatever number you feel comfortable with.
3. Don't make a play.

#3 is the overriding point above all others. At any point I issue a play that you disagree with, no one is forcing you to make that play. Feel free to do whatever you want. If you can't get a solid line, again, feel free to not make a play. I can't tell you what to do if you only use a local and he's not at my number and he won't let you buy to it. I can't tell you what to do if you only use Pinnacle or The Greek (for example) and you can't get the number I post and don't want to buy to it.

But I can assure you, there is zero chance that I am simply posting a number that is not available online in order to tally up a win. I run my computer system on Tuesday. If I want, I can wager on plays whenever I want and use any choice of location to make the play. The point of this site is NOT to post plays that I can make. It is to help you guys make winning bets. For that reason, I post the line I can find at the time I send it out. Certainly, in many cases, lines move against me over the course of the week. I can get -6.5 -110 early in the week and by the time I e-mail it to you it's -7 -110. And maybe you don't make the play right away and you do so the next day and it's -7.5 -110. That is what happens to everyone in this business who releases plays to the public. But I'm not going to release -6.5 -110 if the line is now at -7.5. Those who have followed me for years know I don't play that game and never will.

There appears to be some confusion - my e-mail goes out on Friday or Saturday AM at the latest. I don't "post" the message on my website until Sunday. Therefore, if you are not getting the e-mail, of course you are not going to get these lines! And if you are just hanging out on the message boards on Sunday AM waiting for my post, you missed the whole boat. I've had some guys complain that by the time I posted the message on my website, the line was NE -8. If you got the e-mail I sent on Friday afternoon, it was -7. No one on this site should have waited until Sunday to play NE. No one.

Again, to reiterate, the the object of this site is for me to select games that hit at a high percentage for YOU, the follower, to win money on.

Carolina is another play that, at some places on Saturday, was -3.5 -110. On Sunday morning it was -4 at several places, and -4.5 at some others. I know it closed at -5 at many outlets, but again, I can't control what happens after I release a play. I won't release -4 unless I see some sites that have -4. If you have -4.5 or -5 and choose not to buy to -4, you really can't blame me for that. I'm not forcing you to buy down, nor am I forcing you to make a play at all.

To the guys who deal w/ local bookies who don't open shop until noon on Sunday(!!!), you already know this, but you won't be able to win much at that shop. Vegas lines already are shaded, and if you wait until the betting window is almost closed and the lines continue to move against you all week and all Sunday morning before you place your first wager, it is a recipe for disaster. Tim posted good advice in a comment from the previous post, so check that out.

It is unfortunate that this week we had two games of the four that had key numbers in the line and the game ended on those same key number. Anytime you have that situation, you are going to have a majority of pushes, and some losers and some winners. Yes, I have heard from guys who were able to go 4-0 this weekend due to buying points. Again, I don't recommend buying in general, as it forces your win % to increase in order to earn money. But there are occasions where it is wise and you can win if you are smart about it. The chances of another weekend where half of the plays I release push, and some people who get a worse line lose, are slim, but it may happen. I just ask for you to continue to use your best judgment and make sharp decision about your wagers and money management. After all, we all want to have more money at the end of the day than we started with.

Good luck and back later w/ MNF if I decide to release a play.

2008 Week 8 Plays

2008-10-24T08:41:00.013-05:00

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2008 Week 8 Plays:

Bal-7
Mia +2
NE-7
Added Sunday: Car-4

Writeups:

Bal-7

Since 2004, the Raiders are 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road as a non-divisional underdog of 7+ points, losing by an average of 18 points.
Since 2003, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in non-divisional games w/ a total under 39 points.
In the last 10 seasons, Oakland is 0-10 vs teams in the Eastern time zone, including 2-8 ATS, when being made a TD+ dog. On average they have failed to cover an avg 10 point line by 8 points and lost by 18.
After a win as a home underdog and going on the road as an underdog, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992, including 0-2 ATS the last two years. On average, they have failed to cover a 7 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 15.
Teams who won by 3 or less as home dogs last week and now are road dogs of 7+ are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in the last 10 seasons, on avg losing by 16.
The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after winning on the road as an underdog and then being favored at home, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 2006. Their only non-cover was as 12.5 point favorites in a divisional game in 2006, which they won by 10.

Remarkably, this is the only home game the Ravens play in a span of 7 full weeks. They played at home Oct 5 vs. the Titans, and have been on back to back road games. After this game, they have 3 straight road games, not returning to play another home game until the weekend before Thanksgiving. At home, the Ravens hold opponents to 11 points and put up 18. The Ravens are a very good team at home, and although Flacco has had his share of problems against top defenses, he has performed much better at home. He put together a nice road game in Miami, and I look for him to build off of that in the friendly confines of his home stadium.

A little statistical analysis which I don't normally provide: Oakland, while ranking #7 in ypr offensively, is not strong a rush team as it seems. They are definitely above avg, but not #7 in the league. They have faced, in order, the #31, 32, 17, 18, 19 ranked rushing defenses in terms of ypr prior to last week. Last week they faced the NYJ, who are #4, and Fargas averaged only 2.6 ypr and McFadden totaled 39 yards. And that was at home, which Oak won by 3 in OT and scored only 1 TD, despite being +3 in turnover margin and in the NYJ red zone 3 times. On the road, in Baltimore, Oakland will need a much better effort from their running game, especially when Bal leads the NFL in TOP (33:45 per game). Oak is 31st in the NFL in 3rd down conversions. Oakland is 0-9 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road "sandwich games" (H-A-H). While Oakland performed very well in its first east coast game this season, I look for Baltimore to control the ball and the game, and will lay the touchdown.

Mia+2

Buffalo is a mere 2-8 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite of less than 1 FG, including 0-4 SU and ATS since 1999.
Divisional home dogs who are off back to back losses who face a team off a win and the line is less than a FG are 22-9 ATS since 1990. If the line is 1 or 1.5, the underdog is 12-3 ATS since 1990.
In the first 12 weeks of the season, if one team has 3+ wins more than its opponent but is a road fav of less than 3 points, they are 2-9 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won SU by an average of 5 points.
One other trend that Miami falls under has gone 26-8-1 ATS since 2002, including 16-2-1 ATS since 2005.

With the exception of the Houston loss, where Miami was up by 5 w/ 1:40 left and Hou drove the length of the field to win w/ 0:03 left, the three losses Miami had were to teams who were very solid against the run: Bal #1 ypr (allowed), NYJ #4 ypr, Ari #14 ypr. In addition, Ari was a road game and the 2nd game of the season. Miami has come a long way from week 2. Their victories have come against teams they can run the ball on, including NE #25 ypr (allowed) and SD #18 ypr.

Buffalo is #17 in the league in ypr allowed, right near SD. But on the road, they have faced Ari (#31 ypr), StL (#16 ypr, #25 ypg) and they got lucky to face Jac when all their O-Line was beaten up. Jac averaged less than 2 ypr in week 1 and against Buf week 2, 3.6 ypr. Chances are, Buffalo's overall ypr allowed would decrease even more if Jac had the same running game they have now. This will be the toughest test yet for Buffalo to stop Miami's rushing attack, which is not spectacular, but is averaging 112 ypg and 4.1 ypr, good for 16th in the league, despite facing Bal and NYJ, both in the top 4 for rushing defense allowed.

I see a 5-1 Buffalo team who is eager to get its first divisional game won, against a Miami team that is looking to stay above .500 and looking to prove that upstart Buffalo is not going to start the season 6-1 in their house. Miami is not as bad as the final score looked against Baltimore, in fact, teams who lost to the Ravens the week before and are now underdogs of less than 1 TD are 11-4 ATS since 2003. Baltimore simply makes teams look bad, especially teams who like to run the ball. It may not be the cleanest game of the day, but Miami certainly has the potential to win this game at home.

NE-7

Teams who are off back to back underdog victories and are underdogs of 7+ points are 3-11-2 ATS since 1997 and 1-15 SU. On average they have lost by 14 points. If on the road, these teams are 0-14 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.
Since 2006, teams on the road have gone 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 SU.
Teams who have been underdogs of 7+ points for 3 weeks in a row but who are off a home upset win and now on the road are 0-10 SU since 1990, losing by an average of 16 points. If the line is not a double digit spread, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 20 points.
Teams who won as 7+ point home underdogs the week before by benefiting by a +4 turnover ratio are 0-5 ATS when playing as 6+ road dogs the following week. On average, failing to cover a 7+ point line by an additional 9 and losing by 16.
Since taking over New England, the Patriots have had 15 weekends where they played back to back home games without a bye in between. Of those 15, six were non-divisional home games not on MNF. The Patriots went 5-1 ATS, their only non-cover was a 10 point win as a 13 point favorite in 2006.
NE also falls into another trend which is 20-6 ATS since 2002 and is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons, including 6-1 ATS last season. On average covering a 10 point line and winning SU by 18 points.

I won't get into all the details of how St. Louis pulled out two remarkable underdog upsets, but suffice it to say, turnovers played a HUGE role. St. Louis on the road this season has generated, wait for it, ONE touchdown on a drive that started in their own territory. And in fact, that ONE TD came in Seattle, a team who is giving up 29 ppg. At the Redskins, the Rams scored their lone TD on a 76 yard fumble return. They had zero TDs at Philly. So you could also say that the Rams have scored exactly ONE offensive TD on the road this season, against the hapless Seahawks.

Since 2007, the Rams average less than 13 points on the road. Their 3 wins ATS out of 11 games came when they won the turnover battle, getting 2+ turnovers more than their opponent. If you take out the 37-29 upset victory over the Saints last season to earn their first win, the Rams scored less than 10 ppg average in their other 10 road games the past two seasons.

As far as the Rams playing outdoors, they have been extremely fortunate. Not that the weather will be bad in NE at kick (60 degrees) but the last time the Rams played in a northern city that did not have a dome and it was Week 7 or beyond was Buffalo and GB in back to back weeks in 2004. They lost both, scoring 17 in each and allowing 37 vs. Buf and 45 vs. GB.

Fortunately for NE, Cassel has only thrown 1 Int in his 3 home games. NE certainly is no world beater and I can see angles, particularly turnovers, which could lead to St. Louis winning SU. However, if the game plays out the way on average that it should, I think NE earns a cover and wins by 10.

Sunday AM UPDATE:

In reviewing my totals, the top play from my top system (5-2 YTD) is TB/Dal O40.5, however, I cannot firmly recommend this one as a play. Primarily due to Brad Johnson as QB. If Dal had Romo, I think this game does hit over the total. However, w/ the Cowboys secondary being banged up, it may somewhat even things out. If you are more of a risk-taker and you believe this game can go over, feel free to take the play.

The other total I was considering is at a site experiencing high winds and so I won't issue that as a play (Pit/NYG Over 42).

So officially, no totals to be issued but I wanted to share the play from my 5-2 system anyways.

My additional side selection is NOT a system play, but it is a play from my analysis:

Car -4

Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are not facing a non-divisional opponent as a home favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
After winning a divisional game by 10+ points the prior week, Carolina has not let down under John Fox vs. a non-divisional opponent the following week. They are 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by an avg score of 25-3 and all four games went under.
Since 2003, Arizona is 1-12 ATS playing on the road as dog of less than 7 in games outside their division in the NFC and are 0-13 SU.

My System

2008-10-21T13:10:00.004-05:00

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I am sure that most understand from reading THIS POST how my system operates and how I am using it. However, apparently some do not so I will attempt to clarify.

My system has nothing to do with trends and research. My system is a computer system I developed several years ago which I run each week and which shows me games that have value in the line, whether sides or totals. It generates a number of plays each week.

I then review these plays and spend 90% of my time researching them to determine which ones have the best opportunity to hit.

The trends I come up with and post as part of the play, those are all part of my research but have nothing to do with my system.

My system starts operating in Week 4. Prior to that, all of my plays were made using my own handicapping methods.

From Week 4 thru the present, all plays were made by:

#1 Running my computer system
#2 Creating a "short list" of those system plays with the most value
#3 Researching each play on the board to determine which games I wanted to rule off the short list, which ones I wanted to keep on the short list, and which games were not targeted by my computer system but I wanted to add to the short list.
#4 Analyzing the few games left on my short list and releasing only those which I thought had the largest likelihood of winning.

Therefore, the plays I have released from week 4 on may have come from my system, or may have been added. And obviously, there were many system plays which I did not release.

Again, the "goal" this season, as stated before, was to release only a few games a week that I thought had the highest probability to hit. It was more of a "request" to me and I took it on as a personal challenge.

It is for that reason and that reason alone that I have not posted all of my system plays like I did last season. My computer system, which has performed outstanding, is my primary resource and tool to generate my releases.

I hope that clarifies any questions regarding my computer system and my releases this year.

2008 System Update and Important Message

2008-10-20T08:50:00.016-05:00

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I know it has been frustrating the last two weeks for those following my plays. I cannot apologize enough. My entire intent is to help people WIN money, not lose it. For that reason, I am strongly, STRONGLY considering releasing my entire system plays on Tuesdays and then releasing my personal selections on the weekend, as I do now.

I will not do this because people asked me to, but yes, I have heard you loud and clear. People who followed it last year and made money, want to see the plays again. The reason I will do it is because I feel badly you have lost on my personal selections the last two weeks, and want to help you make some money the next couple of weeks (hopefully).

Now, how did the system do this past week? Well, I e-mailed Fox Sports Radio's AM show and gave them system plays on Thursday. I told them two things just prior to the plays:

So there are two major factors in the system that the user should be aware of:

#1 - Injury to a key position since the last game, particularly to a key position like QB/RB
#2 - Double Digit Favorites could be ignored as plays completely

Then I gave them the plays:

ATS
Hou (-8.5), TB (-10.5), Was (-7), Chi (-3), Dal (-7), Cin (+10), Buf (+1.5), GB (+2.5), Car (-3)

Totals
Chi/Min Over (37.5 - no play if higher), Buf/SD Over (45), SF/NYG Over (45), Sea/TB Over 38

Now for the caveats. TB is a double digit fav, and both Dal and Cin have QB changes, so that could impact those two, but at least the change is known well in advance of game time.

So, how did we do?

If you took the advice and ignored the double digit favorite (TB) and both teams who had backup QBs (Dal/Cin), you would have gone 4-2 ATS (67%).

So, you may ask yourself, why did I release Cin and Dal as my personal plays when I knew they had backup QBs playing? My system anticipated Dal winning by 9. It was not the strongest play (from a value perspective) of the system plays for the week, but it was a play that had support from trend analysis and my research, so I kept it on the card. Did I think that replacing Romo w/ Johnson would move my predicted output of a win by 9 to a loss by 20? I could not have predicted that much of a drop off. I thought Johnson would provide a less risky option and allow the team to decrease their highs/lows. I still thought a 9 point victory was achievable. I believed that Jason Garrett would be able to use his weapons and running game to build a steady lead. I did not predict that kind of a loss.

The Cincy game was close at halftime (10-7) and close after the third quarter (17-10). Cincy's 4th quarter was miserable, after pinning Pit at their own 9 and down by only 7, they allowed Pit to score a TD in just 6 plays, then produced two 3 and outs, one of which was a fumble, which gave the Steelers the ball inside the Cincy 15 and then inside the Cincy 35. Both resulted in Steelers TDs. So yes, the play looked good at the half, looked winnable even at the start of the 4th, but then imploded. I thought even w/ Fitzpatrick the play of +10 was still a decent value play, and though I was wrong, it was closer than the final score indicated.

As for the totals: I did post my top totals Over play (Min/Chi O 37.5) prior to game time (Sun 11:31 AM EDT) in a message board thead HERE.

Right now my Top Overs system is 5-2 ATS (71%) on the season. It was from that system which came the close loss (Car/TB Over) last weekend. It is the same system that went a remarkable 21-1 ATS last season.

My other Overs System is 10-6, going 2-2 this past weekend (it also had the Chi/Min Over). Which puts it at 63% on the season.

System Plays which will be Posted:

1. All ATS plays, and remember, I categorically rule out DD favs and teams starting a backup QB.

2. All Totals plays, w/ designation if it is a "Top" play or not.

Those are the guidelines for plays that will be posted.

The duty that gets placed on your shoulders now that I am doing this:

1. You will be able to spend 5 days of line shopping to get the best line you can.

2. You will have to determine which plays you will want to make. Again, the system has generated 7-9 ATS plays a week so far. I will share all plays that fall under the above parameters, but there will be many more than just a couple of plays a week.

3. You will have to factor in injuries and other research into the plays.

4. I am simply sharing my system that I created. I don't take responsibility for bad weeks or losing plays.

System Results YTD

Using the above parameters (no DD favs, no back-up QBs), here are the ATS system results so far for 2008:

Week 4:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
KC (W), Atl (L), Ten (W), Oak (L), Was (W), Chi (W), Buf (W), TB (W), Bal (W)

Totals 4-1 (80%)
Cle/Cin Under (W) - note I actually recommended this via e-mail but did not count it towards my record, Min/Ten Over (L), GB/TB Over (W), SD/Oak Over (W), Phi/Chi Over (W)

Week 5:

ATS 6-2-1 (75%)
Hou (L), Bal (Push), Mia (W), Chi (W), NYG (W), SF (L), Cin (W), Car (W), Ari (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Ten/Bal Over (L), Sea/NYG Over (W), TB/Den Over (L), Buf/Ari Over (W)

Week 6:

ATS 7-2 (78%)
Mia (W), Bal (L), GB (W), Phi (W), Atl (W), Ari (W), NYJ (W), TB (W), Den (L)

Totals 2-1 (67%)
Car/TB Over (L), Phi/SF Over (W), Dal/Ari Over (W)

Week 7:

ATS 4-2 (67%)
Hou (L), Chi (W), Was (L), Buf (W), GB (W), Car (W)

Totals 2-2 (50%)
Chi/Min Over (W), Buf/SD Over (L), SF/NYG Over (W), Sea/TB Over (L)

Summary Weeks 4-7

ATS 24-8-1 (75%)
Top Totals 5-2 (71%)
Overs System #2 Totals 10-6 (63%)

Now, a few things I want to mention:

1. I know Czaban and perhaps others do no believe that a computer system can pick games at such a high percentage. It has done so thus far and at this point, I can't worry about what people think of it. My goal for running this site is not to make everyone a believer, I can't help the fact that although my system plays were posted all of last season, and although my personal plays this season have been posted every single week this season, people do not believe that my record is achievable. My goal for this site it is to help people make money. If sharing my system will help do that, then that's what I will do.

2. I know Brandon Lang does not think I would share these plays publicly. Well, I did it last season, publicly on Tuesdays of each week for the upcoming games, and my results are HERE and anyone can view those threads to verify the accuracy HERE. I also know that Brandon Lang said I should "validate" my system, but that is exactly what I did all of last season, and the results don't lie. I validated it last Week 7 w/ FSR (4-2 ATS if you don't play DD favs or teams w/ backup QBs), and now I will validate it with you guys for a couple of weeks. I know it works, and it has worked for several years. It is not a 100% system. But it has been hitting over 60% w/ regularity. (It will be just my luck that it has its first losing week of 2008 in Week 8, but I can't control everything. I can only do what I've been doing.)

3. I will still release my personal plays, and I will do it on Saturday AM and Sunday AM, just like I am doing now.

4. This is a WARNING: some plays that I may release as personal plays will not be system plays. Sometimes I run my system and instantly see a game that I would definitely not play. Such as Baltimore in Indy Week 6. And, as you know, in Week 5 my system said Bal +3 over Ten (line available on Tuesday), but I played Ten -1 (line available Friday-Sunday) and won w/ Ten.

5. Injuries are a very difficult thing for anyone's system to handle. It involves adding a human input into how much you downgrade a team or a player. Therefore, if a team has a couple O-Line injuries, how much do you downgrade them? That is something that is difficult to measure. Therefore, be aware of injuries when making a play.

It is up to you what you want to do w/ my system plays. If I decide to follow through and post these system plays, I will not send them out via e-mail. I will simply post them on my website on Tuesday. If you want to play any of them, or wait, it is up to you. If you want to wait until Saturday to see what I personally recommend, that is fine also. Again, sometimes my personal recommendations may not come from a system play. I will still try to recommend just a few heavy hitters. It hasn't worked out the past two weekends, but I am sure we will be having better success soon.

2008 Week 7 Plays

2008-10-18T08:16:00.008-05:00

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Week 7 Plays:

Dal -7
Chi -3
Cin +10

Week 7 Writeups:

Dal -7

Teams who had fewer than 10 first downs in an upset win on the road are 2-8-1 ATS since 1990 including 1-5-1 ATS as underdogs, provided the game is not MNF.
Teams who benefitted by receiving 3+ turnovers and won as an 4.5+ point underdog the prior game despite accumulating fewer than 10 first downs are 0-9-1 ATS and 0-10 since 1990. If underdogs, they failed to cover the 6 point avg line by 8 points and lost by 2 TDs.
Ignoring the previous line, if they received 3+ Tos and had less than 10 FDs in a underdog win, they are 0-6-1 ATS and 0-7 SU if their next game is a home game, since 1990.
Since 1999, Dallas is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU after losing SU as a road favorite the week before, if the game is not on MNF. As a favorite the following week, they are 4-0 SU and ATS, scoring an average of 25 and allowing an average of 10 on a -5 point line.
Since 2005, when Dallas has equal to or more ATS Losses than SU wins on the season, they are 8-3 ATS and 9-2 SU, including a perfect 5-0 ATS and SU in 2006. This situation did not occur last season.
Since 1990, teams who won as 7.5+ dogs their prior game and are now are 7+ dogs are 18-30-1 ATS and 7-42 SU.
Since 2002, they are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS, failing to cover an average 10 point line by 9 points and losing by 19 points.
Teams who faced Ari last week are 4-0 SU and ATS in 2008.
Teams who lost to Ari last week are 6-3 ATS since 2007
St. Louis is 1-7 ATS their last 8 games as home underdogs, dating through 2008, 2007 and into 2006
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS since 2006 as home underdogs of 6+ points. On average, they allowed 38 points and scored 18, losing by 20 points and failing to cover an average 8 point line by 11 points. Losses came to Chi, GB, Pit, NYG and Buf. All teams w/ decent defenses and offenses that can run the ball and set up the pass.
Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS since 2000 after a loss which brought them to having lost 3 straight ATS. In addition, since 1995, Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the same situation if playing a non-divisional opponent prior to week 16 of the season (non-MNF). Small sample size, but it shows that Dallas rarely loses 3 straight ATS and it is even less rare for them to lose four in a row.

Don't get me wrong, I think Dallas has been highly overrated this season. I went against them w/ Philly on MNF and won. My system, which kicks into gear in Week 4, has been against Dallas the last 3 weeks and won each time. Was + points, Cin + points, Ari + points. My system had Ari actually winning by 3 points last week and had Cin losing by only 12 the week before. Both were within 3 points of the final outcome. But this week, I think the line is right and they will finally get break their 3 game ATS losing streak in a game that is much of a fade the Rams incredible upset as it is to back the Cowboys off a bad road loss in OT.

Chi -3

In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 14 points and failed to cover by an avg of 11 points. They have not won ATS or SU in their last 10 contests.
Chicago lost both games SU to Minnesoata last season.
Divisional teams who lost both games to the previous opponent the season before and are now favored in the first matchup of the season are 56-37 ATS as long as the line is 2 or more points and the game is held within the first 9 weeks of the season.
So far in 2008, this trend has gone 4-0, although the past 3 years it has gone 5-3-2, 5-3, and 5-2 ATS, so it is not a machine of a trend.
In fact, since 2001, if the team is at home and the line is 3+, the home team is 15-7 ATS and 22-2 SU.
Also, in games involving the NFC North (Bears/Packers/Vikings/Lions even prior to the NFC North) that are non MNF, this trend is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 1991, including a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since 1994.
Chicago is 3-0 ATS and SU in this trend, including their game against Detroit earlier this season.
Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 8-4 ATS and 9-3 SU at home following a SU loss. In fact, since 2005 they are 6-2 ATS, one loss being a SU win but an ATS loss to KC as 12 point favorites, winning only by 10. The other was week 3 of this season vs. TB, where TB scored a TD to send the game to OT in the closing seconds and then won SU in OT.
If playing a divisional team at home following a loss, Chicago is 5-0 SU and ATS. The majority of these games were not close at all. Chicago won three of those games by 20+ and two by 10. Included in there are 3 games against Minnesota, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
When facing the Vikings at home following a loss under Smith, the Bears are 3-0 SU and ATS, on average putting up 25 and allowing 10.
Since 2003, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS and SU after a win in which they did not cover, including 0-2 the past two seasons and 0-2 as underdogs since 2003.
Since 2000, Minnesota is 0-4 ATS and SU on the road after a win in which they did not cover. The average line was 5 points and Minnesota lost by an average of 20 points, failing to cover by 15.
Teams who faced Atlanta last week are 4-1 ATS in 2008.
Teams who faced Atlanta last week and are favored are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 2007
Teams who faced Detroit last week are 0-4 ATS in 2008.

The things that concerns me here is Chicago's injured secondary (several corners are questionable, which will be ruled out?) and

Under Lovie Smith, Chicago is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU prior to its bye week, the one victory being the 1 point come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Arizona in 2006. In fact, taking it back to division realignment in 2002, Chicago is 0-6 ATS the week prior to its bye, and 1-5 SU.

Can a team be consistently bad prior to a bye? Since 2002, no team is worse than Chicago's 0-6, which is obvious, but the next closest teams are Bal, Det and Phi, who all sit at 2-5 ATS, but both Bal and Phi were 1-5 ATS prior to this season and both won prior to their bye this season. On any given week any team can cover, but it is alarming that Chi has not done it prior to their bye since 2002. Still, the system likes Chi, my research (aside from this one trend) points to Chi, and I think Chi can get the cover here.

Cin +10

There have only been 18 occasions since division restructuring in 2002 when a divisional game featured a road favorite of 8+ points (ignoring week 17). The only teams to cover the spread were the high-powered Colts (twice over the Texans), the high-powered Patriots of last season (twice) and a random late season game between the 9-4 Panthers and the 3-10 Saints in 2005, which featured Todd Bouman throwing 4 Ints and Aaron Stecker rushing for 59 yards. Aside from those three teams pulling off this feat, the other 9 teams who tried have failed 13 times. Even the high powered Indy offense failed 3 times, Den failed twice and GB failed twice.
The Steelers are 0-3 ATS as 8+ point road favorites vs. anyone in their division, dating back to the AFC Central days of 1993. The fact that they have only been favored by this many points 3 times is something to think about.
The Steelers are 0-2 ATS as 8+ point favorites in Cincinnati.
The Steelers are 0-6-0 ATS since 1990 as road favorites of 8 or more points, remarkably going 2-4 SU and losing the last two times, in 2007 to the NYJ and in 2006 to Oakland.
Since 2002, the Steelers are 2-4 ATS following a bye. The last year they covered the spread was the year they won the Super Bowl. The last two seasons they have lost both ATS and SU, losing by 3 as a 3.5 point favorite at Denver, and in 2006 losing by 10 as a 3.5 point underdog in San Diego.

Ignoring their MNF game against the Pats last season, the Bengals are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs on a line of 8 or more, covering an average 10 point line by 5 points and thus losing by 5.
They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games, however these were back in 2000 and 2001.
Since 2003, the Bengals are 15-6-3 ATS the week after a SU and ATS loss.
In their last 11 games they are 9-1-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.
As underdogs of more than 1 point, they are 7-0 ATS L7 and 7-1 ATS since 2006.
As underdogs of more than 4, they are 4-0 ATS since 2003
As underdogs of 8+ points, they are 8-0-1 ATS since 2000

This is certainly not a safe and comfy feeling play. What concerns me? Well, for starters:

Since 1999, the Steelers are 9-1 ATS and 9-1 SU in Cincinnati.
Another trend, which I won't mention specifically, went 8-1 ATS last season and is 2-0 so far this season.
Fortunately w/ that trend, the only team favored by over 4 points was NE vs Buf last season. All other teams who covered under that trend were favorites of 4 or less.
Lastly, Ryan Fitzpatrick, the worst team in the league (record wise) and the fact that they have historically trash talked this Pittsburgh team and Pittsburgh has historically beaten them down w/ regularity.

Why do I like this play? Aside from the fact my system thinks Pittsburgh wins by 6 and I can get 10 on it, and aside from the fact that my trends and research show great value in taking a double digit divisional dog, I personally believe this Steelers team to be overrated. I think there are several achillies heels on this team that are ready to be exposed. Do the Bengals have the capability of exposing them? Not to the extent to make me feel good about the play. Do I have much faith in Marvin Lewis? Definitely not. But can Cincy get the cover? I will, for three hours on Sunday, put my faith in them and hope for the best.

MNF and Season Forward Comment

2008-10-14T05:49:00.007-05:00

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Not only was the game a bad play, but it was also a play that came not from my system, but from my desire to release a play on Monday for the various people who e-mailed me and questioned why I would not release a MNF play.

I take full responsibility for the bad play and I should have stopped when I typed in my writeup:

"This is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover."

Those three sentences should have scared me away from releasing this play. My system found no value in a play. My reasons for releasing the play stemmed from a few e-mails I received from a variety of people who essentially really wanted my input on the game, really wanted to receive all of my system plays, and really wanted me to "help them out" and play more games, particularly, the game last night. I did a disservice by releasing a play that I had only researched for approximately 2.5 hours on Monday afternoon.

I was talking to a friend in London around 2pm EST about the fact I was not releasing a play for MNF. I told him my system found no value in the game, and I was not going to force anything. I am sure he is quite shocked to find that I did in fact release a play, and what a poor play that it was.

I realize that many people signed up for plays this past weekend, based on hearing about my show on Fox Sports Radio w/ Steve Czaban as well as (from what some people told me but I have not yet confirmed) on the Dan Patrick radio show. And most likely several of the individuals who signed up were expecting to see a MNF release and were wondering where it was and were asking for my help.

I sincerely appreciate all of the exposure and interest but I'm not doing my job if I put out plays that lose you money. My entire desire for sharing my plays is to let you guys share in the profits. For that reason, I must stick to the very few plays a week that I release that have value.

So just so everyone is clear:

There may be some weeks that I truly only do have only 1 play that has substantial value. If that is the case, please do not demand for me to release multiple plays. (Someone was upset that I "might only release the totals play" which I mentioned in my Saturday e-mail.) Yes, there are times only one play will be released, and I am sorry if you would like to see 5 plays, but I will only release those that have high enough value.
Many cases I will not release a MNF game. From now on, by 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific, I will post on my site if I am going to have a play for MNF or not. You won't have to wonder.
When I release multiple plays, unless I specifically mention that one play is strong and another is not, I like all plays the same value.

I should have stated this from the very beginning, and I am sorry if you took my play last night and lost your hard earned money. I am quite disappointed in my 1-2 record this week, particularly because I do know that many new people signed up and were, I am sure, disappointed w/ the results. But I assure you, there is no one more disappointed than I am. I also assure you that I will not release any more plays like the play I released last night: a play I felt pressured to make and one which my research was only 2.5 hours and had no value based upon my system.

I am not a standard service you may be used to, who has an opinion and play on every single day of the season, and on 5 games on Sunday. I look for targeted games, I pick my spots, and I pass on 95% of the games. I try to pick those 5% that I feel have an extreme edge and let Vegas make money on the rest.

So you know, the methodology I take when releasing plays is:

Run my system and view the output
Create a shortlist of those games
Research those games which are system plays, narrow the shortlist down to the best bets
Double check, and then research games not selected to see if there is any significant edge in any game the system did not catch or recommend
This process typically starts first thing Tuesday AM and runs all the way through until Sunday AM. Not 12 hrs per day, but several hours, each and every day. I take my system and my releases very seriously, which is part of the reason I am so disappointed in myself for releasing the non-system play on MNF.

The majority of plays I have released from week 4 onward have been system plays. As you know, my system kicks in week 4. Prior to this game, those plays were 6-2. With this non-system play, that drops the record to 6-3 the L3 weeks, 4-2 the L2.

The only positive is that I am still hitting 75% even after absorbing a terrible weekend. The other positive is that we have a clear plan moving forward. Despite offers for otherwise, I am sticking to my original plan to only release certain plays which have the most value for the week. I cannot predict how many that will be on a weekly basis. The average has been 3 thus far.

Prior to this week, I was 17-4 (81%). I cannot promise future results, but what I can promise is Week 7 and onward will have the same diligence and attention to detail that all prior plays have had, save the mistake last night.

Week 6 MNF

2008-10-13T17:23:00.007-05:00

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A few numbers.

1

1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record

105

105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.

Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.
If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.
If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points
In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12
Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.
In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.
Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.
Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog
Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.
1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.

This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:

started Ryan Fitzpatrick,
turned the ball over 5 times,
and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter

It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.

I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.

Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.

The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-spgiants105877135oct10,0,4854389.story

Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.

Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.

Week 6 Reflection

2008-10-13T06:41:00.006-05:00

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The last time Jake Delhomme and the Panthers did not score a TD in a game was over two full seasons ago, week 1 of 2006.

The last time Jake Delhomme threw 3 interceptions in a regular season game was a full three years ago, week 6 of 2005.

Since Jake Delhomme came to the Panthers in 2003 and started for the team, the only game where he threw 3 ints and Carolina scored not a single TD was yesterday.

Suffice it to say, I am still disgusted over their inability to put up a TD, thus depriving us of a 2-0 day. Some call it a "bad beat", I just call it a random and unlikely event. For all of it to happen after a first quarter which played out so perfectly:

Two first quarter TDs and Carolina w/ the ball on 1st and 10 at the TB 14 yard line to start the 2nd quarter.

was just a tragic turn of events for us. My system showed a TB win and cover, w/ them scoring 23 to 24 points. They put up 27. However, it showed Carolina scoring approx. 20 in the loss. We only needed them to put up 1 TD and they could not get there.

The Over play came from my Overs system which was 4-1-1 (80%) since the I started running it this season in Week 4, and was 21-1 last season (95%) and 17-5 (77%) in 2006.

I am disappointed I cannot say it is now 5-1-1 (83%) on the season and we were 2-0 on the week. But such is life and we must move on.

I can tell you that the occurrence of such an unlikely event should be unlikely and hopefully will not make another appearance in the remainder of the games we play this season. I do my best to narrow down games to those which are the most likely to hit. Sometimes, though, events so unlikely to occur, do occur which make those plays which are highly likely to hit, miss, and we are left out. Again, I will continue to work just as hard to keep our high percentage going throughout the rest of the season and hopefully we will not be on the receiving end of a game like that again.

2008-10-09T09:22:00.013-05:00

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Week 6 Plays:

TB/Car O 36.5
Phi -4.5

Week 6 Writeups:

TB/Car O 36.5

Since Gruden took over TB and Fox took over Car (both in 2002), the Over between the two teams has gone a mere 5-7 on an average line of 36.

However, games in Tampa have gone 4-2 to the over, including 4 straight overs. (Since 2004)
Not only has this game gone over in TB the last 4 straight years, it has destroyed the over. On an average line of 36.5, the final score has been 52. Carolina has eclipsed 30 points in 3 of the 4, while TB has eclipsed 20 in 3 of the 4. On average, 12 first quarter points have been scored and 26 first half points have been scored. Needing only 11 more to eclipse the average total in the 2nd half. On average, by the end of the 3rd quarter, 40 points have been scored, well exceeding the posted total.
Tampa Bay's Overs have gone 8-1 in the last 3 seasons in home divisional games. On an average total of 37.5, the average final scores have totaled 44 points.
In Tampa Bay's last 9 home divisional games, the fewest points TB have scored was 23, save the 2 games started by Gradkowski as QB (6 and 14). On average, they scored 28 points.
In Tampa Bay's last 10 home divisional games, on average they allowed 24 ppg, ignoring the last 2 w/ Atlanta (where Atlanta scored only 3 and 9 points).
Thus, an average final score of 28+24 = 52 points
In Carolina's last 12 road divisional games, on average they scored 32 points, ignoring two road starts by Weinke and Carr (10 and 16 respectively).
Ignoring those same two contests, Carolina allowed an average of 19 points.
Thus, an average final score of 32+19 = 51 points
Under Fox, Carolina is 9-3 for Overs in road divisional games. On an average line of 39.5, the net finals have been 47 points.
In any of these 12 games where the total was set at 40 or fewer points, the over has hit 6-0, eclipsing the total by an average of 15 points. Granted, 4 of the 6 featured TB, which we mentioned earlier, but the other two, NO and ATL, both went over the posted total by 15 and 10.5 points respectively.

Another angle is previously playing in a low scoring game in Denver the week before:

Teams who played their last game in Denver w/ a total of 38 or above and the game went under are 14-4-1 to the Over back at home since 2001, on average exceeding a 41 point total by 7 points.
The 4 losses were the result of vastly 1 sided games: 26-7, 29-3, 19-3 and 28-3.
If the total in the prior game in Denver was over 41 points, their next game went over 9-1-1 since 2001.
Since 2003, the over is 10-1 in those games, exceeding a 41 point total by an avg of 12 points.
Since 1990, if a team played in Denver on a total over 41 points and both team combined for only 34 or fewer points, the over in that team's next game at home is 8-0 ATS.

This line is dead on to what you would expect from these two teams. Especially when you see that TB was just off of a 13-16 loss in Denver, and Carolina is 1-3-1 for Overs so far this season. It makes anyone who is looking at "what have you done for me lately" to hesitate on the Over. Not to mention the average posted totals between these teams in their last 10 meetings is dead on with 36.5. But let's investigate more:

TB's total has gone over 8-1 in 9 home divisional games the last 3 seasons, but they did go Under in their one game so far this season, week 2 vs. Atl. So looking at that game:

ATL started a rookie QB in his first road game ever, against the infamous Tampa 2.
Ryan's first 6 drives resulted in two turnovers and 4 punts, almost all drives 3 and outs and advancing no closer than the TB 36.
ATL made many halftime adjustments, and conducted two sustained drives in the 2nd half, taking the ball to the TB 9 and TB 6 yard lines before settling for 2 FGs.
In total, ATL had 3 trips inside the TB 15 yard line and came away with only 3 FGs, not surprising for a rookie in his first road game.
Meanwhile, TB was able to put up 24 points themselves, though 10 were off of turnovers.

In addition, as stated above, the Overs in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay have all hit. But let's investigate the QBs of those two teams during that time:

Wk 17, 2007: Total 36, M. Moore (Car) vs L. McCown (TB) - both throw 2 TDs, final score totaled 54 points
Wk 3, 2006: Total 34.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 50 points
Wk 9, 2005: Total 36.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 48 points
Wk 16, 2004: Total 39, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. B. Griese (TB) - 7 combined passing TDs, final score totaled 57 points

The games in Carolina featured even spottier QBs: two years ago Tampa started Gradkowski, and last year Carolina started Carr.

The point of this analysis is that these games in Tampa went well over the posted total, and none of the four featured Delhomme vs. Garcia. The two best QBs on either team (need to see the health of Garcia to validate).

I believe that if weather does not impact this game too much, we will see an over. Please use your own best judgement and money management given all of the information I have shared with you and make and informed and well thought out play on the game.

A quick note about the final score landing on 36, 37 or 38:

You definitely want to get 36.5 on this game. As I've said in past e-mails regarding the number 37:

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time
Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time
Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time
Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

Therefore, having Over 36.5 would allow you to win on 37, a number that occurs twice as often as 36, 38 or 39.

In addition, in games lined 36, 36.5 or 37:

37 occurs 4.4% of the time, which is 2.4 times as often as 36 occurs (1.8%). The whole key is to win and not to push, so try to get that 36.5.

Phi -4.5

Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites on the West Coast
Under Andy Reid, Philly is 6-1 ATS vs. a non-divisional opponent after a loss to a divisional opponent, including 5-1 ATS on the road
Under Andy Reid, Philly is 5-1 ATS following a loss as a home favorite in their last game, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2000, the Eagles are 18-5 ATS following a loss
If favored, they are 10-2 ATS
I won't mention the specific system, but the Eagles qualify for a 16-4-1 subset of a system since 1990, including 9-0 ATS since 2000, covering an average -4 line by 8 points and winning by an avg of 11 points.
As a larger subset, they are 33-10-2 ATS since 1990 and in non-divisional games since 2000, they are 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS, covering a -6 point line by an average of 8 points.

Short and simple as time is short. This is a play that I have had on my radar, and though not the strongest of my plays, it was one that I could not find good reasons to remove. I will take Philly and hope for a 5 point cover.

My System and System Results from Prior Seasons

2008-10-08T22:00:00.004-05:00

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I want to better describe my system and my strategy this season:

First, the goal of my venture into developing a computer system was simply to develop another "tool" I could use to cap games. I developed it a few years back, and my results since then not only have been tremendous in my opinion, but have been remarkably consistent. I won't begin to say that "I cracked the code" or developed some Holy Grail for handicapping. But the results are 100% accurate and unaltered. For proof of last season's results, all you need to do is begin looking at the weekly threads I posted at a certain website which I mention HERE. As for this season's records, most of you can verify them yourselves as you've received the e-mails, but I have also posted all plays prior to kickoff on my site as well as on three different message boards. My system typically kicks in Week 4 and I chart it through the rest of the season. So all the records you see at the bottom of this thread that date back to 2006, those are from Week 4 through the playoffs.

What you need to realize, from looking at my system's records, is that a lot of plays are generated each season. I have several ATS systems and several Totals Systems, and then some permutations of these systems. Last season, I had a total of 578 plays from my system. In many cases they overlapped (in other words, the same pick was derived from multiple systems/permutations), but even disregarding that, you're looking at roughly 15+ plays a week. For example, while 30 plays would be generated by all systems for a certain week, perhaps only 15 would be unique side/total selections.

And what I realized last season, as I tried to get people to follow along on various message boards, was that there were simply too many plays to choose from. Guys certainly loved my top Overs system, which went 21-1 (95%). They followed that to a "T" and won on it. But the other systems simply produced too many plays on a weekly basis, and truthfully, I don't know how many guys played all of my plays. So even while they were hitting well, fewer people were making money off of them.

This offseason, I was approached by several people who had a specific desire:

Impressed by my system but unwilling to play 10+ games a week and hunt for plays on a message board, they wondered if I could e-mail out just a few plays a week that would hit at a high percentage.

I took their request seriously and as a personal challenge, and I have been working to accomplish this goal. Which brings me to how I am using my system this season:

I am using it as a "guide" to help find a "short list" of sides/total plays that contain a reasonable amount of value. Then, from there, I begin my rigorous weekly research. I research everything you can think of from various sources: Injuries, trends, weather, morale, motivation, public perception, and other factors that I think get overlooked by many when selecting their games for the week. Sometimes in my research I come up with plays that were not targeted by my system. In fact, this season so far I've released one game based on my research and my "gut instinct" that went against my system: Tennessee -1 over Baltimore in Week 5. My system showed Baltimore would win that game, but I believed based on my research and gut instinct that Tennessee would win. Indeed, it was a close game w/ Baltimore leading for a large part, but ultimately, Tennessee did win by 3 points. So while I want you to note my system's results at the bottom of this post, I want you to realize, this season I am doing a LOT MORE leg work on my own to narrow down plays and release them. I wish it was as easy as hitting "run" on my system. But there is not nearly as much fun in that.

Last season, in addition to my system plays, I also posted (on the same message board as I linked to above) personal selections, which were not derived from my system. These were my selections based on my research and capping. Last season, those plays went 58-36-3 (62%) and are fully verified at the other message board. As you can see, even my personal selections hit very well but I made about 100 plays, or about 5 a week including the playoffs. Yes, 62% is extremely good, but I figure that had I released only 3 or 4 plays a week instead of 5, I would have hit at an even higher percentage.

In addition, remember that my system does not typically kick in until Week 4 for projecting results. Last season, thru Week 3, my personal selections, not using my system at all, were 11-1 (92%). This season, thru Week 3 (and without my system), the plays I released went 12-3 (80%).

Also, as you will see at the bottom, in the 2005-2006 season, I participated in an online competition to pick sides and totals for the playoffs. Prior to the Super Bowl, I stood in First Place out of roughly 6,000 participants, with a record of 15-1 (94%). All of these selections were made on my own, without the use of my system. I knew the side I was going to play in the Super Bowl (Pittsburgh Steelers) and I knew what total I wanted to play (Under), but I made the side play and held off on the total play until gameday. This was because, by Sunday, I was able to see the selections of the 2nd and 3rd place players online (all plays are publicly viewable after they are selected). If I was wrong on both the side and total (Pittsburgh and the Under), I could have finished in 2nd place. However, if I selected the Pittsburgh and the Over, I would have locked up First place before the game even started. I decided it was the right move to not risk anything, so I took the Over, knowing I won First Place right there. The game ended Pittsburgh and the Under, putting me 1-1 for the day, 16-2 (89%) for the tournament and in First Place. No one has finished any of Wagerline's competitions w/ a winning percentage equal to or greater than mine (to date, since 1999, in any sport).

I am pointing all of this out to you so that you can realize one thing: While my system has been great for me, my own handicapping methods and instinct for plays (ignoring my system) has been great for the past several seasons which my plays are 100% documented online and not affiliated w/ my website at all.

I am a firm believer that everyone has their special talents and gifts, and for whatever reason, lately it has become clear to me that one of mine has been picking NFL games. I am not saying I will win 80% of my plays. That is frankly close to impossible if you are selecting 3-4 plays a week for an entire season. As you know, w/ standard juice, you need to hit approximately 52.4% to come out on top. I am defintely lucky to have my system, and combining it w/ my own insight and research certainly has become a winning combination. To answer several questions as to whether I do any other sports aside from the NFL: As I say on my homepage, I focus entirely on the NFL. I have not tried to spend time adapting my system to any other sport, nor have I handicapped any other sport. Not even NCAA football. Just NFL, it has my full focus, and I know that fact surely has played a role in my success.

Again, this season I have a vastly different and more complex challenge than in years past. My system plays are not being posted, they are being used only by myself as one of several tools I have to release typically between 3-4 plays a week that (hopefully) will hit at a high percentage. None of my plays are fancy team totals or prop bets or plays where I am buying multiple points and paying -130+ juice. (Once in a while I may advise buying a 1/2 point, but typically I leave that up to you.) I never have made these type of plays. These plays, while not being able to be wagered by many, also many times have stiff juice and so it is easier to have a good record if you are not playing standard spreads/totals. My system is based on WA lines and my plays that I have posted online since day one have all been standard side and total plays. With the exception of buying a 1/2 point on certain occasions, my recommendations are made w/ those same WA lines and the standard juice on those lines. My record will stand on its own at the end of the season, no fancy "stars" or "units" won, just my record of wins and losses.

My one note towards money management is this: I am not going to tell you how much to wager nor will I claim that I can keep up at my current pace. I would be very surprised if I finished the season at 81%. I am sharing all of my plays and information for you so you can try to hit at a better percentage than you usually do. I strongly recommend defining your bankroll, using a certain percentage of it on a weekly basis, and learning how to best buy or not buy points (when and where the value is). This is not a get rich quick scheme, it's full season of action. My goal has always been to be up at the end of each day, at the end of each week, and at the end of each season. So far if you have been following along, you are at 17-4 (81%). You can absorb a rough week or two because you are up ahead. I hope that does not happen, but let's face it, it is football and anything can happen. But I warn you because my goal is not for you to love my plays and analysis, though I do my best, it's to help you win money. I can only control the plays I release, I can't control anything else. Hopefully with my plays and your sharp money management, you will be very happy at the end of the season, which is truly my Ultimate Goal.

2007-2008 Results

My overs system was absolutely unbelievable. Hit 21-1 including playoffs. Highly unlikely it will do that well again, but myself and others made some solid money off of it.

Here are all my system plays:

Overs Sys #1: 21-1 (95%)
Overs Sys #2: 26-7 (79%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 41-24 (63%)
"Top 5" Per Week: 42-27 (61%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 33-21 (61%)
ATS "Both Sys lean to the same team": 42-30 (60%)
O/U "Both Sys lean to the same side": 61-41 (60%)
Unders Sys #1: 33-24 (58%)
Unders Sys #2: 30-22 (58%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 9-8 (53%)
Wrong Team Favored: 16-17-2 (48%)

I also posted personal plays, which were in addition to system plays, and not derived out of any system, just my own capping. These plays went 58-36-3 (62%).

You will also notice I have more plays in 2007 than I did in 2006, which is because I added several new permutations and types of plays, such as a new totals system, a "top 5", and a "systems lean to the same side" play.

2006-2007 Results

Looking back at 2006, here are how my systems did that season:

ATS Top Plays Sys #2: 14-3 (82%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #3: 20-6 (77%)
Top Overs: 17-5 (77%)
Top Unders: 25-13 (66%)
ATS Top Plays Sys #1: 26-14 (65%)
All Unders leans: 83-48 (63%)
All Overs leans: 40-26 (61%)

2005-2006

Looking back at 2005, I did not track my W-L record and my system was in the "testing" phase. However, the one contest I did participate in was the Wagerline Playoff Competition. Out of 5,900 contestants, I finished in 1st Place. Playing sides and totals for most games, I finished 16-2 (89%) and +6630 Units. Looking at all wagerline contest results in their Hall Of Fame from 1999 thru present, no one has won one of their contests (in any sport) with a higher win % than 89%. So I was very proud, as I still am, to hold that distinction.

2008 Week 5 Plays

2008-10-04T07:39:00.007-05:00

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Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)
Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
Chicago -3

Miami +7

Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record)
In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points.
Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs.
Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points.
A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year.
Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.

Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.

If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.

Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)

First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose.

The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers
If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points.
The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15.
The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points.

There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points.
If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6.
Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites
Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games.
As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU.
Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the Colts

A lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective:

Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU
Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU.
If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS

It is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs:

Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9

I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that:

Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1
Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens.
Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.

As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.

Chi -3

Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.

The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.

What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:

Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.

Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.

The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.

Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.

The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.

The only trend that really does scare me is:

Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.

It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.

System Results to date and Totals Study

2008-09-30T08:01:00.006-05:00

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Last night was a perfect example of what I was saying in the lack of value. I'm sure Ravens backers were fired up after the first half, but they found themselves lucky to only be down by 7 with 9:20 left in the game. Steelers lost multiple key players in that game and still beat the Ravens by 3. As a bettor, that was not the type of game you want your money on either side. It ended way too close to the line for comfort for either side. Which is why I passed. They don't always turn out like that, but in this case, it did and was good to pass on the game.

I wanted to give you an update on my system. I told you earlier, the system gets cranking the further along in the season we get. But, I've been pleased w/ the results thus far, moreso for the ATS systems than the totals, which I'll explain later.

As you know, this season is different in that I am not just sending out my system plays, I am weeding them down and also adding in other plays that my own research and logic show are prudent, and that's what you are getting each week. And that is my 14-4 (78%) ATS record. But my system has been doing well itself, and here are those records:

ATS Systems

I have two systems - a dog friendly system and a favorite friendly system.

When both systems lean to the same side, the results have been solid. 19-12 ATS (61%) and if leaning towards the road team, 8-4 ATS (67%).
Though not changing anything w/ the system from last year, I am evaluating the output more and categorizing it better. For instance, I'm looking at the top two home value plays for each system, each week. Sometimes these plays are the same for both my ATS systems, but from weeks two-four, the system went 5-2 ATS (71%). Last week combining the two, it had KC, Ten and Oak (2-1, where Oak really got burned in that cover).
Top dogs from my favorite friendly system has gone 3-1 ATS (75%).
Top 3 per week from both my dog and favorite systems have gone a combined 6-3 ATS the past two weeks (67%).
Top five per week where both systems are in agreement are 5-2 ATS since week two (71%).
Wrong team favored where both systems are in agreement is 4-2 ATS since week two (67%).

O/U Systems

My top overs system has gone 7-3 (70%) the past two weeks.
My secondary overs system has gone 7-5 (58%) the past two weeks.
When both overs systems lean to the same side, the results have been 9-5-2 (64%).
The unders systems have not fared as well, and the main reason is the number of overs so far this season, which I'll explain below.

To see how my system has fared in the past 2 years, go HERE.

Here is an article I wrote based upon my analysis of the Overs/Unders thus far in 2008:

Uncanny amount of overs so far, and Analysis

So far this year, overs have gone 34-24-2 (59%). The last 5 years, from 2003-2007, there were an average through four weeks of 26-33-1 (44%). That is a full 15% increase in the amount of overs from average results. The last season that was close to this average was 2002, when overs went 32-28 (53%) through four weeks. Still less definitely less than the 59% we've seen this year. In fact, you'd have to go back to 97 to find a higher % of overs (61%).

There are a number of things that you then have to consider.

#1 - Did rule changes affect the overs?
#2 - If no, what could we expect from the rest of the season?

I'll first share a chart with you I put together, then walk you through my conclusions:

#1 - As you can see, seasons which had a large % of overs in the first 4 weeks (above 50%) were the only season with a decrease in the % of overs (2nd column from the right) the rest of the season.

#2 - Overall, overs hit only around 49% for the season, which is why playing overs in general (and not targeting specific games) is square and you would not see that 52.4% needed to gain a profit @ -110 juice.

#3 - After starting out very favorable to overs, the season ending % in those seasons (97, 00, 02) finished very close to the average 49%.

#4 - If we project that we will finish this season close to 49%, Overs will only be hitting at 46% the rest of the season, or (projecting a standard amount of pushes) -15 games under .500 the rest of the season.

#5 - If we projected the start to the season (34-24-2) at 59% over the last 13 weeks, the last 13 weeks would see 117-80-7, or +37 games over .500. Likewise, if we look at last season's results over the last 13 weeks, the season finished out +19 games over .500.

#6 - Therefore, whether comparing it to last season or the first 4 weeks of this season, the number of games that are going to swing (from those that hit at over to those that will now have to hit at under) will be 34 (vs. last season) and 52 (vs. this season's % thus far).

#7 - Mentally, you have to be aware of this when capping totals the rest of the season. Oddsmakers will be on top of their lines, knowing they have to adjust things to allow unders to hit at a better rate overall, netting their sportsbooks more revenue. I would be very suprised if we finished this season higher than 51%. Therefore, many more games are going to be going under than you may expect based on last year or results season to date. So while looking at the percentages may not seem that much, remember that the "swing" in your mind from what you've seen last year and so far this year, to what will actually happen, could be about 34 games in total. Which is over 2.6 per weekend, and is of course significant when capping totals.

So overall, I wanted to share this study with you and also share my system's results. I think the season has gone very well thus far, 14-4 (78%) is not too shabby through 4 weeks. But I think I can improve upon that, and while every week may not be up to my high standards, I think overall we will be in very good shape at the end of the season.

Week 4 MNF

2008-09-29T18:28:00.000-05:00

Typically when everyone makes a huge deal about a game last week, it's good fade material. I realize Pittsburgh looked terrible offensively against Philly and struggled in the wind/rain in Cleveland the week before. And how great Baltimore looked off a bye week at home against a terrible offense/defense in Cleveland, and a game in which they were losing at the half. But I love when everyone says that it's time to take a Rookie QB on the road for the 1st game of the year in Pittsburgh. Just not a good recipe for winning plays.

However, my system is giving me no confidence in much value in this play. It's actually leaning towards Baltimore, but by the slightest of margins. Certainly not enough for me to consider taking Baltimore in this spot - just not enough value there.

My system has been hitting pretty well overall this year, better ATS than in totals but there are several reasons for that. Tomorrow I intend to update my site w/ my system records to date and give a breakdown of what they are looking like. Again, this season unlike in the past, I am using the system to assist me make my plays, as one consideration, as opposed to playing every single system play.

So, for the 2nd week in a row, I am laying off in tonight's game. If pressed I could make a lean, and that lean would probably go towards my desire to fade the talking heads who only seem concerned w/ the offensive problems of the Steelers and the defensive dominance that Baltimore has put forward over two of the most dominant forces in the NFL this year, Cincy and Cleveland (yes, that was sarcastic). But I'm not going to even go that far and I'll just say: Officially, no play. I look for value in my selections, as my goal is to consistently produce winners. And the way to do that is to limit my plays to only those w/ the most value.

I'll pack up another winning week, and a 14-4 record in hopes to produce even better results next weekend. Good luck in your selections tonight!

2008 Week 4 Plays

2008-09-26T19:33:00.004-05:00

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Hou +7.5
Ten -3
SF +5

Hou +7

Houston is 9-3 ATS vs Jacksonville, including 6-0 ATS following a loss
Houston is 10-4-1 ATS after losing while accumulating 120+ rushing yards, including 6-2 ATS since 2003 if away
The Jaguars are 5-8 ATS after facing the Colts, including 1-6 ATS as favorites.
I also have two solid rushing systems, which are 30-15-1 ATS and 17-8-0 ATS since 2002 and 6-3-0 ATS and 4-1-1 ATS since 2007, and both are suggesting Houston +7

I like Hou in this situation even though this is a team who is going to be playing through a lot of adversity. They really "showed up" last week in Tennessee and gave the Titans a battle. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, which happens more than you think in the NFL w/ bye weeks, but still is not extremely common. I just like this spot for them and I will look for them to get the win. I've seen several outlets who still have +7.5, so grab that if you can but don't spend too much on the hook if you would be buying to it. The Texans are actually 8-1 ATS when facing the Jaguars and the Jags have a better record, and they are 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville if the Jags have a better record. In those 4 games, Houston was underdogs of 7, 10, 10.5 and 13. Houston won all 3 games where the spread was fewer than 13 points. Most recently a low scoring, 3 point win in 2006. I don't know that this game will be as similar, as Houston has a lot going against their favor, having already lost their bye week and not playing at home in now the 4th week of the season. But I see them rallying here and getting the cover.

Ten -3

Teams off a home win in which they covered and are home favorites of a FG or less to a team who is also off of a win in which they covered are 11-3-1 ATS since 2002 and 23-8-1 since 1996
Tennessee is 11-1 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season at home as a favorite of less than 3.5 points, winning by an avg of 8 points and covering by an avg of 6 points. They are 4-0 ATS against the NFC in this situation.
In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 13 points and failed to cover by an avg of 10 points. They have not won ATS in their last 10 contests.

I know what you may say - "he's playing Tennessee again?" and the answer is yes. I can't say I'm head over heels for this play, but I won't let the fact that Ten has covered 3 straight and won 3 straight dissuade me from making this play. As you know, I look at each game and of course analyze public perception as one factor, so of course I do care about more than looking only at week 4. I care about weeks 1-3 for both of these teams. But doing my research, I found that since 1990, there have been 34 NFL teams who started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. In week 4, there were 9 of those teams who fit a similar situation as Ten here. Favorites of 3.5 or fewer points. Those 9 teams went 7-2 ATS in week 4, covering by an average of 6 points. If these teams were playing at home, they went 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 12 points. And actually, the last time this happened was last season, when 3-0 GB ventured into the Metrodome and defeated the Vikings, covering in the win by 6 points. Again, this was surely not a REASON to take Ten here, but it was a reason NOT TO BE SCARED to play them again. Against Min, they are not my favorite play on my card, but I do like them to get the job done at home.

SF +5

The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in the first 10 weeks of the season after winning as a home favorite and heading onto the road
The Saints under Sean Payton are 0-3 ATS after a road loss
The Saints under Sean Payton are 3-8 ATS as home favorites, and just 1-5 ATS if favored by more than 4 points (failing to cover by an avg of 7 points and actually losing SU 3 of these 6 games)
SF also falls into one of my rushing systems that has seen some success over the past several seasons.

I don't have much to say in this matchup, and you don't want to hear matchup analysis from me. The Saints are off a 2 game road trip and are finally home for 3 straight games. Teams who were on the road and then come home for the first of 3 home games (before week 10, so they are still in the early stage of the year), and are favored by more than a FG but less than a TD are actually 6-13 ATS.

2008 Week 4

2008-09-23T08:48:00.004-05:00

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I am glad we stayed away on MNF: numbers/trends pointed to NYJ, my gambling instincts and gut pointed to SD. I take all of that into account when making plays, and it's for that reason I decided to look ahead rather than force a play.

It's at times like this, especially on MNF, where a lot of guys feel forced to make a play, and unfortunately forcing a play can get ugly, especially after a rough weekend.

I always look at it from the perspective that each and every game is 1 our of 256 regular season games. If you can capitalize on a game, great. If not, move on and cap the next one. There are times when MNF games are great plays due to the high number of wagers and the way Vegas sets their lines in anticipation of the bets placed. So sometimes it is worth it to play on MNF even if the value is close to being there (but not quite 100%), but the public's reaction to the line and the line movement is assisting in your play. You have to pick your spots.

On to week 4 and looking to produce solid results.

2008 Week 3 Monday Night Football

2008-09-22T15:59:00.006-05:00

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Tough loss yesterday on the Bears. But I moved past it and was studying the matchup tonight.

One of my ATS systems has gone 2-0 so far this week on its big plays, Ten and Bal being those 2 winners. Tonight it has SD winning by a FG.

The other ATS system has SD winning by an even 9.

Doing my research in other phases of this matchup, I have found the following:

Jets are 10-5-1 ATS traveling to the West Coast, including 4-1-1 since 2002 and 3-0 @ SD
Jets are 4-0 ATS as a road dog after facing NE and losing the previous week since 2003, including 3-0 ATS under Mangini
The Chargers are 3-11 ATS at home vs teams from the Eastern divisions since 1995, including 0-4 ATS as a TD+ favorite.
In those TD+ favored games, the score has been decided by just three points in 3 of the 4, and by two points in the other game.

While this leads to a strong lean towards NYJ, I am not fully confident in this play. Taking a lot into account, including the quality of opposition and SD's two, last second losses, it makes it very hard to go against this team right now.

Another key to a game like this will be special teams. NYJ had cut their punter after the NE game due to his terrible punting (27 yd net avg on 4 punts) but had to resign him late last week after his replacement hurt himself. Unless this punter (and the coverage teams) can improve dramatically on their season avg (34 net, 29th in the league), the Jets D could be facing some short fields quite frequently. To note, SD is #4 in the league in net yds/punt (45 yds).

I try to share with you my insight and analysis, but I typically will stay away from the traditional rhetoric you will see elsewhere about "SD coming out fired up", as that's not actual insight you need to hear from me. You already know both teams will be fired up and I'm not wasting your time with that.

In summary, it remains to be seen if NYJ can cover w/ a FG loss, as some of my numbers indicate, but my official advice here is a "PASS".

Yes, I'd love to get back to .500 for the week. But I'm not going to force plays nor am I in this for a week by week record. The end of the season record and the positive flow into your pockets is what I care about. And there is better value next week than I can see tonight.

From my perspective, I have released 15 plays so far this season, and only two of them were bad reads. (Det in week 1 and Buf this past weekend). The other 12 won (and many won easily) and the Chi game was the closest and toughest loss of the season.

It still puts us at 12-3 and I've already begun breaking things down for Week 4. Good luck tonight in your selections!

2008 Week 3 Plays

2008-09-19T09:12:00.014-05:00

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2008 Week 3 Plays:

Ten -4.5
Chi -3
Buf -9.5

Week 3 Comment:

My system is up and running, but as it still is early, I am taking it into consideration but not blindly following it. The system is exceptionally good on certain totals, but there are no large plays this week.

Writeups:

Ten -4 (@ BetUS)
-4.5 (Elsewhere)

Ten is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home off of back to back wins since 2002
Home teams off a win and facing an opponent off of a 21+ point loss are 9-2 ATS and 10-1 SU since 2002.
In the last 10 years, teams w/ a losing record who are off a bye and lost by 21+ prior to the bye who are underdogs in their next game are 3-8 ATS.
If that team is a road dog, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 22 points and failing to cover by an average of 2 TDs.
Houston is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS on the road off a 7+ point loss when playing a team in it's own division who has a winning record. They lose by an avg of 19 points and fail to cover by an avg of 8 points.

The only thing that draws hesitation is that the last 6 matchups by these two teams have been decided on average by 6.5 points. Ten has won all of them, but they have not been easy. However, 3 of those 6 games pitted Ten as the underdogs. The avg line for those 6 games was Ten -1.3 points. The largest line was Ten -6.5 which Ten failed to cover.

Linesmakers have added some wood to the line compared to the recent average, but it does not dissuade me from taking Ten in this spot. Of course, there is no real telling how Ike has affected the mentality of the team. DT Travis Johnson's house was destroyed, a tree crashed into defensive end Mario Williams' home, and a ceiling collapsed in one room of tight end Owen Daniels' house. I have read quotes where they will be "playing for the city", which we know what happened in the Saints first game after Katrina. However, I believe Ten will win and should cover the 4 to 4.5 point line.

Chi -3

Chicago is 3-1 SU in Home Openers under Lovie Smith. In the 3 victories, they averaged 23 points more than their opponents and covered the spread on average by 16.5 points.
Teams who lost as road dogs the week before, but were winning at the half, and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 13-2 ATS since 2001.
Teams who won 2 weeks ago and went away as road dogs the following week and lost but were winning at the half playing and are now home favorites against a team who won last week are 7-0 ATS since 2000.
Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS on the road the week after a home win.
If their opponent lost the week before, that number drops to 1-7 ATS
Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS on a Sunday home opener for their opponent, and if a dog, 1-4 ATS.
Under Gruden, Tampa Bay is 3-10 ATS vs. NFC teams outside their division and 4-9 SU. In their 9 losses, they lost by an avg of 9 points, and failed to cover as a dog in those losses by an avg of 3 points.
Since 2003, Tampa Bay is 5-20 ATS on the road against non-divisional opponents, including 0-5 in 2007.

I think this game will be close and TB's defense is the reason. Some games I play because I believe a team will easily cover the spread. Others I play because I have a high confidence level that a team will cover the spread. The latter is one of those occasions. While I don't predict a lopsided and easy victory, I do think Chi will win this game by 4 or more points.

I am always a little leary on a -3 home line. Historically, it has not been kind to the favorite (2007 in particular). However, we'll lay the 3 and pull for the Bears to continue their run. As a side note, I do believe Lovie's familiarity with Griese's skill set and tendencies is more of an advantage to Chicago than Griese's familiarity with playing in Chicago and against the Chicago defense in practice is an advantage to Tampa Bay.

Buffalo -9.5

Since 2001, the Raiders are 1-9 ATS the week before facing the rival Chargers.
If playing a team outside their division, they are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU, losing by an avg of 16 and failing to cover by an avg of 17.
If on the road, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, losing by an average of 17 and failing to cover by an avg of 14.
If they are underdogs, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing by an avg of 24 and failing to cover by an avg of 16.
Since 2001, the Raiders are 0-4 ATS and SU when playing a non-divisional sandwich game (previous team was in their division, next team is in their division, current team is not).
The Raiders are 1-8 ATS when traveling to play another AFC team in the Eastern time zone since 2003.
Since 1996, Buffalo is 7-1 ATS at home as a TD+ favorite after a win.
In the last 2 years, Buffalo is 13-5-1 ATS after covering in their previous game, including 7-2 ATS at home.

Advice Only:

If you are taking the Buf/Oak Under, make sure you have 37!

This game was on my radar for a potential Under play, however, it would go against my system. So I am not playing it, but I just want to provide this advice to you if you are planning to play the Under:

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time
Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time
Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time
Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

Therefore, having 37 would allow you to push on a number that occurs twice as often as 38, 36, or 35.

You having 36.5 will allow you to win on 36, but you lose on 37, which is twice as valuable than 36. Therefore, I highly recommend if you at all were contemplating playing this under, you take U 37. Again, this is not an official play, it is a recommendation if you do decide to play the Under in this game.

2008 Week 3

2008-09-19T07:08:00.002-05:00

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Rolled out my system and saw the plays. Doing my own capping and comparing it to the system to see what makes the final cut this week. This week is a tricky one, in that of the 16 games, only 1 is a home dog. It is also the first week of games prior to the bye weeks starting, so you have several teams heading into bye weeks after this game.

Further affecting things is that two of the 16 games feature "victim teams" of what I'll call the "ghost bye week" in Bal and Hou. Most teams spend their bye week getting healthy (a few days off), focusing on their next opponent in 2 weeks, and then installing new packages or scouting for future opposition.

Bal and Hou finished Week 1 focused on one another. Their "bye week" was spent focused on a team they thought they'd face. They did not take any time off, nor did they start thinking about Ten and Cle (their week 3 opponents). Bal spent last Thursday preparing Flacco for the crowd noise in Houston's Reliant Stadium, and decided to travel to Houston on Sunday due learning on Thurs that the game was postponed to Monday. It wasn't until Saturday that both teams realized they would not play one another this past Monday. So they started out this week preparing for Ten and Cle. So nothing was "bye" about the week at all except for the lack of a brusing 60 minute game (which is still something to be thankful for if you are a player, but I'm sure you'd rather have a few weeks in a row of that brusing than just 1 game and now it is 15 weeks straight)

Not exactly what you want from a bye week and this completely ignores the fact that Hou players may have been dealing w/ the Ike aftermath during the week.

All these factors combined present a lot to think about when capping these games.

I hope to have my plays out tonight, but there is a strong chance I wont have them out until Saturday AM. Usually I will try to get things out Friday night, and will still aim for that, but you may not get the e-mail until Saturday AM, just to give you a heads up.

Week 2 - MNF

2008-09-15T12:53:00.014-05:00

First, just because I am 10-1 ATS to start the season does not mean load up on my plays. I do my best, but I'm not going to sustain 91% winners over the course of the season. None of my plays are guaranteed - I put in my homework and try to produce results. That's the best I can do.

Second, make sharp decisions about your money management. It's your money, after all. Keep it that way. Don't bet over your head, and stick to your plan that you started from the beginning of the season. For those that followed my plays on Oak, Ten and Chi, I want you to consider putting the same amount on this play as you did those other plays. Don't get dazzled by the lights of MNF. Simply put, this play is no better or no worse than any of those other 3 plays. I have found good value so far this season in "less appealing" games. Tonight is a little different bird, in that it is MNF and is easily the heaviest bet game of the week. So consider that, as well.

That said, I have a play on MNF that I liked from the line release and I still like it today. Of course, you could have received more points at line release, but let's hope that will not be the difference tonight. I started analyzing it last Wednesday and everything checked out. Of course, huge stage tonight in Dallas. And again, this is not a system play, so don't go all in.

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start the Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.

2008 Week 2 Plays

2008-09-13T21:21:00.005-05:00

A reminder prior to the plays: My system has not kicked in, so all plays are based on my own handicapping methods. As good or bad as these plays may turn out, I anticipate stronger results as the season progresses and my system syncs up more and more.

Season to date record for Sharp Football Analysis plays: 7-1

Week 2 Plays:

Chi +3.5
Ten +1
Oak +3.5

Pending Weather Confirmation (will update Sunday) Pit/Cle O 44.5 - DO NOT MAKE THIS PLAY, READ BELOW!!!

Week 2 Comment:

Typically have a short list and from it, my plays. Usually 50-70% of my short list makes my plays. I am very selective from the jump and very focused. This week, my short list is about the same size, but only ~40% of my short list plays have made official play status so far. I still have several plays which I am leaning on, but have not been able to officially release tonight due to a variety of situations surrounding the plays. They don't have my full confidence level. Therefore, you can expect to see at least one, or likely two plays released on Sunday AM. So please do not be disappointed by the small number of plays thus far. Sometimes weeks are like this, and that's all I can tell you about that.

Writeups:

Chi +3.5

I know the only saying about taking a team off a Primetime, Nationally televised win such as SNF or MNF and playing them the following week. People, including some "sharps" are commenting on it. But what is the truth?

The truth is, teams coming off a game such as this who won as a road dog and are now the favorites have gone 12-20 ATS since 2002. Including 2-3 ATS last season. Not so hot.

But that's not what we have here. Here we have an undervalued dog who is a dog again for the second week in a row. Teams who played SNF or MNF and won as a road dog and are dogs for a 2^nd straight week are actually 6-2 ATS since 2002 and 2-0 ATS last season.

That stat isn't necessarily a REASON to take Chi, it's more the "truth" behind some of the numbers you may have seen. As you may know from my style, I'm always one to investigate a stat/trend and find the answer for myself. The fact is, if Chi became a favorite for Sunday's game simply because they looked great on SNF, I wouldn't like them as much.

But Car pulled off a "stunner" to many (remember, I had Car + points last week) out in SD, and now are returning home a town hero. And they've been crowned the 3.5 point favorite on Sunday.

I like Chi in this spot to cover the 3.5, and a couple of reasons I can share are:

As good as Carolina is as a road dog at pulling off upsets, when they get back home they lose gas and are just 1-4 ATS (since 2002) in games following a road dog victory towards the 1^st half of the season.

Carolina is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers under John Fox, including 0-5 SU as a favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU in week 2 games under Lovie Smith.

Ten +1

Since 2002, Tennessee has faced the following teams in Week 2: Indy 3 times, SD once, Dal once, Bal once.

Which week 2 was not like the others? If you guessed Bal, you would be right. Ten won that game 25-10 on a +3.5 line. Ten is going to be glad to face this Cincy team in week 2 as opposed to a NFL power like they have in prior seasons.

After winning at home as an underdog, then hitting the road as a dog the following week, Ten is 5-1 ATS including 3-0 since 2002.

Cincy on the other hand is merely mediocre when following up a road loss back at home. They are 3-3-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis after losing on the road and returning home as a fav.

The game after facing Jacksonville and getting a win, Tennessee is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis following a loss to the Ravens. (Remember, Marvin Lewis coached for Baltimore and those matchups vs. the Ravens are big games for him).

Oak +3.5

A key trend on this one: Teams that were 15+ point road underdogs the prior week and lost in a close game (7 points or fewer) are 2-8 SU the following week back at home.

Potential Play "Heads-Up"

I will give you a "heads up" on a play for Sunday night, however, I will not advise betting until Sunday. This is because WEATHER could affect this play. Of course, that game is Pit/Cle in Cleveland. As you know from my update yesterday morning, I posted Hurricane Ike's storm track. I will update it here again:

The beauty of these images is that they will constantly update. Therefore, the words I am typing now may not relate to the picture you see in a few hours. But, as of Friday afternoon, it appears this system may impact Cleveland on Sunday evening. A lot will still depend on actual storm track once it makes landfall as well as the speed at which it is moving. However, current models are tracking it to hit the Ohio area on Sunday evening. However, some models do show it taking a slightly more "Western" track and may not hit Cleveland Sunday Evening. As of now, the current forecast for Sunday evening in Cleveland is:

And the forecast at Cleveland Stadium, which is right off the water, is currently calling for 20 mph winds from the south, and thunderstorms. If weather was not a factor, I would have already made the play.

I WILL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH I WILL STILL LEAVE THIS WRITE UP HERE, I DEFINITELY DO NOT ADVISE MAKING THIS PLAY. IN FACT, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I ALMOST ADVISE REVERSING AND PLAYING UNDER 44.5.

THIS STORM IS NO JOKE, AND IF THE SYSTEM IS INDEED DIRECTLY OVER CLEVELAND, AROUND 9PM EST, WHICH IS WHAT THE WEATHER REPORTS SEEM TO INDICATE, POINTS WILL DEFINITELY COME AT A PREMIUM. I CAME UP WITH THIS PLAY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS NOT GOING TO PLAY AS LARGE A ROLE. AS WE KNOW KNOW, IT WILL.

SO I AM STILL LEAVING MY WRITEUP HERE, BUT I WILL ADVISE FURTHER IN THE A.M.

Pit/Cle Over 44.5

Since Big Ben has been QB of the Steelers in 2004:

When playing IN Cleveland, the Steelers score an avg of 31 points (24, 41, 24, 34), and the final total game score of 49 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 12 points.

When playing the first H2H matchup of the season, regardless of location, the Steelers score an avg of 32 points (34, 34, 24, 34). The final total game score of 40 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 3 points.

To tally that up, Overs have gone 5-1 in the either the first H2H of the year or if the game is in Cleveland.

I also look back to last season, where Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. the Steelers, losing 34-7. They re-tooled, and those 7 points would be the fewest they would score all season. They went on to avg 26 points the rest of the season, including 51 in Week 2 (albeit vs Cin) and 28 in their next matchup w/ the Steelers.

This season, Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. Dallas, losing 28-10. They surely realize they will struggle to stop Pit on offense, and must find ways to produce big plays on offense and score a large number of points.

Now, I will make you aware that this 44.5 point total is WAY higher than typical totals in this series. Prior to last year's week 10 matchup, the average total for the previous 7 games was 37. Over went 5-2 by an avg of 7 points. Last year in week 10, the total was raised to 47.5, and the game finished at a total of 59, 11.5 points higher than the total.

While the 44.5 point posted total is much higher than fans of this series have come to expect, oddsmakers were left no choice with the constant overs these two teams posted. While I think this is a very fair posted line, I look for value on the side of the Over, as I see both teams contributing to a combined score which should surpass the posted line. A key component will be the kick return ability of Josh Cribbs, who missed last week's game. If Cribbs can get Cleveland into good field position to lead to a quick score in at least 1 of his returns, I see this game eclipsing 44.5.

2008 Week 2

2008-09-09T06:35:00.007-05:00

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***Friday Lunchtime Update:

I am finalizing a few items and will have my plays out to the e-mail participants tonight or worst case, early tomorrow AM. After e-mails go out, I will post the plays on this board Saturday evening, and on messageboards Saturday Late or Sunday AM.

I have received several questions regarding the e-mails. Here is my proposed schedule for this week, and in weeks ahead:

Tues-Thurs - E-mail only if system generates a play which should be made immediately to lock in a line, as Vegas shifts lines against us and value is lost. (Typically will be a totals play)
Friday Eve/Saturday AM - Standard E-mail to announce plays for the weekend
Sunday Morning - Standard E-mail to announce plays for Sunday (which may or may not have been involving actual weather or injuries)
Monday - E-mail only if there is a MNF play which I want to announce and did not do so in my prior e-mails.

E-mails #2 and #3 will be sent each and every week. Sometimes the Sunday e-mail will have NO plays, but I will still send one out so you are not waiting to make selections. Other times the Sunday e-mail will have a play or two.

E-mails #1 and #4 will be sent only as certain plays/situations arise. Once I have sent out the e-mails, I will update an announcement here to inform you as such.***

***Thursday AM Weather Update!!!

Those in Houston already know this, but Hurricane Ike is serious and is bearing down on Houston. Landfall expected Saturday in the early AM, and it will probably make it back to a Category 3 prior to landfall.

The game Sunday afternoon in Houston vs. the Baltimore Ravens could be postponed to Monday, or moved to another city in Texas.

Mentally, this has to affect players on both teams, but players on Houston could have family and friends impacted severely on Saturday, depending on where they live. The Ravens may elect to travel early to Houston and ride out the Hurricane in a hotel.

I just wanted to put this on your radar, no pun intended, in case you were looking at the Hou/Bal game and did not realize these circumstances.

Thursday AM Update over.****

As I am working towards this weekend's plays, I thought I'd share w/ you some previously released reading material.

I encourage you to review all my posts and information I used last season, and I have compiled them in this easy to use page: HERE

I typically make a few types of plays.

System Plays - these kick off Week 3 and after a few weeks I will have a very comfortable level with which systems may do great and which may do good. As you have seen from my record, most plays have done "at least" respectable, with the majority hitting 60-70%. Hitting above 52.4% is the minimum standard for all plays, but I of course aim higher. These system plays are my most reliable (historically) plays.

Weather Plays - I study weather, particularly in Nov/Dec, and jump on lines as early as possible. There are also occasions I think the reaction may be too strong to weather, and will therefore shoot for a middle on a play.

Early Release Plays - These plays typically are borne out of my totals system or weather plays. When I'm running my system and I see a great value in a total, and as I watch that total for 12-24 hours and I see some movement, I will definitely jump on that play. This could be as early as Tuesday morning. Same goes for weather. Typically huge storms and large weather systems are really hyped by the media starting on Thursday (I am referring mainly to snow here). Therefore, my goal usually is beat the public and I jump on these by Wed or Thurs at the latest. The idea is always to get the most value in a line, and you can't do that if you wait until the line has moved multiple points. Sometimes if we are talking about rain/wind, and the system is moving into an area late, perhaps on Saturday afternoon, I will make my play at that time. Weather is always tricky, but I usually have a good intuition for when to make a play, lay off, or make a reverse play.

General value, public perception, team situation/motivation plays. These plays I study starting early in the week and than gauge public reaction. Usually I come to my decision prior to the weekend. These plays are based on a multitude of factors, statistical analysis and trend analysis I preform each week.

The plan this season will be to release my plays by Friday PM/Sat AM. Should there be a total or a weather play that I advise capitalizing on due to potential or actual line movement, I will release that information earlier in the week. I will then be back on Sunday AM with any additional plays or words of advice/caution.

So for those of you who have signed up for my e-mails, you can expect between 2 (typically) to 3 e-mails a week related to my plays. For those that did not sign up, I will still post this information both here and on the messageboards you may have met me at, but I guarantee it will not be prior to my e-mail or this website.

Finally, a word of advice. I am not a perfect handicapper. No one is. Although I started out 7-1 for the season, and have had multiple great seasons, there is no guarantee that any particular weekend won't be a bad one. My entire intent for developing this site into what it is right now is because I am sick and tired of seeing terrible handicappers, famous from past laurels, lead both young and seasoned players astray. I see their records each and every week, and it makes me sad to see people paying big money for their plays. I'm talking well over $100 for 1 week of plays that they end up hitting well below 50% in. Is that a sharp investment? And it's not just 1 bad week, it's like that for 13 of the 17 weeks of the year.

So while I won't claim to be the best in the business, I believe that my record speaks for itself, but at the same time, I realize that unless you made money following my plays in the past (which many have), you only care about the future. And I realize that, which is why I work as hard as I do to make winning plays. Both for myself and for those who follow me. However, above all, I encourage you to use SMART MONEY MANAGMENT. Set a budget, plan it out for the season, use a percentage of that budget on your plays each week. Never roll too large in any one weekend or any one game. It is a LONG season. I am in this for the long haul, not for short term. My goal is always to finish the season up money, and I have never fell short of that goal. Use my plays, if you so desire, but also interject your own logic and thought process. If you disagree on a play, please don't make it. There will be plenty out there that we will agree on.

So, onto Week 2. I hope everyone found success in Week 1 and good luck in Week 2 to all of us.

2008 Week 1

2008-09-03T13:53:00.017-05:00

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****Sunday PM Update - 7-1 to start the season. 2-0 on Thursday night, 5-1 on Sunday, with winners including Carolina, Philly, Buffalo, Philly Under and the Dal/Cle Under. Last year I started the first 3 weeks 11-1 in my personal plays. I released more than usual this week but did not water down the quality of them. Looking forward to another GREAT season!****

****Sat Afternoon Update - I've posted 5 selections below. I will be back on Sunday pre-game with any additional plays. As per usual, I am more cautious in Week 1 than I am later in the season. So while I like these wagers, I advise using smart money management. In addition, remember that my system plays have not kicked in, and those are the plays that I have become known for.****

****Quick Friday AM update - We started out strong, if you read this post the past couple days, you would have seen my take on the NYG/Was game. See the bottom of this entry.

At any rate, NYG covered and the game went under. Nice way to start off the season!

Back to the original thread, which will continue to be updated today and tomorrow, so check back. And if you want to receive "official" plays, sign up and when those start (in another week) you will have them direct to your e-mail and receive them sooner than anyone else who reads this or follows me on the messageboards. Now, back to the original weekly thread****
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A few games I've researched and like the results....

Detroit
Buffalo
Carolina
Philly (w/ a lean towards the Under)
Dal/Cle Under

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.
Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.
With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.
Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.
Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under

In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989.
Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002.

A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under

St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points.
In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points.
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under.

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

A few (hopefully) helpful trends I researched for Thursday's NYG/WAS game:

The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game.

Since the 2003 season (Fassel/Spurrier's last years, then on came Coughlin/Gibbs for 4 years):
In their first H2H meeting of the year, the Redskins are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, losing by an avg of 13.6 points. In their second H2H meeting, the Redskins are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning by an avg of 11.6 points

As a secondary tidbit related to totals:

In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points
In their second H2H meeting, the Over is 3-2, going over by an avg of 6 points. But the Over is 3-0 when the 2nd game is in Washington, going over by an avg of 15 points.

If you think this line is too low to suck you in, what did you think when you saw the Week 1 lines of these defending SB champs:

01 Ravens
-9.5 vs. Chi W 17-6, ATS=W
02 Pats
+2.5 vs. Pit W 30-14, ATS=W
03 Bucs
+3 vs. Phi W 17-0, ATS=W
04 Pats
-3 vs. Ind W 27-24, ATS=W
05 Pats
-7.5 vs. Oak W 30-20, ATS=W
06 Steelers
-1 vs. Mia W 28-17, ATS=W
07 Colts
-6 vs NO W 41-10, ATS=W

Do any of those lines look fishy to you? Looking for action on the other side? The thing is, are you really that sharp to tell if a line is fishy or not? Because if you think NYG-3.5 bet to -4.5 is fishy, you may want to take a second look.

Preseason hype has surrounded the Giants in a negative way, from losing Osi and Strahan to other players lost from their SB team. Redskins march in w/ a new head coach, Jason Taylor, and ready to battle a division foe. To me, nothing fishy about the line whatsoever, based on present and past indications.

My threads at message boards from 2008

2008-03-01T16:05:00.004-05:00

Super Bowl 2008 - A Strong Position

2008-01-28T21:32:00.000-05:00

I have done my research and checked my facts. I will post my analysis and plays.

New England's Playoff Dominance off a Bye

The first fact I mention is the most important:

NE has never lost a playoff game under Belichick after a bye week. 7-0.

NE is the best team in the NFL this year. NE is stronger than they have ever been under Belichick.

For this reason, though the Giants of course have a chance to win, I would bet strongly against the Giants winning this game. NE has never lost a playoff game off a bye before and they are now a better team than they have ever been before.

Please see the following graphic of the Pats playoff games under Belichick following a bye:

A few things to point out.

#1: Once again, 7-0 ML. Some games have been 11+ point victories. But the others have been by exactly 3 points.

#2: The Pats have never been outscored in the 4th quarter. Not only that, in 6 of the 7 games, Pats have not been outscored in the entire 2nd half. Only in one game did the opponent put up more in the 2nd half than the Pats did, and that was in the 04 DP where the Titans put up 4 more than the Patriots.

#3: The Under has gone 5-1-1. The lone over was their 2nd SB vs. Car, where teams were scoreless in the 1st and 3rd quarters, and the game was only 14-10 after 3, but they scored 37 points in the 4th and the O/U was only 38 to begin with.

#4: In the two most recent DPs, the Pats largest lead was the final margin of victory. In their 3 SBs, the Pats were up by 10, 7, and 14 earlier in the game before winning by only 3.

What my system showed

Looking towards my system, I have capped the game (taking adjustments for a pure, neutral field) at Pats -10. When you factor in that the Pats are more adapted to playing in the SB and have been playing in crutial, clutch situations for the majority of this year and have always been victorious, I'd say that this could be bumped to Pats -13 to -14.

However, this is the SB and the balls don't always bounce the way you would predict. Eight times out of ten, if this SB was played 10 times, I say Pats win by at least 10-13. Maybe one time out of ten is this game decided by single digits. And maybe just maybe there is one time out of ten that it's a coin flip game tied at the end w/ the Pats winning by a FG.

Sure, the Giants "could" win, but I hold that at about 5% chance, and as the odds are small that it happens, I factor it in at around 5% but leave it at that.

Rematch Factor

Let's get into another analysis. Here we'll look at rematches. Typically a rematch will only occur in division. There are several times it occurs in the playoffs as well. Two of the three Giants playoff games have been regular season rematches, and one of the two NE playoff games were rematches.

So, how do these teams take what they learned from the first meeting an apply it to the second. What typically happens w/ the scores of the rematch? If you ask me before I did the analysis, I'd probably say that the defenses have more time to adjust and the rematch game is slightly lower scoring.

Same can be said off a bye week. Offenses put in new packages and new wrinkles off a bye week, especially for a SB. But defenses (assuming it's a rematch from the regular season) can really adjust, strategize, and better matchup personnel to account for problems they had in the first meeting and plan for potential schemes or plays the opposing team may run. So, does a 2nd meeting of the year favor the either team in particular, or does it favor scoring or does it favor defense?

First, let's look at the

NYG in rematches:

The points to take away:

#1 - Typically in years past, NYG allowed more points to its opponents in their 2nd mtg than in their first. However, Steve Spagnuolo has firmed up this unit, when he replaced Tim Lewis last year. Now, NYG allows 6 fewer points in rematches, which is a 12 point improvement over 2006 and a 18 point improvement over 2005.

#2 - The NYG offense typically scores about 4 points less in rematches, which is about the same as they've done the past few years.

#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.

#4 - In the games where NYG did well in the first matchup, they didn't do as well in the rematch (Was and Phi games, though they did win both Phi games). In the games where NYG did poorly in the first meeting, they did better in the rematch (Dal playoff game, GB playoff game). I think NYG feel they did very well in the first meeting w/ the Pats. Also, NYG typically lost the rematch game by an avg of 3 points (though they did go 3-2, winning the 3 in close fashion, and losing the other 2 by 11 or 12 points).

Summary: NYG defense has improved in the rematch over its performance in the first meeting of the season. The final total scores are lower and the opponents put up fewer on the board.

Now, we can look at

NE in its rematches:

The points to take away:

#1 - NE also allowed 6 fewer points to its opponents in rematch games, which is the same as NYG, and is an improvement over NE's 2006 and 2007 defenses, though not by as much as NYG's improvement.

#2 - NE typically scored 10 points less in rematches. This was an interesting phenomenom which many blame on bad weather. However, while weather may have been a factor, it should have affected both teams. I know the Pats love to throw, but when the Pats get the lead then the other team will be affected trying to come back by throwing the ball. So at any rate, I won't discount that stat - teams adjusted and limited the Pats on offense by 10 fewer points.

#3 - In rematches, the average final score was 41 points. If you look past the 66 point rematch blowout score vs. Buf (56-10), the avg was only 33 total points. That is a far cry from the 1st meeting scores, which were 57 points.

#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)

Summary: Scores in the rematches were lower. Pats D stepped up and their offensive production dropped off. Many conclude the offensive dropoff is more correlated to inclement weather as opposed to opposing DCs scheming for NE. Personally I think that you should have at worst a 50/50 split, which means -5 PPG for NE for weather and -5 PPG for NE for opposing D adjustments.

Here is a summary comparison for both NYG and NE. This does not introduce new information, but is more of a summary level comparison between teams:

Analysis of Potential Plays

Moneylines vs. Spread

Right now Pinny has NYG ML +425. Most other books are between +325 and +380

This equates to typical spreads of +7.5 to +9.5. Essentially, they are reducing the payout of NYG ML and paying it only as if NYG was a 7.5 to 9.5 point dog.

Right now the best NE ML you can get is just over -400 and goes up to -500, depending on where you shop.

This equates to typical favorite spread of -7.5 to -8. In other words, they are pricing Pats ML bets as if the Pats were approx 8 point favorites.

Therefore, it is not sharp to put in NYG ML and get only +400 or lower. You are much better off taking the points.

Similarly, placing NE ML and getting around -400 is not a square bet at all. You can't look at it as if you are taking a -12 to -13 point fav and laying down on a ML. Typically on a 12 or 13 point fav, you would pay anywhere from -1100 to -1500.

I believe they have adjusted MLs because on the SB you will have tons of new money coming in. Many will take the dog ML, particularly this Giants team. So they can afford to reduce the payout and people will still play, because face it, most people still think +400 is good, and they don't realize that they should get +750 for a 12 point dog which is a huge difference.

Looking closer, Vegas they have moneylined this game as NE -8, but inflated it on the spread to -12. Therefore, I play either NE ML or NYG + points. I don't play NE on the spread and I don't play NYG ML.

Totals

I think you have to look back at #3 for NYG and #4 for NE above:

#3 - In rematches, the average final score is 39 points. NYG have not played in a rematch game this year where the final score was above 51 points, and it was 43 points total or below in 4 out of their 5 rematch games.

#4 - In the rematches, the Pats still won comfortably for the most part, but the avg final score was 23-10 (again, ignoring Buf 56-10. Including that and it's 31-10)

The other thing you have to do is look back at rematches of both teams. They both hold the opposing team to an avg of 6 fewer points scored and score an avg of 6 fewer on offense. So for the skeptics, you will say "73 points were scored in the first meeting, so 12 fewer is still 61, well above the total".

And I will tell you that a lot had to go right for NYG to put up 35 that first meeting.

Do you really think NYG will return 8 KOs for 221 yards and 1 TD again? I know both teams are in the top 7 in KO returns, but NYG does not come close to that avg over the regular season, and had only 1 TD all year and that was against NE. Rest assured, NE will be better prepared in KO coverage.
Secondly, do you really think Eli will throw for 250 and 4 TDs and only 1 Int?
Third, do you think that Feagles will avg only 30 yards per punt for NYG and Hanson for NE will only avg 39.5 yards per punt? Feagles averaged 40 yds per game on the season, and Hanson's warmest games of the year, in Mia and the 1st game of the year @ NYJ in Sep, he avg over 52 yds. Special teams will be a factor in terms of field position, and I think both teams special teams will not play as poorly this game as they played in Dec.

Then you have to look back at NE's record in these bye week games, and they are 5-1-1 Under. Opposing teams averaged 17, and looking only at SBs, averaged 22.

I don't really like the total here but if a play must be made, I would take the Under 54.

Prop Play

Here's a play that stands out to me if you A) want to hedge any NE money you have out there and hope for a middle or B) just think the Giants can get a cover.

Right now you've got NYG +12 on avg. You can buy it up a bit, but that's where you are at. You could take NYG +17.5 for -220 if you want.

To me, the best option in this situation is "Largest Lead Under 18" for even or + Juice.

Here is why:

Look above to #2 and #4 under the "NE Playoff Dominance":

#2: The Pats have never been outscored in the 4th quarter. Not only that, in 6 of the 7 games, Pats have not been outscored in the entire 2nd half.

#4: In the two most recent DPs, the Pats largest lead was the final margin of victory. In their 3 SBs, the Pats were up by 10, 7, and 14 earlier in the game before winning by only 3.

If you look further at the first graphic, you will see the largest lead NE ever had after a bye week was 17 when they beat Ind 20-3.

The only game out of the 7 bye week playoff games where a team got a backdoor cover on NE was the Phi SB where the line was -7, NE was up 10, and Phi scored a TD to make it a 3 point game w/ 3 minutes left. They got the backdoor cover on a -7 point line.

Otherwise, all these games were relatively close, and NE either pulled away in the 2nd half or did enough to get the win in the 2nd half. Otherwise, the largest lead the Pats had at the half was a TD.

So here is the question to ask yourself. If you like NYG +12, but you think NE will win, how do you see it playing out? A close game throughout? NYG leading at the half but NE come back in the 2nd? Or NE leading at the half and it stays close throughout?

Because I think if you like NYG +12, you will only win that bet if the largest lead of the game is around 12 to 14 as well. If the Pats get up by more than 17 points, you will really be hating life begging Eli to not screw things up and march down for a TD in the 4th to get you a cover. That will be a tough spot.

Personally, I like the Under 18 point lead prop bet. Could NE get up by more than 18 and then NYG come back to cover? Yes, of course. How?

Well, being up by 19 is unlikely (26-7) but 20 is foreseeable. 30-10. 27-7. Then the problem if you have NYG +12 is, you'll need more than 1 TD to come back and get your cover. You'll need NYG to hold NE on 2 possessions and for NYG to score on 2. Most likely after the half. I just find it unlikely. It could happen, but wouldn't you like to have the buffer of 18 points rather than 12?

Sure, you could lay -220 and take NYG +17.5. But for plus juice, you can have largest lead under 18. You'd win the NYG +17.5 if NE is up by 20 and then NYG score once. Then your play would be superior to the prop. But I'm leaning on that prop play as a superior play than NYG +12.

My Plays

If you can't figure them out from reading the above, you probably glazed over things.

I'm going heavy on NE ML. I really think this is the smartest play going. I know it could lose, that's why you don't wager more than you are willing to lose. But I like it to win.

My final play for now is putting some on the Under 54. Again, not crazy about it, but think it has a shot.

The other play I have not started playing, and will continue to shop around. What I'm thinking:

I'm coming back w/ a much less on largest lead under 18 prop. Yes you can't bet as much on these props, so I'm planning on putting this in at a couple of shops.

I can win both bets if this is a NE win and it's not by a crazy margin. There is a chance (always is) that NE wins by 20 or 21 or maybe more. Which is why I'm wagering (to win) double on NE ML. I don't think I can lose both. I will be shocked if NYG get a lead of 20 and win. I will be equally shocked if NE is up by 20 or more and then blow the game and lose.

I won't discuss my personal amounts wagered. I'll use a fictional "X" to show you the approx % I am putting on one play vs. the other. But my strategy here is this:

Have already played:

12X to win 3X on NE ML
(Have bet and will continue to bet as close to -400 as I can get)

.2X to win .2X on the Under 54
(Small amount for what I think has a decent shot)

May play:

I have contemplated getting "cute" and playing:

X to win 1.1X on Largest Lead Under 18
(This is a possible middle attempt, and I like this much more than laying -220 to get NYG +17.5)
The problem is, I'm not a "cute" bettor and this play would essentially be a "buy back" on my NE ML position. If NYG win, the game will be close and instead of losing 12X, I'd only lose 10.8X. May not seem like much w/ the amounts I'm looking at totaling on this ML play, but it will help out should that "5%" chance that NYG wins comes through.

There is a chance I will also put some on NE minus the points, but I would probably rather either put it on the ML or put it on an alt spread giving me + juice.

Parting Words

NE ML. Yes, you have to lay 4 times the amount you want to win. Laying -400 juice does that to you. But again, if you were looking at NE ML as if it was a true -12 point line, you'd be laying between 33X and 42X just to win 3X. Here you only have to lay 12X.

For me, a winning day is a winning day. I'm lining myself up to be very satisfied w/ a profit of 3X knowing that I have 12X on the line.

Would I love to lay NE -12.5 for +100 and put X on and win X? Sure. Maybe even put 2X to win 2X on it. But would I feel as confident in this play when I've got -400 on the ML available?

Again, I can still put some on the spread, the week is still young, but I feel much better having it on the ML. But for now, I'm very comfortable w/ my bets thus far, and look forward to increasing my amounts on NE ML if I can get a better price closer to the game.

I hope you really took the time to look at these tables and draw your own conclusions. I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Hopefully you don't just think "duh", NE ML is so obvious. Unless you studied the ML prices and looked at NE's previous performances in the playoffs, I think it's slightly less obvious. Having looked at the prices, I think ML is a must here. Play NE on the spread if you want to , but I'd put some on ML too, just in case.

If you are a NYG bettor, tell me what you think about the Largest Lead Under 18. I'm strongly considering that bet in hopes of winning both it and NE ML, and should I only win NE ML, I'd still be up quite nicely.

Good luck to whatever you choose to do, and I hope you take something more away from this post than my plays. I hope the information I presented has shown you something or taught you something that you may not have known or considered.

A few notes on Bill Cowher

2008-01-09T11:21:00.001-05:00

A lot has been said about Cowher and what he did in Pittsburgh, so here are some numbers...

Following are the cumulative regular-season records of each NFL team since 1992:

RECORDS OF NFL TEAMS (1992-Week 16 of Cowher's last year)

Team W L T Pct. Division Titles

Pittsburgh 148 90 1 .622 8
Green Bay 148 91 0 .620 6
Denver 147 92 0 .617 3
Kansas City 140 99 0 .588 4
Miami 135 104 0 .567 3
Minnesota 135 104 0 .567 4
New England 135 104 0 .567 7
San Francisco 135 104 0 .567 6
Philadelphia 134 104 1 .565 4
Indianapolis 133 106 0 .559 4
Dallas 132 107 0 .555 6
Tennessee 128 111 0 .536 3
Jacksonville 102 89 0 .534 2
Buffalo 123 116 0 .519 2
Baltimore 90 84 1 .517 1
New York Giants 119 119 1 .500 2
San Diego 116 123 0 .486 3
Tampa Bay 116 123 0 .486 2
Seattle 115 124 0 .482 2
St. Louis 114 125 0 .477 3
Carolina 89 102 0 .466 2
Chicago 109 130 0 .456 2
Oakland 109 130 0 .456 3
New York Jets 108 131 0 .452 2
Atlanta 107 131 1 .449 2
New Orleans 107 132 0 .446 1
Washington 103 135 1 .431 1
Detroit 93 146 0 .386 1
Cleveland 70 121 0 .365 0
Cincinnati 87 152 0 .359 1
Arizona 84 155 0 .347 0
Houston 23 56 0 .291 0

Bill Cowher is one of only six head coaches in NFL history to win at least eight division titles.

Cowher’s 57.1 division title winning percentage is the best in the NFL since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Below is the list of all NFL coaches who have coached at least 200 regular season games, sorted by regular season win %.

2007-12-14T08:36:00.000-05:00

If you've taken a beating in weeks 6-8, don't fear:

2007-10-29T07:54:00.000-05:00

For a lot of dog bettors, sharp players, or guys who get caught in a pattern, you may have had a bad few weeks. Why? Well, because the NFL season typically goes in ebb and flow. There are definite periods of 3-4 weeks when dogs just seem to kick ass. Then, everyone catches up w/ the high number of dogs, and it seems favs start to do better. It's the linesmaker's way of keeping you on your toes, but if you're not careful, and they hope you are not, keeping your money in their pockets.

First, let's take a look at how things have gone (on avg) the past 5 seasons and how things have gone thus far this season, and you'll get an idea of what I mean. Note that the weekly averages really vary from one year to the next, and we will get into that more later...

Typically, and by that I mean on average, not every single season, dogs start out better than they do in the 2nd half of the season. And we saw that this year too. In fact, it was an extreme in weeks 2-5. Dogs were producing very well. So what happened?

Well, perhaps you, like myself and others, started thinking that dogs would continue to bark just as much as they have been early on. And what happens? They lost their bite. Dogs have hit at much lower % than they do on average. I don't think its a coincidence either. These linesmakers are brilliant guys. They are smarter than any of us. You have the psychology of guys taking a few favs in the early weeks that lose, and the player starts to doubt his plays, and goes for a dog when he shouldn't, because his dogs have been coming through, or his favs were losing to dogs.

Now, does this happen every year?

You may be suprised, but the answer is: YES.

Take a look at all data from 2001 thru 2007. What I did was I took the weekly ATS for dogs, and I found the "periods" or groups of weeks where dogs or favs did very well for a couple of weeks in a row, and then it reversed for a few weeks. And I grouped them by these "periods".

A few things I want to show you:

1. Note that dogs don't always start off well. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.

2. Note that starting in week 6 and ending in week 8 or 9, we typically have a "period" of change that is vastly different from the prior few weeks. Sometimes dogs do better, but in most cases, dogs have done much worse during this period of time.

3. Look at this more by viewing the column to the right. This is a calculation of the % change from the period directly before weeks 6-8 (or 9) to that of weeks 6-8/9. The only season there was not a strong pronouncement was in 2004.

4. Look at the dropoff after the 6-8 week "period". Typically if weeks 6-8 are great, as in 2001 and 2006, the dogs don't do as well in the next "period". But they didn't do terrible, either. But when the dogs have done poor in the "period" around weeks 6-8, or dropped off from what they started the season out at, they will typically rebound in the following "period". 2003 is the most similar season to this one, where dogs only went 43% for the "period" of weeks 6-8 (42% this season). They then rebounded back to 56%. Every season where dogs did worse in weeks 6-8/9, they improved the following "period".

5. The only exception was that terrible year for dog players in 2005, where favs covered more than any time in recent memory.

So, what can we expect?

Well just because I tell you I think that over the next 3 or 4 weeks, I think dogs will do better, does not mean you'll win money. Firstly, they probably won't be hitting much better than they did to start the season, and secondly, you still have to play the right sides.

But, we should find out over the next couple of weeks if a dog bettor's season will start to improve. My money says it will, and I'll continue to play my dogs (and a few select favs when I like one). I never blindly play a dog because he's a dog, but it definitely factors in.

Last year, dogs started out at only 47% and then in the "period" of weeks 6-8, jumped to 63%. The reverse of this year.

So, to all you who have had a down few weeks, this usually happens each year. It will vary between which side is getting the most play, but I can tell you from looking at the numbers, we definitely went through a transition again this season during the "period" or weeks 6-8. Will it last another week before we see a change? Perhaps. But sometime during weeks 10-11, we should see a decent stretch for those sharp dog bettors. That is, if we can learn anything from the past.

Don't get discouraged, better days lie ahead.

Teasing across Zero, other teaser myths, and High Percentage Teases

2007-10-19T06:57:00.000-05:00

First, I encourage you to read my predecessor article on teasers:

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/truth-about-teasers-must-read-for-those.html

I decided to do a closer look at each and every pointspread to see when teasing is "typically" of value and when it is not. If you understand that you must hit 52.37% of your plays at -110 juice, you should also understand that if you want to win playing 2 team, 6 point teasers, each leg should have better than 73.1% chance of hitting. On a 3 team, 10 point teaser, each leg should have better than 81.1% chance of winning. And on a 4 team, 13 point teaser, each leg should have better than 85.5% chance of winning.

So those are what we are looking for when we target teasers. Of course, selecting games in a teaser is the same as selecting them in straight wagers. You have to cap the game and see when a team has good value. The hard part about teasers is the fact that if you misread one game, or get "unlucky" in 1 game, the whole teaser is lost. Whereas on a straight play, you only lose 1 play. Therefore, treat a "whole teaser" like a single play. Don't wager more than you normally would because you think "this has to hit". And don't let 1 teaser loss ruin your weekend, even if it is because you lost 1 game out of 4 in a 4 team teaser. You should have a couple other straight plays to get you where you need to be, and remember: everyone has a down weekend now and then. Lastly, know that teasers are jackpots for sportsbooks, because many "average joes" play them and lose. So if you can actually win consistently on teasers, consider yourself in lucky company.

Now, if that didn't dissuade you from wanting to play teasers, here we go. These numbers are drawn from a database dating back to 2000. (I could go farther back, but I wanted to look at the most recent 6 seasons.)

Teasing the Favorite

The Myth of Teasing across Zero

That's the first thing that jumps out at us when we look at this. The plays highlighted in the yellow color are those where the teased line has crossed zero. The plays in red are those that are above our target percentages. Remember, no teaser has a 52.4% target, 6 point, 10 point and 13 point teasers have their own targets. Therefore, I have a column in each category which shows the % over the target. If it's positive, that play is a solid one that, when paired w/ other positive plays, could help produce a winning teaser.

If negative, you're looking at a poor tease possibility. For instance, look at teasing from -11.5 or -12 down to -5.5 or -6. That teaser won only 47% of the time, which is 26% less than you need to actually earn money as a leg of a 6 point teaser.

The best 6 point teaser is teasing RIGHT ACROSS ZERO with a -3.5 or -4 point favorite and making that team a +2 or +2.5 point dog. It's hit 10% more than taking a -2.5 or -3 point favorite and making them a +3 or +3.5 point dog. Typically, you would think "why would I want to tease to +2.5? Wouldn't I want to make sure it was at +3? And you would think so, but based on historical lines, you would be wrong.

Also, look at teasing teams that are -3.5 or -4 in a 6 point, 10 point, or 13 point teaser. Either way, they are one of the best teams to put into any teaser.

Teasing the Underdog

As you can see and as you should know, you don't cross zero teasing a dog. But, as described in the prior article (linked at the top) teasing dogs is far less profitable than teasing favs. Look at the overall odds of hitting straight wagers w/ dogs. There's only 3 out of 13 that hit less than 50%. And the majority are hitting over that 52.4% mark.

Teasing them, on the other hand, yields far less "red" selections above our target levels.

I'll let you take what ever else you want to from this one.

Summary of Top Teasers

The following are summary tables which are quick references from the above tables, highlighting top teaser candidates.

Top 6 Point Candidates

Top 10 Point Candidates

Top 13 Point Candidates

Summary Points

I hope this gives you a good overview as to which spreads are more likely to produce winning plays. However, this does not mean these hit 100%. Even the best are hitting at a rate where you need to also employ some solid capping skills and as always, have a bit of luck on your side. The goal, however, is to equip you with all of these tools, so that you can combine your capping w/ solid ATS trends by pointspread. Hopefully the combination will give you added advantage, and in some cases, steer you away from a potential negative play. More could be done, such as looking at home field vs road, or adding total information to the queries. But this is a good middle ground and hopefully you will find some useful information that leads to winning plays. Good luck.

Perception of Home Field Advantage vs. ATS results

2007-10-17T10:27:00.000-05:00

Like it or not, for the most part, the "dumb betting public" views each team based on what they have seen from them lately, and their W/L record. The public has also been influenced by ESPN and other media to believe that certain teams are simply better at home or on the road.

Think of what you have heard... how hard it is to play at Mile High Stadium in Denver. How intimidating it is for teams to travel and play in the Black Hole out in Oakland. Other places that seem to hold a great home field advantage, such as the noise from the "12th man" in Quest Field in Seattle. The heat down in Miami in September/early October. What about KC, the frozen tundra of Lambeau, or the domes in NO, ATL, STL, Min, Det?

Well, I hope this article will shed some light as to which teams really do have a home field advantage, and which really do not. Therein, which teams win at home, and which teams do not. Even more important, which teams COVER at home and which do not.

And then we'll take it even further, and examine which teams have sustained success on the road, vs. those teams who can't quite cut it in games away from home.

In each scenario, I looked at how a team has done the last 5 years, and then also broke out this current year. Although this current year is young and less than halfway through, it is still interesting to see if a certain team has reversed its fortunes or has continued along the same path.

Home Teams ATS

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/6/10/17/f_HomeTeamsATm_2c54dda.png

The Ravens have been solid at home ATS, but somewhat suprising that they are tops in the NFL over this 5 year span. Not really known for a huge home field advantage compared to some other clubs. You do have a couple Florida teams up there in Jac and TB, but the rest are pretty much the tops in the NFL in terms of solid teams the last few years: NE, Pit... KC is known for its home field advantage and it shows based on their ATS at home. Dal, though not near as dominant in the NFC the last few years (the past couple aside) still has covered well at home.

What's most interesting is the teams that are poor. NO, ATL and Oak are at the bottom. 2 dome teams and the Black Hole. Perhaps too much emphasis has been made in the line on their home field advantage, or at least in the public's mind, and really there is not much advantage for those teams at home. Some good teams over the last few years like Car, NYG and Cin also don't show up as much at home. But the biggest suprise is Denver. I'll get into them more after I show the next chart.

This is the same chart from above, but sorted by the column "SU-ATS". Basically, it shows which teams UNDERPERFORMED at home ATS but still managed good SU records. And similarly, which teams are known for losing at home, yet have solid ATS records.

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/6/10/17/f_OvervaluedHm_49749da.png

As you can see from this chart, Den has the largest discrepancy in the NFL in terms of home games won vs. home games covered in the NFL. That could be in part because since 2002, they have only been home dogs one time, this weekend to Pittsburgh! I couldn't believe it at first, but it is true. They have never been home dogs since their 2002 Week 1 matchup w/ the Rams.

At any rate, their "home field" advantage has been played up far to much in the media and has caused bettors to lose out on $ far to long now. Let's look at the next offender (you have to skip Ind, KC, NE and Pit, because they are only up so high since they have such a large SU win %. They still cover 50% or much better ATS at home.)

Seattle, GB and St. Louis. 3 teams that have a supposed great home field advantage. While their SU records have been great, they don't get the cover in most cases. Lastly is Miami. Teams have to fly down to the tip of the Country in the heat to play them, but Miami just does not get the covers at home like you would think, whereas some other Florida teams do. In fact, even looking at the limited data from this season, you'll find that the only team above .500 ATS at home from this group in red has been GB.

Moving from the bad to the good, at the bottom are teams who may not win many home games, but have done very well in covering the past 5 years. And in fact, look over to 2007 and you'll see that none of these teams are below .500. Many have continued that stellar ATS at home this year.

With that look at how teams have done at home, let's move along to teams that are great or terrible on the road.

Road Teams ATS

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/6/10/17/f_RoadTeamsATm_d33c055.png

It should be to no one's suprise that NE has been at the top of the league in road covers. 69% though is a huge number above and beyond the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place clubs. What is equally suprising, after studying the poor home teams, is the number of teams "in the red" who were bad at home covers are "in the green" with great road covers. The list includes Car, NO, ATL and Cin. Even GB, which was good at winning home games but poor at covering, is "in the green". It should be no suprise that 2 of the powerhouses in the AFC join NE "in the green": Indy and SD.

Let's look at the poor teams on the road. Try considering the entire NFC West as teams that don't cover well on the road. Ari, STL, ST, and Sea's right there too at 44%. The Raiders have just been bad, they can't get it done at home or on the road. Then a couple teams who play in extreme environments: Chi and TB. Chi plays a lot of road games in domes, as does TB, so that could factor in.

Getting back to good teams to bet on, this next chart is the same as the road teams chart, but it is sorted by "SU-ATS". This will show us teams on the road who win a lot but don't cover, and likewise, those that lose a lot but do cover.

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/6/10/17/f_Undervaluedm_24f354e.png

First, the teams that are at the top, showing they "win a lot but don't cover" is not very meaningfull. Most of these teams landed here simply because they won so many SU that even if they have just above a .500 ATS on the road, it's not as great as their SU win %. But at the top, you find perhaps the top 4 teams since 2002 in the NFL. From the AFC you have Indy, NE and Pit. And from the NFC: Philly.

Moving down to numbers we can use: teams in the green don't win at a high rate on the road, but do bring a game usually, and pull off a suprising % of covers than you may expect. Det only has won 16% of its road games, but covered 44% of them. Houston, Cleveland, Buffalo are 3 other relatively "poor" teams who have done better than average on the road. Same w/ Washington and Cincy.

So there you have it. A look at which teams really do have a home field advantage, and which do not. And a look at which teams have got the job done on the road for bettors, even if they didn't win SU. These are the type of charts I print and refer to each and every week as I see the lines spit out from Vegas, and hear the talking heads blabbing about "poor weak Cleveland heading into the menacing Black Hole", or Denver's Mile High Stadium, or the "12th man" in Seattle.

You can keep talking up the hype, ESPN, trying to generate ratings. I'll keep my mouth shut and keep on winning.

Best Bets on Dogs, Stray from these Favs

2007-09-13T11:21:00.000-05:00

Last year, as the year progressed, you can tell which teams the public "buys into". And just as easily, you can tell which teams the public just does not understand.

"Why do they keep losing, they are stacked w/ talent and coaching?"
or
"I can't believe this team keeps covering - they should get blown out. They're killing me!"

And yet game after game, these teams continue to be undervalued or overvalued. We can learn from last year, but once again, you still have to look at this years teams/stats/results and not just bet on a team who was great as a Dog ATS last season for no other reason but that one.

Getting started, let's look at the Favorites:

The Broncos were the worst offender on this list. They were made favorites in 13 of their 16 games, and failed to cover in 10 of the 13 games. However, they were able to win 8 of those games. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost as favorites in Buffalo. Not much has changed.

A close second offender were the Jags. They failed to cover in 7 of the 10 games they were favorites. The even bigger problem - they failed to win those games. If they didn't cover, they didn't win. And if they won, they would cover. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost outright to the Titans. Not much has changed.

The Broncos in particular were one of those teams the public just did not get. Vegas continued to make money by making Denver the favorite, and the public continued to wager on them.

The teams in red are those favorites who would have lost you money if you took them and laid the points on every game they were favored.

On the other hand, the Jets were kind to bettors. They went 5-1 as favorites ATS (and of course won them all, as they were favored).

So far this season, of the teams who would have won you money last year, the Chargers, Bengals, Steelers and Pats were all favored in week 1. And they all covered. Not much has changed. But be careful, none of those teams had "way above avg" ATS ratings, but they were better than average.

The Jets far and away would be the team that got the job done last year. They are another example of a team the public did not get. The public would take the dog, and the Jets would continue to cover.... the opponents in these games were among the NFL's lowliest - Mia, Det, Hou, GB, Buf, Oak. But even though the oddsmakers kept the lines below -5 for the Jets (except Oak), the easy money was not so easy to the public, and those who took the Jets and laid points walked away happy.

Next, the Underdogs:

There were some underdogs who did absolutely terrible ATS last year. But they kept failing to cover the spread, and you made out if you bet against them. There were 4 teams that were underdogs in 14 of their 16 games. These teams were viewed as terrible by the avg bettor. They were:

Oak, GB, Det and Ten.

How do you think those teams did SU? Not as bad as you may think - 20-36.

What about ATS? How about 29-26. That's right, they actually had a winning record ATS.

The reason? Part of it has to do with the fact that the public just does not understand most underdogs. Another part was the Titans. These guys went 11-3 ATS despite being constantly made the underdogs. And worse than that?

Of those 11 wins, they only lost the game SU 3 times. That means they covered as dogs in 79% of their games, and won SU in their games as dogs 57%.

Even more impressive, since Vince Young started for them (which was week 5, I believe - correct me if I'm wrong), Ten has covered in 10 of the 11 games they were dogs. That's 91%. And won 8 of the 10 SU. For 8 straight weeks last season (weeks 9-16) they were dogs. Starting in week 10, they covered every single game, and starting week 11 (that's 6 straight) they won outright as dogs.

Looking at week 1 of this season, the Titans were dogs to the Jags, and the Titans covered and won SU as well. Not much has changed.

Other teams that were particularly impressive were the Saints and the Bills. Don't expect the public to sleep on the Saints this year, but they may on the Bills. While covering the spread in 8 of their 11 games as dogs, they actually lost 7 of them. So careful on ML-ing the Bills, but taking the points may not be too bad an investment in the right situation.

In the Bills first game of this season, they covered as dogs but lost SU to the Broncos. Not much has changed.

Looking at the other side, the teams to be extra cautious is the Redskins. By far the worst record ATS as dogs, the Skins went 4-9 ATS.

The truth about Teasers. A must read for those who play them or who refuse to do so.

2007-09-12T13:53:00.000-05:00

The next in my background articles about sports betting, I’m tackling the topic of teasers. I have seen many this week discuss going the route of teasers. Teasing is a way for a player to take the fav but give fewer points (or eventually receive them) and/or to take the dog and get more points. The catch is, instead having to win only 1 game in a regular ATS bet, you have to win more:

2 games in a standard 6 point teaser
3 games in a 10 point teaser
4 games in a 13 point “super” teaser

I’ve analyzed teasers from 2000 onwards. That gives us 7 full seasons of data. I looked at teasing from two vantage points: The first is teasing the Underdog, the second is teasing the Favorite.

The point of this article is to get actual information on historical trends to help predict future results. The main point is to show you which key numbers are the most key to cross in a teaser, and which teasers win most often and which do not.

The other thing you should know is that I have calculated my %s of winning a teaser based on picking 2 teams from that same range in the line. For instance, when calculating odds of winning a teaser for underdogs of +0.5 to +3 in a 6 point teaser, I found out the odds of an underdog who was +0.5 to +3 getting 6 additional points, and how they would have done ATS. In this case, the odds were that you would hit 73% of the games in that situation. But those are not the odds to win the teaser, as you have to hit 2 games to win the teaser.

So for a 2 game teaser, you multiply the odds together. For purposes of my comparative analysis, I multiplied 73% x 73%. Which gives you 54%. So if you teased 2 teams together in a 6 point teaser, and both were between +0.5 and +3, you would have a 54% chance of winning.

What I didn’t calculate was the chance of winning a teaser if you teased 2 teams by 6 points, but the first was between +0.5 and +3, and the second was between +6.5 and +10. I calculated the individual chances, but not the combination of the two. I will post a table which will allow you to do the math yourself, all that is required is to multiply the %s together.

First, a little background on needed % of wins to make money. I’ve taken the following paragraph from a respected site:

It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice and simply break even. Reduced juice betting drastically affects the win % by bringing this number down: -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.

So as you can see, you have flexibility when placing standard bets. You can place the bet when the juice is to your liking. Pinny will keep the line still but shift the juice from + juice to – juice, all in the matter of hours. You can also buy points to get yourself to certain numbers you want. Of course, it gets expensive to buy to key numbers, like 3 or 7, but to get to other numbers, it is not as expensive.

The bottom line, when placing a typical spread bet, you have flexibility. However, when placing a teaser, that flexibility goes out the window. No buying points, no selecting games based on juice. Teasers at sportsbooks will have standard juice, no matter which teams you select. 2-team, 6-point teasers will have a certain amount of juice, which will most likely be different from 3-team 10 point teasers and different from 4-team 13 point teasers.

There are many articles out there about how to tease published by different sites, and I’m not here to talk about generalities. There are many gamblers out there who say “Teasers are the Devil”, and some who like teasing. I’m not here to convince you one way or another. What I am trying to do is show you, based on historical fact, which teasing situations are most likely to win and which are most likely to lose.

With that said, on to teasing underdogs.

Teasing the Underdog

As you know from my prior posts, betting on underdogs, on average, have a better chance of winning. In fact, since 2000, Underdogs have gone 51% ATS.

Here are the results of my analysis on underdogs, first just the numbers, and then graphically. The numbers are in red if the likelihood of hitting the teaser is HIGHER than that of a single ATS bet without teasing. The cell is shaded a light yellow if the % is higher than 52.37%, and is therefore profitable at standard juice:

As you can see, teasing underdogs is typically not the way to go.

There was only one occurrence of the % being higher than 52.37% on a underdog teaser, that being teasing dogs 6 points that are less than or equal to +3.

Most all the other games are well below the winning % of picking a single game ATS in that same point spread range.

As the point spreads get higher, the chances of you winning on a underdog teaser get lower.

Teasing the Favorite

Here are the results for teasing the favorite. As you can see, much better than underdogs, and in most cases, better than picking the favorite in a single game ATS.

With favs of a FG or less, every tease presented better odds than picking the individual game ATS.

The highest odds (aside from very high point spreads above 14) came when teasing the favorite by 13 points in a game where the spread is more than a FG but less than a TD.

There are certain times when teasing a favorite is beneficial, and certain times when teasing a favorite should be avoided. These are shown in the table and graph above.

Situational Teasing

The other thing this analysis did not take in to account is the element of situational teasing. Such as when the total is high or low, or the public perception of certain teams based on their record. For instance:

As you can see, in the case where the line was very high and the total was not extremely high(<45)favs were more likely to cover in all situations, especially if teasing by 10 or 13 points.

In a similar situation, with a high line, but a higher total (>45), the underdog was more likely to cover in a 6 or 13 point teaser. Notice how the 10 point teaser did not help at all in this case.

There are likely many other situational spots where I could look up teaser information, and find high odds of winning a particular teaser based on line and tease type. However, I've already taken too much time as it is, and that will have to be done another time.

Table to perform your own Odds Calculations:

Lastly, I’ll include a table which you can use to calculate your own odds. Essentially, if you want to do a calculate your odds of winning, you take the percentage from the appropriate box for the starting line you want to use, and multiply it times the percentage for the next team in the teaser. If it’s a 2 team 6 point teaser, you multiply Team 1’s % x Team 2’s %. In a 4 team 13 point teaser, you multiply all 4 teams’s % to come up w/ your odds of winning.

From this table, you should see:

If you want to take a 6 point teaser on a favorite, best chances of winning are if the spread is a FG or less, or if the spread is higher than a TD. Whereas the odds of success on a 13 point teaser on a favorite does not have as large a difference between original point spreads.

When teasing an underdog, your chances are highest when you tease a small underdog. Taking large underdogs in teasers is not as wise.

Overall summary points:

While many say teasers are sucker bets, that is not always the case.

The time to take teasers are if you want to tease favorites, particularly in a 10 or 13 point teaser.

However, in most all other cases (with a few exceptions), you have better odds of just getting individual games correct than you do of hitting a teaser.

The exceptions are certain opening lines have better odds of hitting than others. The tables above shows these situations, and show when certain teasers (6, 10 or 13 point) are more wise to play due to their odds of hitting.

Remember, just because a teaser has high odds historically has nothing to do with its ability to win on a certain future date. Smart and accurate capping should occur, and when certain games are determined to be high percentage plays, and the likelihood of hitting that teaser is high based on the historical data presented above, teasers are perfectly acceptable.

In general, more people lose teasers than those who win them. And more people lose playing teasers than when they make standard ATS plays. Essentially, teasers typically produce more money for outlets than regular plays, so remember that when jumping at a “easy teaser”

I hope this information, while difficult to explain (and I’m sure follow along), was made easier to comprehend through the use of the graphs and charts. Good luck capping this week and the rest of this season!

The truth about extremely low or extremely high totals

2007-09-05T12:32:00.000-05:00

The average total in the NFL is 41, and has been for some time. As we know, the public loves the overs. But how has the over/under fared over time?

I posted lessons on underdogs earlier, so here’s one on Totals.

The avg line is 41 for the NFL. 51% of the time, the final score is below the total. Not enough to make money betting on all unders. But are there situations when it’s more likely to be an under based on the opening line? Since setting the line is all about perception, what happens when a low line is released? How does the public react, and how do the games usually end?

For this study, I am only looking at opening lines, and I am looking at all games from the 2000-2001 season onward. I’ll start w/ the notion that the public loves an Over. And it’s true. Overs and Favorites, the public will eat them up.

See my prior work on underdogs, and you’ll see that betting dogs (smartly) will net you some cash, and betting unders (smartly) will do the same.

But here I’d like to share a sports wagering slogan you may have heard before: "Take the Under on a low total and the Over on a high total".

Think about that for a second. Wouldn't it be the opposite? Well, contrarian thinking goes a long way in sports betting.

Now, let’s crunch the numbers to see if it works out: Taking unders in games with a 41 point total or below: (Note – first note that these are opening lines, not closing. If snow was predicted and the line dropped from 40 down to 35, the O/U would show up based on the opening line of 40 in my calculation.)

As you can see, games where the opening number is avg (41) or right around there, between 39 and 41, you are already hitting over 52% (the magic number where you can break even despite the juice) if you take the unders. But once you get lower, between 35 and 38, you see more overs hitting. However, once you cross over into the very low totals of 31 and 32, you are hitting very high % on the unders. Everyone sees a 31 or 32 and would take the over, but that is not a sharp play.

Of course, if you look at the # of games that actually post totals that low, you’ll see that only 18 games in the last 7 years have had an opening total of 32 or below. That’s just over 2.5 per season. However, if you took the under on all those games, you would have won 67% of them, which is a solid, solid profit.

Now lets take the overs in games w/ a 42 point total or higher:

As you can see, from 42 points all the way up until 52 point totals, you have to pick your spots if you want an over, as more than half the time the game will go under. Which is why finding those unders may be easier than finding the overs. However, once you get to point totals that open at 53 or higher, you’re in a prime market for making some good $ by taking the overs.

Again, like w/ very low totals, you don’t see totals 53 or higher that much, just over 4.25 times per season. But take heed when you do see them…

Once again, the public sees an extreme number, and will generally go to the other side.

So the lessons here:

Opening numbers of 32 and below, don’t be scared to take the under

Opening numbers of 53 and higher, don’t be scared to take the over

In between, pick your spots. Unders hit more than overs, but don’t be scared to take either if you have done your homework.

Last but not least – don’t think that 35 and 36 are so low that it will go under, and don’t think that 50, 51, and 52 are so high that it will go over. Based on historical information, 35 and 36 point totals are more likely to go over than any total less than 52. Likewise, 51 and 52 are more likely to go under than any point total greater than 32. So don’t get carried away and think that “52 is high, take the over”.

Analysis of betting every dog on the ML

2007-02-09T15:30:00.000-05:00

I was asked to take a look at how betting on every game ML would turn out. So this is what I did:

I took every game since 91. I bet $100 on the dog ML. So if the bet lost, I lost $100. If it won, I won the ML payout. I used the following payouts for MLs (the spread is on the left, the ML on the right):

1 +107
1.5 +111
2 +115
2.5 +130
3 +145
3.5 +162.5
4 +180
4.5 +195
5 +210
5.5 +225
6 +240
6.5 +265
7 +290
7.5 +305
8 +320

and so forth.

So a $100 bet on a 5 point underdog would win you $210.

Here are the results:

You will see it's not really a good way to make money, as you would be putting up $25,600 to win about $585 on avg.

However, the interesting thing is to compare 96 and 95. In both seasons, 81 ML dogs won. However in 96 you would have lost $74 and in 95 you would have won $2,811.

The reason being in 96 the avg line that ML dogs covered was 4.2. Whereas in 95, the avg line that ML dogs covered was 5.1. So even that little change in the payout per bet amounts to a $2,900 swing...

How 2006-07 compared to Past Seasons

2007-02-08T12:24:00.000-05:00

I wanted to take a look at how this past season compared to previous seasons in terms of ATS numbers and results. The source for my data may not be the same as the source for your data (if you try to compare), as the line shifts and I don't know if you are using opening or closing lines, and what book you use.

But all my numbers are consistent w/ themselves (same source) and so the analysis should show similar results, even if you use a different source.

First I looked at the percentage at which favorites covered. Knowing the public likes taking the favorite, and knowing that you only need to hit just over 51% to win money w/ consistent betting practices (getting better juice can drop this number), I just wanted to see what years the favorites did well and what years the underdog did well.

I looked at both regular season and post season numbers.

The second thing I looked at was the number of games in which the points come into play. This is from an underdog perspective. If a favorite wins and covers, you don't have to worry about the points, you lost your bet. If an underdog wins, you don't have to worry about the points, you won your bet. The time the points come into play are those times where the favorite wins but did not cover. Then the underdog bettor won, but the points did matter.

I have heard various people claim how the points only matter in such a small % of games. So the column for "points mattered" shows the % of games where the dog lost but covered the spread (or the underdog won but failed to cover the spread).

As you can see, I only took my sample thru the 1991 season. I could have gone further back, but I felt that was a large enough sample.

At any rate, here are the numbers, and my conclusions follow:

Conclusion 1: Betting underdogs in the long run will make money.

Most bettors know this. The problem is, you aren't betting across the board, you are picking select games, so that shifts the percentages. However, looking at all 16 years, or even at the last 5, underdogs cover slightly more than favorites.

But, if you look at individual seasons, you will see how much it can shift from one season to the next. The largest shift took place this season. In 05-06, favorites covered at 58% - killing a sharp bettor and helping the public. This season, the favorites only covered 45%. That's a 13% swing!

There have been spans (from 92-97 and from 99-02) where for 4 years or more, favorites covered at less than 50%. Significantly less (47% and 46% respectively, and those numbers are significant). But the past 4 years, we have had 2 years where favorites covered more than underdogs.

This season it dropped low, to 45%. My gut feeling is we should see another season where more dogs cover, and we won't see a season like 05-06 (58% of favs covered) for quite some time.

Conclusion 2: Favorites tend to cover more in the postseason.

Of course, if you look at the last 5 years, that has not been the case. However that avg is really brought down by only 36% of the favs covering in 2003-04.

But for 11 of the 16 seasons, the fav covered more in the postseason than in each regular season. That is 69% of the seasons saw more favorites cover in the playoffs than the regular season. Another number tough to ignore. Now, by how much more did they cover?

In those 11 seasons, they covered an average of 9% more games. Which is a sizable amount.

Even if you take the average % increase using all 16 seasons (including those where the fav covered less in the postseason) you still are looking at an increase of 4%.

There was no real correlation between the regular season and the postseason.

So while this won't matter for almost another full season, remember that on average, favorites do fare better than underdogs ATS in the postseason.

Conclusion 3: The points are extremely significant.

The way I calculated how much the points mattered was:

I took the number of games won SU by the favorite and subtracted the number of games where the favorite covered the spread. So we are left with the number of games where the fav won but the underdog covered (and the points mattered). I divided that number by the total number of games played that season.

[Note: I looked at backing out those games that "pushed", but on average the "pushed" games only amounted to 0.6% of the total, so I ignored those games]

What we see is that the points matter in about 20% of all games played, and this is pretty consistent from season to season. In fact, the most it has ever mattered was 23%, and the least was 17%.

So the big overriding conclusion here is the points are huge, and don't let anyone tell you that they don't matter. Now, maybe getting into specific pointspreads, they don't matter as much.

One time the points don't really matter is if there is a home favorite of between 1 and 2.5 points. The points only mattered in 2 games out of 200, since 1995. In this situation, either take the fav and don't worry about laying the points, or take the dog SU. Because in only 1% of the games will the fav win but not cover. So if you want to look at specific situations, the points may not matter as much in those situations.

But in general, the points are a big part of gambling, and getting the most points you can get for a dog (while still having value in the juice) can affect around 20% of the number of bets you might win.

Conclusion 4: It is hard to predict how much the points will matter in the postseason.

We had 3 seasons where the points did not even matter (you could either take the fav and lay the points, or take the dog SU, there wasn't a fav who won but failed to cover).

We had almost half of the 16 seasons where the points mattered in 10% or less of the games, which is about half the amount it mattered in the regular season.

But then again, we have had those postseasons where the points mattered in 36% of the games, much higher than the amount it mattered in the regular season.

There is also no real correlation between the regular season and the postseason.

So how did 06-07 compare to the average?

We had more dogs cover in both the regular season and the postseason than average. And while the points didn't matter quite as much as average on the regular season, the points mattered a lot more in the playoffs than average.

So what to expect for next season?

At times an analysis does not really produce any incredible trends, and that is the case here. Going in, we should already know that the points matter, and we should know that dogs do better than favs on average. And that is all we really found out. The only thing I could surmise for next season is a similar number of dogs covering, as 2005-06 was really an aberration. Other than that, I'll be looking forward to another challenging year of handicapping in 2007-08.

2006 Season Recap

2007-02-07T12:28:00.000-05:00

Made some great money in the playoffs. My complete picks were posted online, I only started this blog for the Super Bowl.

My record to close out the season was 14-3 in terms of winning/losing days. And the Superbowl was my 11th straight "Primetime" matchup in a row that I won.

I'll keep updating my systems in the offseason and look forward to another successful season in 2007.

My Super Bowl Analysis

2007-01-30T18:00:00.000-05:00

After writing this, I realize it is much too long than it needs to be. However, I am a junkie and love running numbers and scenarios. Since I already typed it all up, I might as well post it. So there’s your warning.

Section 1: Background
Section 2: The Game
Section 3: Scenario 1 Stats
Section 4: Scenario 2 Stats
Section 5: Scenario 3 Stats
Section 6: Passer Rating
Section 7: Special Teams
Section 8: Red Zone
Section 9: O-Line/D-Line
Section 10: Conclusions
Section 11: My Pick

Section 1:

Background:

I have spent some quality time looking at all aspects of this game, and I will present the numbers to you as always: Unbiased and untarnished. My comparisons are the most fair that you will find, and you can read below to find out why.

To the guys who think stats don't matter in this big game, that think it is such a big game that you just have to make a "gut call", I say: Finding edges in statistical categories leads to finding strengths and weaknesses in a team. Teams do this themselves when preparing for an opponent. We can do this to find potential avenues with which to predict certain scenarios in the game. Predicting certain scenarios, certain schemes, where team A will try to attack team B, and so forth is exactly what each team is doing as we speak. Obviously stats are only a portion of capping the game. You do have to rely on your gut instincts, but sometimes they may lead you down the wrong path. You may rely on some historical data, you may rely on trends. I am not here to debate the merits of any system or method of capping. But I am defending the use of stats, whether it's the Super Bowl or a week 9 game, comparing stats is never going to be a bad thing.

Trying to get everything you need to know from NFL Live or ESPN's Sportscenter is going to lead you in the wrong direction. I feel you need to look at the numbers yourself and figure out the deeper meaning. I listen to injury reports and some info from the media, but what you should understand over at ESPN is that they have a room of "stat boys" who dig up the stats, and pass them onto the talking heads on TV. These talking heads just latch onto a few key stats and regurgitate them for 2 weeks every chance they get, to make dramatic opinions and keep you tuned in. Many times, they don't give you the complete picture, just the glamorous part or the portion that they believe will matter the most to the game.

What we really want is the complete, unbiased story, and then we can make up our own mind. That's what I try to do anyways.

The Game:

The Super Bowl is always an interesting game to cap. There are many things that play into this game that make it unique. I won't get into everything, as I am sure you are aware of many of the difficulties in attempting to predict the outcome in a game like this. But a few things include the 2 week prep time for both teams/coaches, every possession being more critical, every mistake is magnified, and the tendency for teams who are down to perhaps get more aggressive earlier than they normally would (this depends on coaching but is more likely to happen than in any other game). I realize that a few stats may be more important than others. Of course, of prime importance in any football game, let alone the Super Bowl, is who wins the turnover battle. We will get into that in a little while.

Section 2:

Not a Home Game, but Not a Road Game (background on why I ran my numbers the way I did):

Another thing is this game is played at a neutral site. There has been much debate: Is it a road game? Who is the "home team"? The answer from a gambling perspective is: Both teams are playing in a "laid-back" road environment. It is not hostile. While there are many fans from the other team, there also may be an even amount of your own fans there. It is well known that the game is a very commercial game, and many of the people there are not die hard fans from one team or another. You have your corporate people who are there to network and watch a game, and then you have neutral fans who want to see a good SB, and won't be rooting like they would be at a home game for their favorite team. And then you have your die hard fans from either the Bears or Colts, who will be making as much noise as they can. So while it won't be a home dome game for the Colts who have dead silence to work with on offense, it also won't be like walking into NE or Ten and having a stadium full of rabid fans from the other team. Same for Chi, they won't have the home support, the comforts of their cold climate and boisterous fans. So it's not a home game, but it's not really a road game in a hostile environment, such as in Min or in GB.

When capping games, lately I have been looking primarily at how teams have performed in their L3 or L4 games either home or away, depending on whether they were host or visitor. But I disagree with using only the L3 road numbers for both teams in the Super Bowl. For that reason, I have spent some time adjusting a program to give me flexibility to decide which parameters are most important.

I have my stats divided into 4 categories:

Season Home Games
Season Road Games
L3 Road Games (during the season)
Playoff Games

I am able to add any weight to the 4 categories I choose, so long as they add to 100%. So whether I want the playoff games count for 50% of the stats or 35% or any % I choose, I can.

I have chosen to look at the stats this way because how a team did in a home game in week 12 should play into their season stats, but not nearly as much as how they did at home week 1, or how they did in the playoffs.

Important

Also, the way that I like to cap games is not to just look at PPG scored for the home team and compare it to PPG scored for the road team. To me, that is pretty meaningless. The missing piece to that puzzle is who their opponents have been. If the Colts are putting up 20 PPG on the Pats, Ravens and Jags, 3 top teams in PPG allowed, while the Bears are putting up 30 PPG on the Lions, Titans and Cardinals 3 of the worst teams in PPG allowed, you can't compare the 20 to the 30.

You need to compare Indy's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Indy's opposition. Once you have that number, you can compare it to Chicago's PPG scored w/ avg PPG allowed by Chicago's opposition.

I have seen many "Super Bowl systems" that rank several statistical categories of the Colts and Bears, such as PPG, total yards allowed, rushing YPR, and others, and then say that the Bears will win the game because they have higher scores in 7 of the 10 categories compared to the Bears. To me, that is fine, but not ideal. As I said, if their opposition was different, you are no longer comparing apples to apples. To do this, you can't even just compare the overall "Strength of Schedule" of their opposition, you have to compare PPG allowed (for instance) on average for the Colts opposition, and then see how many PPG the Colts scored against them on average, to see if the Colts performed average, above average, or below average in PPG. And then you have to do the same w/ the Bears, and then you can finally compare the two teams to see how the performed in PPG vs. their opposition.

I know I am discussing stats in this thread. That is what I like to do. I also know that there are many who say "throw stats out the window for the Super Bowl, Colts roll". Or "Bears cover - no brainer". That is fine if you want to use your gambling judgment. Stats only play a part of my overall capping. But I feel they should be used and studied to determine if an obvious or subtle advantage is found. So while I use my gambling judgment as well when making my final play, I also like to look at what the stats are showing.

Now that I have introduced the background on how and why I do my calculations, I will begin to show you what I have come up with. As I said, I can determine what part of the season I want to weigh most in my calculations. So I am using several combinations. If you would like to see one that is not listed, feel free to post and ask me to show it. Just make sure it adds up to 100% or it would not make sense. Here are the 3 I am going with right now:

Scenario 1 (a 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late)

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 30% (of which 15 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 50%

Scenario 2 (Not as much emphasis on the playoffs, but still over double that of a regular season game. More of a focus on road games over the season)

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 45% (of which 17 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 35%

Scenario 3 (Extremely playoff heavy, and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly road games)

Season Home Games: 5%
Season Road Games: 10% (of which 5% is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 85%

Section 3:

A look into Scenario 1

A 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 30% (of which 15 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 50%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

(Also, these numbers are obviously percentages of stats from multiple games, so I rounded to the nearest decimal. Which is why you may see the Colts have an advantage by 0 yards. But the yardage really is 0.04 yards, and it rounds to 0. So that is essentially no advantage, but just explaining why it may show up.)

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 30 vs. Opp Avg 21.1, Indianapolis Colts: 25.1 vs. Opp Avg 18.3
Advantage: Bears by 2.1

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.6 vs. Opp Avg 17.7, Indianapolis Colts: 23.9 vs. Opp Avg 17.7
Advantage: Colts by 4.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 34.5 vs. Opp Avg 36.8, Indianapolis Colts: 52.3 vs. Opp Avg 36.8
Advantage: Colts by 17.9

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.5, Indianapolis Colts: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.5

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 52.2 vs. Opp Avg 59.2, Indianapolis Colts: 63.8 vs. Opp Avg 59.4
Advantage: Colts by 11.4

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.2 vs. Opp Avg 11.7, Indianapolis Colts: 11.2 vs. Opp Avg 11.5
Advantage: Bears by 0.8

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.9 vs. Opp Avg 0.9, Indianapolis Colts: 1.3 vs. Opp Avg 1.2
Advantage: Bears by 0.2

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 12.2 vs. Opp Avg 16.1, Indianapolis Colts: 7.7 vs. Opp Avg 15.6
Advantage: Colts by 4

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 39.7 vs. Opp Avg 51.1, Indianapolis Colts: 37.9 vs. Opp Avg 48
Advantage: Bears by 1.4

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 33.2 vs. Opp Avg 29.7, Indianapolis Colts: 31.6 vs. Opp Avg 29.6
Advantage: Bears by 1.5

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 6 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards
Bears: 5 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 18.4 vs. Opp Avg 21.7, Indianapolis Colts: 20.2 vs. Opp Avg 21.4
Advantage: Bears by 2.1

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 17.1 vs. Opp Avg 19.2, Indianapolis Colts: 16.4 vs. Opp Avg 18.6
Advantage: Colts by 0

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 33.1 vs. Opp Avg 38.4, Indianapolis Colts: 34.6 vs. Opp Avg 39.3
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 3.9, Indianapolis Colts: 5 vs. Opp Avg 4.1
Advantage: Bears by 0.7

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 56.6 vs. Opp Avg 59.2, Indianapolis Colts: 62.2 vs. Opp Avg 61
Advantage: Bears by 3.8

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 10.8 vs. Opp Avg 11.6, Indianapolis Colts: 9.4 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 1

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1.1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.4 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.7 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 21.2 vs. Opp Avg 15.5, Indianapolis Colts: 11.2 vs. Opp Avg 12.1
Advantage: Bears by 6.5

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 52.3 vs. Opp Avg 46.8, Indianapolis Colts: 38.1 vs. Opp Avg 49.6
Advantage: Colts by 17

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 28.3 vs. Opp Avg 30.4, Indianapolis Colts: 28.4 vs. Opp Avg 30.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 5 - First Downs/Game, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)
Bears: 6 - PPG Allowed, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards

Section 4:

A look into Scenario 2

Not as much emphasis on the playoffs as scenario 1, but still over double that of a regular season game. More of a focus on road games over the season

Season Home Games: 20%
Season Road Games: 45% (of which 17 % is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 35%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 28.8 vs. Opp Avg 21.2, Indianapolis Colts: 24.7 vs. Opp Avg 19
Advantage: Bears by 1.8

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.4 vs. Opp Avg 18, Indianapolis Colts: 23.5 vs. Opp Avg 18
Advantage: Colts by 4.1

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 35.6 vs. Opp Avg 37.4, Indianapolis Colts: 54 vs. Opp Avg 37.6
Advantage: Colts by 18.2

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.4, Indianapolis Colts: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.3

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 52.7 vs. Opp Avg 59.5, Indianapolis Colts: 63.9 vs. Opp Avg 59.7
Advantage: Colts by 11

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.1 vs. Opp Avg 11.7, Indianapolis Colts: 11.6 vs. Opp Avg 11.4
Advantage: Bears by 0.3

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1 vs. Opp Avg 0.9, Indianapolis Colts: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1.1
Advantage: Colts by 0

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.3 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 11 vs. Opp Avg 15.7, Indianapolis Colts: 7.2 vs. Opp Avg 14.7
Advantage: Colts by 2.8

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 45 vs. Opp Avg 51.3, Indianapolis Colts: 40.7 vs. Opp Avg 48.8
Advantage: Colts by 1.8

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 32.4 vs. Opp Avg 29.8, Indianapolis Colts: 30.7 vs. Opp Avg 29.8
Advantage: Bears by 1.7

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 8 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Interceptions/Game, Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards, Penalty Yards
Bears: 3 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 17.9 vs. Opp Avg 21.3, Indianapolis Colts: 21.9 vs. Opp Avg 21.3
Advantage: Bears by 3.9

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 17.3 vs. Opp Avg 19.1, Indianapolis Colts: 18 vs. Opp Avg 18.4
Advantage: Bears by 1.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 32.2 vs. Opp Avg 38, Indianapolis Colts: 39 vs. Opp Avg 38.9
Advantage: Bears by 5.9

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 3.9, Indianapolis Colts: 5.2 vs. Opp Avg 4.2
Advantage: Bears by 1

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 57.3 vs. Opp Avg 59, Indianapolis Colts: 62.8 vs. Opp Avg 60.7
Advantage: Bears by 3.8

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 10.7 vs. Opp Avg 11.4, Indianapolis Colts: 9.8 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 0.6

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.2 vs. Opp Avg 0.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.4 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 0.7 vs. Opp Avg 0.7
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 19.5 vs. Opp Avg 15.9, Indianapolis Colts: 9.7 vs. Opp Avg 12.3
Advantage: Bears by 6.2

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 59 vs. Opp Avg 48.8, Indianapolis Colts: 38.8 vs. Opp Avg 49.3
Advantage: Colts by 20.8

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 28.8 vs. Opp Avg 30.4, Indianapolis Colts: 29.3 vs. Opp Avg 30.5
Advantage: Bears by 0.4

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 3 - YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards
Bears: 8 - PPG Allowed, First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards, Time of Possession (min)

Section 5:

A look into Scenario 3

Extremely playoff heavy, and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly home games

Season Home Games: 5%
Season Road Games: 10% (of which 5% is L3 Road)
Playoffs: 85%

Remember, each team's production is listed and then compared to their opposition average. For offensive categories, the opposition average "allowed" is shown. Therefore, for most offensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed better than the opponent average - it shows you are performing better than average on offense.

For defensive categories, the opposition average "gained" is shown. Therefore, for most defensive categories (except turnovers, sacks and penalties), it is better to have performed lower than the opponent average (holding them to fewer PPG, ypr, ypc...) - it shows you are performing better than average on defense.

Offensive Categories

PPG Scored: Chicago Bears: 32.1 vs. Opp Avg 20.8, Indianapolis Colts: 25.2 vs. Opp Avg 16.5
Advantage: Bears by 2.5

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 19.5 vs. Opp Avg 17.1, Indianapolis Colts: 24.6 vs. Opp Avg 17
Advantage: Colts by 5.2

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 31.8 vs. Opp Avg 35.5, Indianapolis Colts: 49.2 vs. Opp Avg 34.8
Advantage: Colts by 18.2

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4 vs. Opp Avg 4.7, Indianapolis Colts: 3.9 vs. Opp Avg 3.9
Advantage: Colts by 0.8

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 50.6 vs. Opp Avg 58.4, Indianapolis Colts: 63.2 vs. Opp Avg 58.4
Advantage: Colts by 12.5

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 12.3 vs. Opp Avg 11.8, Indianapolis Colts: 10.4 vs. Opp Avg 11.6
Advantage: Bears by 1.7

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8, Indianapolis Colts: 1.8 vs. Opp Avg 1.3
Advantage: Bears by 0.7

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 0.5 vs. Opp Avg 0.7, Indianapolis Colts: 0.1 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Colts by 0.5

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 14.5 vs. Opp Avg 17, Indianapolis Colts: 10 vs. Opp Avg 17.6
Advantage: Colts by 5.1

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 27.6 vs. Opp Avg 50.9, Indianapolis Colts: 32.7 vs. Opp Avg 46.6
Advantage: Bears by 9.4

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 34.7 vs. Opp Avg 29.3, Indianapolis Colts: 33.2 vs. Opp Avg 28.9
Advantage: Bears by 1.1

Offensive Conclusion

Colts: 6 - First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards
Bears: 5 - PPG Scored, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min)

Defensive Categories

PPG Allowed: Chicago Bears: 18.8 vs. Opp Avg 22.9, Indianapolis Colts: 17.4 vs. Opp Avg 22
Advantage: Colts by 0.6

First Downs/Game: Chicago Bears: 16.7 vs. Opp Avg 19.8, Indianapolis Colts: 13.6 vs. Opp Avg 19
Advantage: Colts by 2.3

3rd Down (%): Chicago Bears: 35 vs. Opp Avg 40, Indianapolis Colts: 26.1 vs. Opp Avg 40.8
Advantage: Colts by 9.8

YPRush: Chicago Bears: 4.2 vs. Opp Avg 3.8, Indianapolis Colts: 4.1 vs. Opp Avg 4
Advantage: Colts by 0.2

Pass Comp (%): Chicago Bears: 55.5 vs. Opp Avg 60.4, Indianapolis Colts: 61.3 vs. Opp Avg 61.7
Advantage: Bears by 4.6

YPCatch: Chicago Bears: 11 vs. Opp Avg 11.9, Indianapolis Colts: 9 vs. Opp Avg 11.2
Advantage: Colts by 1.3

Interceptions/Game: Chicago Bears: 1 vs. Opp Avg 1.1, Indianapolis Colts: 1.6 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Colts by 0.8

Fumbles/Game: Chicago Bears: 1.5 vs. Opp Avg 0.7, Indianapolis Colts: 0.9 vs. Opp Avg 0.8
Advantage: Bears by 0.6

Sack Yards: Chicago Bears: 24.2 vs. Opp Avg 14.2, Indianapolis Colts: 13.3 vs. Opp Avg 11.4
Advantage: Bears by 8.1

Penalty Yards: Chicago Bears: 38 vs. Opp Avg 42.5, Indianapolis Colts: 38.3 vs. Opp Avg 49.8
Advantage: Colts by 7

Time of Possession (min): Chicago Bears: 27.5 vs. Opp Avg 30.7, Indianapolis Colts: 26.7 vs. Opp Avg 31.4
Advantage: Colts by 1.3

Defensive Conclusion

Colts: 8 - PPG Allowed, First Downs/Game, 3rd Down (%), YPRush, YPCatch, Interceptions/Game, Penalty Yards, Time of Possession (min),
Bears: 3 - Pass Comp (%), Fumbles/Game, Sack Yards,

Section 6:

Passer Ratings (Playoffs & Reg Season)

Another key to Super Bowl performance is the play of your QB. It is usually essential to have an average if not solid performance from your QB to win this game. Peyton this season has been pretty remarkable.

To those who don't appreciate QB rating, it really is more of a useful tool than you may think. Using 5 inputs (attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Ints) it calculates Comp %, Yards/Attempt, TD% and Int%, and then weights them and combines them into one easy to use and compare number. Most everything you would want to know about the guy in one stat.

And the reason it is so important I will present to you here:

I was hoping to find this gathered somewhere online already. As I couldn't find it, I ran all the calculations myself, so here it is:

Of the 40 Super Bowl winners, 38 of winning teams had a higher QB rating in the Super Bowl than their opponent's QB rating! That is 95%. The only exceptions were actually last year, and in 1998.

QB performance (rating) is huge in the SB, and has an extreme correlation to SB success. So the question is, which QB do you think will have a better rating in the SB? Well, past success does not guarantee future success, but here are the numbers from the regular season.

Manning

When the Colts are losing, his rating of 106.4 is higher than when they are tied or when they have the lead.
In the 2nd half, his rating of 102.7 is higher than his 1st half rating.
On third down, his rating of 119.1 is better than on first or second down.
And his best rating of all is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 148.5.

Grossman on the other hand:

When the Bears are losing, his rating of 49.6 is much lower than when they are tied, or when they have the lead (102.9)
In the 2nd half, his rating of 67.2 is lower than his 1st half rating.
On 3rd down, his rating of 66.4 is lower than on first or second down.
And his WORST situational rating is on 3rd and long (3rd and 8-10 yds), when his rating is 47.3.

So lets look at how these guys did away from home:

Petyon vs. Rex

On the road: 93 vs. 67
On grass: 100.2 vs. 73.2
Peyton against NFC vs. Rex against AFC: 93.9 vs. 55.0
In wins: 106.7 vs. 86.8
In losses: 84.3 vs. 19.3

So what can we conclude about regular season performance? Well, the Rex was good when he was at home, when his team had the lead, and he was in manageable down & distances. Whether it's when his team is losing, when it is 3rd down, or when it is in the 2nd half, Rex just wasn't that good.

Peyton on the other hand, was incredible on 3rd downs, when his team was losing, or in the 2nd half. All this talk about the Colts on grass - Peyton had a 100 rating on grass, and even in losses, his rating still was an 84.

Now, moving onto the playoffs:

Peyton's 3 games: 71.9 vs KC, 39.6 @ Bal, 79.1 vs NE
Rex's 2 games: 76.9 vs. Sea, 73.2 vs NO

It is hard to really compare these to one another. For instance, the 39.6 jumps out at you for Peyton. We know that was a defensive, turnover filled FG battle, it isn't really surprising his numbers were bad. Even less so when you see that Baltimore was #1 in the league at opposing QB rating. The Best. Guess who was #2? That's right, New England. Peyton faced 2 of the toughest teams for QBs to face, and he faced them the last 2 weeks of the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, he now has to face Chicago, which is #3....

Rex on the other hand has been able to skate bye these past 2 games. First was Seattle with their 26th ranked D against QBs, then NO at #23. Indy isn't top 10, but they are #15, tougher than Rex has faced since (if we throw out GB, who was #8) Min on Dec 3rd, who was #5. Rex had a rating of 1.3, but Chi still won.

While Indy is #15, allowing a rating of 80.4 on the year, during the playoffs they forced Trent Green (74.1 during the season) to a 48.4, Steve McNair (82.4 during the season) to a 49.9, and Tom Brady (87.9 during the season) to a 79.5. So Indy has been stepping up a bit on not only run D but defending QBs during this postseason.

Now as you know, QB rating is not an indicator of Ws or Ls. I am not making a case that it is. I am stating that QB play is usually important in the Super Bowl, and showing you the numbers.

But strictly looking at the QB and his rating, it is impossible to discount the solid performance of Peyton this year, when it matters most, just as it is obvious that Rex, when it matters most, has come up short.

Section 7:

Special teams

We all know special teams have the impact to change the game in a single snap. And we know Chi has been great, but just how great have they been, and how bad has Indy been?

Is the spoon feeding ESPN has been giving us about the great Bears return game the truth, or a myth? And if true, how could it impact the game?

Chicago's Return O vs. Indy's return D

On the season, Chi ranked #1 in return TDs, #2 in punt return average, and #8 in kickoff return average.

Indy's ST D ranked #31 in return TDs allowed, #31 in punt return avg allowed, and #30 in kickoff return average allowed.

Those numbers are diametrically opposed, and extremely eye-opening.

Just for fun, let's see the flip side: Indy's return O against Chicago's return D

With only 1 return TD on the year, Indy ranked 13th in punt return average and #7 in kickoff return average (actually ahead of Chicago).

Chicago's ST ranked #23 in punt return average and #5 in kickoff return average allowed.

So if we matchup their numbers, Chi would have an advantage in both Kickoff return D and both Kickoff return O and punt return O. The only advantage for Indy would be in punt return O, where Chi allows more than Indy gains. This advantage for Chi is more lopsided than just these numbers, because when you look at the comparison, Chi is already #2 in punt return O, and Indy allows even more yards per punt return than Chi gains on average. Same thing with kickoff returns.

Now how have the regular season numbers translated into the playoffs?

The results are not good, but they are not good for both teams:

Indy has allowed 12.8 yards per punt return, which is just a hair better than the 13.1 in the regular season, but is far and away the worst of any team in the playoffs.

However Chicago has only averaged 5.8 yards per punt return, which is 3rd worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs, and well below the 12.1 ypr they averaged during the season.

Meanwhile, Indy has allowed 24.3 yards per kickoff return, which is 4th worst in the playoffs but is slightly better than what they averaged during the season.

Chicago is dead last in kickoff returns, only averaging 16 yards per return, which is well below the 23.3 they averaged on the season.

So when Indy is kicking:

They are doing slightly better than they did on the regular season, but still not great by any means. Chicago, on the other hand, is performing much, much worse than they did during the regular season in returning kicks.

I am looking at average numbers here, so the # of opportunities does not matter. Some have suggested Indy will kick away from Hester. Perhaps. Let's see what Seattle and NO did:

During the season, Chicago averaged just over 3.1 punt returns per game, and 3.7 kickoff returns per game.

Against Seattle they had 3 punt returns and 4 kickoff returns, and against NO they had 2 punt returns and 3 kickoff returns. So about average in the Seattle game, and less than average in the NO game.

I don't know if Indy will kick away from Hester or not. But he hasn't broken one yet, but then again, Seattle and NO have better return D than Indy.

Switch the fields, and now Chicago is kicking in the playoffs:

Chicago is allowing 22.9 yards per kickoff return, worse than the 20.8 they allowed during the regular season. But Chicago is allowing a mere 2.4 yards per punt return, much better than during the season.

Indy has returned their kickoffs for an avg of 19.1 yards, much worse than the 23.6 they did on the season, and returning punts for 11.2 yards, which actually is better than the 9 yards they averaged on the season.

So when Chicago is kicking:

Chicago has been poor on kickoffs, as has Indy. But on punts, Chi has been great, and so has Indy.

What does all of this ST discussion mean:

1. Chicago is explosive in their offensive return game, one of the best, and Indy's return D is terrible. However, on the playoffs, Indy’s return D has played a bit better and Chi’s return O really hasn't been doing that well in their return game. Some may have to do w/ facing the #6 and #17 ranked teams in punt returns.

2. Indy’s return O is above average in their return game, and Chicago is about average. Both Indy's return O and Chicago's return D have been doing better at punt returns than kickoff returns, so no distinct edge here.

3. If Indy can use some of the 2 weeks to improve the special teams, it will significantly improve their chances of winning.

Starting Field Position

The key to this return game, if TDs are not scored, is average starting field position. That is what the kicking game provides (FGs aside).

The Bears, out of 191 drives, started on average at their 32.2 yard line. That is good for #5 in the NFL. The Colts ST defense allowed the other team to start on its own 30.8 yard line, which is #23 in the NFL. So you have one really above average O (Chi) against a slightly below avg D (Ind).

The Colts, out of 148 drives, started on average at their own 28.7 yard line. That is #27 in the NFL. The Bears ST defense allowed the other team to start on its own 29.4 yard line, which is #11 in the NFL. So you have a really below average O (Ind) against a slightly above avg D (Chi).

While you may not think a 3 yard advantage is much of an advantage, remember - that is just the AVERAGE. They key when comparing one team to the other for this statistic is to realize the Bears are great at getting their offense quality starting field position, and the Colts are bad at allowing good starting field position, and are bad at getting their own offense quality starting field position.

So while return numbers are good, starting field position is even better at determining an advantage. It is clear the Bears have a very good advantage here, and the myths that the Bears return game is great is not only true, it has resulted in significant starting field position advantage.

Section 8

Red Zone

The red zone undoubtedly will play a key role in this Super Bowl, as it does in most Super Bowls. Let's look at both regular season and postseason numbers:

Regular Season: Indy O vs. Chi D

Indy was #2 in the league, converting 92% of red zone drives into points, 66% of which were TDs.

Chicago was #9 on defense, allowing 80% of red zone drives to be converted into points, 48% of which were TDs.

Regular Season: Chi O vs. Indy D

Chicago was #18 on offense, converting 84% of red zone drives into points, 48% of which were TDs.

Indy was #31 on defense, allowing 82% of red zone drives into points, 59% of which were TDs.

What do the regular season numbers tell us?

So as good as Indy was on offense, they were as bad on defense. Meanwhile, Chi was above avg on defense and just below average on offense.

In the Postseason

Postseason: Indy O vs. Chi D

Indy was #7 out of 12 playoff teams, converting 92% of red zone drives into points, but only 50% of which were TDs. However, Indy did face the #1 and #2 regular season red zone defenses (Balt and NE) in the playoffs.

Chi was dead last of the 12 playoff teams, allowing all 4 red zone drives to be converted not just into points, but into TDs. That's 100% for points and 100% for TDs. And they didn't face a top 10 red zone offense - the #11 and #14 ranked regular season red zone offenses.

Postseason: Chi O vs. Indy D

Chi was #3 out of 12 teams, converting 88% of red zone drives into points, 63% of which were TDs. However, they faced the #28 and #22 red zone defenses.

Indy was #9 out of 12 teams, allowing 71% of red zone drives to be converted into points, 57% of which were TDs. However they did face the #3 and #5 (KC and NE) ranked red zone offenses on the regular season.

What do the postseason numbers tell us?

Indy has faced much stiffer red zone competition, two top 5 teams in both defense and offense, and still performed well. They converted 92% of offensive opportunities, same as the regular season, and allowed fewer red zone drives to be converted into points on defense - 71%, which is actually better than Chi did on the regular season.

Chicago has faced mediocre competition, and has not impressed. They converted slightly more red zone possessions into points as they did on the regular season, and although they converted a larger % into TDs, they faced some very weak red zone defenses. On defense, they have been terrible in the playoffs, allowing all 4 drives to score TDs, and not facing a red zone offense nearly as good as Indys.

The advantage here must go to the Colts. If this was the first playoff game, you would lean towards the Bears, but after seeing how Indy has performed against some of the leagues finest in red zone offense/defense, and how poorly Chi has performed against the opposite, the Colts clearly deserve this check.

Section 9

A look at the lines:

First, Indy's O-Line vs. Chicago's D-Line

There has been a lot of talk about how Chicago D-Line was hurt by losing Tommie Harris. We know on the season they are holding opponents to 4 ypr. You can see above how my stats break out for ypr based on portions of the season. I can tell you that at home, surprisingly, they allowed 4.3 ypr to teams who usually gain only 4.0 ypr. They did worse than avg. But on the road, they held teams to 3.7 ypr who averaged 3.9 on the season. And their L3 on the road, they clamped up even more, allowing only 3.4 to teams who averaged 4.0. In the playoffs, though, they allowed Seattle and NO, teams who averaged 3.8 ypr on the year, to run for 4.3 ypr. So while they clamped up during the regular season, they have struggled so far in the playoffs.

Let's look at how Chi's run D ranks by position - the numbers are the ypr allowed, followed by rank (these positions are not exact, just to show approximate location):

LE: 4.09, 16th
LT: 3.53, 7th
MID: 3.99 5th
RT: 4.18 17th
RE: 3.08 6th

As you can see, they are very stout in the middle, ranking 5th in the league at runs up the middle. They are also good at defending runs to their far right (offense's left). Their have weaknesses on their left side and right tackle. So up the middle is tough going.

So it is no surprise that they ranked #2 in the league at runs stuffed. Meaning runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain, or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. (Imagine how good they would be w/ Tommie Harris...) But they ranked #28th in the league in runs of 10+ yards. So like I said, up the middle and you get stuffed, away from the middle and you may have more success.

Other teams were aware of this as well, because on the season, they rushed only 42% of the time up the middle on Chi, which is 7% less than the league average. They rushed above the league average on Chicago's RT and LT.

Now, let's start looking at real game stats: Chicago's 3 best performances against the run came against AZ (1.7 ypr), NE (2.5 ypr) and TB (3.0 ypr). So let's take a look at how those teams tendencies on the season, and where they are successful in running behind their O-Lines.

AZ is terrible at running the ball (tell me something we don't know) and run to their left an avg of #22 in the league, and to their right an avg of 28th in the league.
NE likes to run either up the middle, or to their LE. This plays right into Chi's hands, as Chi is best up the middle and on their RE. NE's combined rank is 12th to their left and 28th to their right.
TB is well below average running to their left. Their avg rank to the left is 26th and to the right is 17th. Not much better.

So it's not really surprising that Chi held these teams to few YPR.

Let's examine Chicago's 3 worst performances against the run.

SF (7.2 ypr) - SF is great running to their LE, avg 6 ypr and #2 in the league, and is well above avg #12 at running to their RE. So they can get run to both edges w/ success.
NYG (6.8 ypr) - They are great at running to the outside. They rank #3 to their LE, #4 to their RT and #2 to their RE.
MIN (5.5 ypr) - They are also top 5 at running to the outside - ranking #5 in runs behind both their RE and RT. They also are top 10 in runs behind their LT.

So as you can see, teams that had success against Chi were able to run outside w/ success, not necessarily all the way outside, but let's say not up the middle.

Well how did Indy do on the year?

They were #1 in the league in runs behind their LT, and top 10 in runs behind both their LE and RT. And not only that, they were #5 in runs up the center. Their runs up the center was better than SF, NYG or MIN up the center.

So as long as Indy does not focus on trying to jam the ball up the middle, and uses runs off the middle (which they are successful at doing), they could have moderate to good success running the ball.

I know ESPN will tell you that Indy won't be able to run the ball on Chi, but we will see what happens. I am not predicting monster numbers from either back. But success would be gaining just enough yardage to keep the D honest, to allow things to open up for Peyton, and to provide some long runs when the D is expecting pass. I think if the Colts develop a good gameplan in this regard, they will come out on top.

Bears O-Line vs the Colts D-Line

We know the Colts have been run on during the regular season. We know that during the regular season they averaged 5.3 ypr against. Tell that to them now. In the playoffs so far they have held opponents who gain 3.9 ypr on average to only 3.6 ypr. Very impressive indeed. Remember, in the playoffs, the Bears allowed teams who averaged 3.8 ypr on the year, to run for 4.3 ypr. So the Colts really stepped up, which can't be said for the Bears.

Back to the Colts, they were #32 in power success, which is defined as Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.

They were #30 in runs of 10+ yards.

Here are their numbers during the regular season by position (ypr followed by rank):

LE: 1.86 1st
LT: 4.94 26th
MID: 4.99 32nd
RT: 5.71 32nd
RE: 3.24 8th

Surprisingly good on either end, but only because their opponents just run straight up the gut on them. In fact, of the runs against Indy this season, 61% went right up the middle. The league avg is 49% up the middle. (Interestingly enough, the only team that had a higher % of runs straight up the middle was NE, w/ a whopping 68%).

So they are bad up the middle, and opponents know it and have tried to take advantage of it.

I won't break down their opponents, because there were 6 games on the year they allowed 6 or more ypr. Absolutely terrible. But I will say that those teams who were able to do well against Indy, could run the ball up the middle:

NYG - #12 up the middle, #4 to their RT
PHI - #3 up the middle
JAC - #4 up the middle, #3 to their LT
DEN - $6 up the middle, #7 to their RT
the only exception would be:
TEN - which was only #23 up the middle and #16 to their RT. Part of this one has to do w/ Vince Young - ran 9 times for 78 yards in one game, and 4 times for 43 yards and Ten's only TD in the other game.

So, let's guess what the Bears are good at?

How about ranking #1 at running up the middle, and #8 to their LT.

Now remember, Indy on O is #1 behind their LT and #5 up the middle, so collectively better than the Bears. But the point is, the Bears have a better run D than the Colts do, at least during the regular season.

The real key will be, does Indy continue to surprisingly excel in the run D dept like they did their first 3 playoff games?

Because remember, their opponents in the playoffs:

KC - #8 up the middle
Bal - #20 up the middle, #9 to their LT
NE - #9 up the middle

They had well above avg running attacks up the middle (save for Bal), but Indy still held them to below their avg rushing yards, and won all 3 games.

And those regular season games, when they allowed over 6 ypr to those other teams I listed above, Indy's record in those games was 5-2. So just because Chi may have the power to run on Indy, it does not equate to a win necessarily. So don't be surprised to see Chi time and time again try to pound the ball up the middle.

Section 10

Conclusions:

My favorite scenario is scenario 1, which is a 50/50 split between playoffs and regular season, w/ a slight lean towards road games, especially of late. Overall, these numbers show a VERY EVEN game. Indy holds a 6-5 advantage in offensive stats, and Chi holds a 6-5 advantage in defensive stats. And w/ those numbers, there are several key battles.

First of course is the turnover battle. Chicago has been thriving by taking 1.4 fumbles per game whereas opponents averaged only 0.8 on the regular season. But Indy has only fumbled 0.3 times per game, less than the 0.7 their opponents usually force. Indy has thrown 1.3 ints per game and Chi only 0.9, but both are about what their opponents average for interceptions. Indy actually has a slight bit more interceptions on D than Chicago, and the number looks larger when you factor that Indy’s opponents don’t throw as many ints as Chi’s opponents. So this turnover battle will be key. If Chi can force Indy to fumble or create a couple Ints, Chi really has an advantage. On the other hand, if Indy takes care of the ball, it really will hurt Chi because they are used to generating these turnovers.

Second is 3rd down conversions. Chi only averaged 35% while Indy was at 52% Indy was well above opponent avg. Both teams on D hold their opponents below their usual average, and both Ds are right around 34% in preventing 3rd down conversions. So the numbers here don’t bode well for Chi on offense, but the real battle will be Indy’s O vs Chi’s D. If Indy can convert about 50% of their 3rd downs, they will severely strain Chi, as Chi is used to holding teams to much lower % and getting their offense back on the field.

Then you have the running game, and while both teams are averaging 4 ypr, Chi’s opponents are giving up 4.5, so Chi has been below avg in their run game. But we all know Indy has struggled in theirs, and even w/ factoring playoff numbers in for 50% of the total, Indy is giving up 5 ypr, almost 1 more than opponent avg. If Indy can continue their dominant form from the last 3 games, they have a good shot at holding Chi to around 4 ypr and that would really benefit Indy. If Chi is able to get closer to 5 ypr, they have really helped themselves.

Scenario 2: If you want to look at a scenario where there is not as much emphasis on the playoffs as scenario 1, but still over double that of a regular season game (more of a focus on road games over the season), then we find that the Colts have an 8-3 advantage on offense, while the Bears have the 8-3 advantage on defense. So much more uneven on both sides of the ball, but the numbers balance out somewhat, and you can determine whether you prefer the stronger offense or the stronger defense.

Scenario 3: If you are a fan of “what have you done for me lately”, and want to look at a scenario which is extremely playoff heavy (85%), and only slight amounts of regular season performance, particularly home games: The Colts have that same narrow advantage on offense, 6-5, but actually have a solid 8-3 advantage on defense. Taking regular season more heavily you had that same 8-3 advantage for the Bears. So if the Colts step up as they have the past 3 games, and the Bears play in line w/ their last couple of playoff games, we could see a good game on offense but one where the Colts D steps up when it counts and tames the Bears offense.

So those are the primary angles I see w/ regard to the numbers generated in the scenarios.

Looking more at the other analyses:

Passer ratings – no question passer rating has mattered in the Super Bowl, the true question is which QB has the better game. I have more confidence in Manning, particularly after seeing his performance in the regular season. However, both QBs are somewhat prone to getting nervous, tight, and making bad decisions, Manning in big moments, and Rex when his team is down or struggling. While all the talk has been about Chi’s D scheming to stop Manning, and Rex just folding in the big game, we haven’t heard as much talk about what Indy’s D will do w/ Dungy to stop Chi’s run game. While that doesn’t have anything to do w/ passer rating, it will play a part in the confidence of each QB. I give the nod to Peyton and the Colts in this one, w/ the potential for it to be even if Peyton chokes, and the potential for it to be a landslide if Rex gets down and pressured, and starts making bad decisions.

Special teams – Chi has been great this year, no doubt, and Indy has been average, or below average. I am not talking about FGs here, I am talking return games, on O and D. Chi has struggled a bit in the playoffs, and if they continue that struggle, their biggest hope to aid their offense: Field Position, their dreams will go down the drain. If Chi can force Indy to drop into the 30s w/ 3rd down completion %, and get their return game going, I can see Chi going a long way towards a close game, and even a win. Chi MUST get the same great field position (#5 on the year) they did during the regular season. I definitely will not give this category to the Colts. It may not be as lopsided as some will think, due to Chi’s recent struggles. Couple that w/ the fact that Chi needs field position to have a chance in this one, the pressure is really on. I give a slight lean to Chi, mainly because if they have an avg day, it won’t be enough for the W. They need a great day. Adv Chi, but it is essential.

Red Zone – Chi has struggled in the playoffs, allowing 100% redzone possessions to be turned into 7 points. It doesn’t get easier facing the #2 team in the league. Indy has played tougher opposition recently in red zone O and D than has Chi, and has performed well. The advantage here goes to the Colts.

O-Lines/D-Lines – Chi can be run on and beat, and Indy seems to have a run game that has enjoyed decent success at running towards Chi’s weaknesses. However, a more decided advantage lies for Chi in running up the middle of Indy’s run D. I know nothing of the gameplans of either OC, but I will tell you that if you see Indy running up the middle to much, they are in for trouble. Indy backers better hope they run away from the middle, and Bears backers must hope they pound the middle of Indy’s D-Line. The problem in determining a true advantage here is that Indy has stepped up so significantly here. And this comparison is not just the ypr success, as I have discussed that earlier. It is which team can be run on best by the other team. I have to give a slight nod to the Bears, but believe me, it is not as lopsided as those pundits on ESPN want you to think. It depends on how Indy attacks Chi’s line, but so long as Indy is not getting stuffed constantly, they will keep the D honest, open up the pass game even more, and generate some surprising long gainers on runs of 10+ yards. Again, nod to the Bears but not landslide victory.

Section 11

My Pick

I have tried to bring the above analysis as unbiased as possible. I will tell you that the following bets will be slightly biased, as I already have a sizeable amount on Indy ML for +150.

I do think Indy wins this game. I think there is a good chance it will be a close game, and there are several keys to deciding the outcome. I am a value bettor, and I do see some value in the Bears +7.5, so long as certain things go their way. Can they win? Absolutely. Do they need to hold the Colts on 3rd down, generate a key turnover or two, and provide quality starting field position to do so? Definitely.

It is for this reason that I will add a play on Bears +7.5 and hope they step up to the table. I’d love a 3, 4 or 7 point win for the Colts obviously. But if everything goes right for the Bears and they will get the win, and I don’t want to be out everything I put on the Colts.

So I’ll take about 70% of the play I made on Colts ML and throw it onto the Bears +7.5. Right now +7.5 is -130 at Pinny, which I don’t like. Shop elsewhere, or wait until more Colts money comes in closer to gametime.

There is a chance to put in about 10% of my Colts ML bet and put it on Bears ML +220 or more. If I did that, the 3 scenarios would be:

Colts Win and Cover = 70% profit of Colts bet
Colts Win/Bears Cover = 201% profit of Colts bet
Bears Win = -17% loss of Colts bet

Which would equate to an average of 85% profit of my Indy ML over the 3 plays.

If I didn’t go for the middle (& hedge w/ Bears ML), I would have:

Colts Win and Cover = 150% profit of Colts bet
Colts Win/Bears Cover = 150% profit of Colts bet
Bears Win = -100% loss of Colts bet

Which would equate to an average of 67% profit of my Indy ML over the 3 plays

I’ve equated the %’s, and because I feel that Indy has about a 85% chance to win, and a 35% chance to cover, I think this is the way to go. If I wanted to ensure profit, I could throw more than 10% on Bears ML, but as I think they only have about a 15% chance to win, I don’t want to throw too much on it. We will see what happens.

I have not made any of these plays on the Bears yet, so these % are rough right now, and as always, I will look to maximize value with in-game betting.

If I had to recommend a pick to someone who had no Indy ML pending, I probably would lean to taking the Bears and the points, but I also like Indy to win the game. So that is why I feel cautiously confident in my position, and why I like the fact that I will set myself up to have great chance at a good day, a decent chance at an incredible day, and a only a mediocre chance at a slightly subpar day. Indy could cover, so I would not bet more than I am willing and able to lose on the Bears +7.5

I look forward to hearing comments both good and bad.

Good luck on your wagers.